(2-4) Miami Dolphins Vs. (4-3) New York Jets (-3.5)
1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 01, 2009
Giants Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
The 2-4 Miami Dolphins travel to New York to take on the 4-3 Jets for their second meeting of the year in what has amounted to a must win game for Miami. These two faced off in a Monday Night Football shootout 3 weeks ago resulting in a late Dolphins 31-27 victory on a 2 yard Ronnie Brown touchdown run out of the Wildcat in the closing minutes. Since then Miami enjoyed their bye week before suffering yet another, of what has now become an all too familiar heart-breaking loss to the New Orleans Saints. Miami had both Indianapolis and San Diego on the ropes with a punishing running game and ball control offense only to allow victory to slip through their fingers by way of Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers’ big play after big play. Meanwhile, the Jets suffered a surprising home loss to the Buffalo Bills before bouncing back last week in Oakland with a 38-0 throttling of the Raiders. The Raiders are good for the old self-esteem. With the Jets feeling good about themselves and clearly seeking revenge on a Dolphins team that finds themselves back on their heels and in desperate need of a win to avoid falling 3 games behind both the Jets and new England Patriots.
WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL:
The Jets defense was extremely unhappy after allowing Chad Henne, in only his second NFL start, complete 20 of 26 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns, one of which was a pivotal 53 yard touchdown strike passed three Jets defenders to Dolphins public enemy #1, Ted Ginn. Jets linebacker Calvin Pace made his sentiments clear after that game by saying of Henne, “We made him look like Dan Marino. They did what they wanted to do, and they did it at will.” Rest assured, the Jets did their homework in the film room will make their adjustments on the field. Tony Sparano is fully aware of this and though the base offense will likely remain the same there will have to be new things thrown at this jets defense to avoid them crowding the box to stop the Wildcat and pinning back their ears and getting after Henne. That said, they cannot abandon what they do best, moving the ball and chewing clock. The Dolphins do still lead the NFL in third-down efficiency (53.8 percent) and are second behind New England in time of possession (34:04 to the Patriots’ 34:22) behind their #2 ranked rushing offense in the league averaging 170.3 yards per game. The Jets will also be forced to stop the Dolphins physical ground game tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams without their best defensive lineman in the middle, run stopper Kris Jenkins is lost for the year with an ACL tear. This doesn’t bode well for Nre York considering they ran for over 150 yards against them with their best run stopper. Miami’s offensive line played great and has since then after a rough start to the year. They handled the Jets aggressive blitz package exceptionally well in their first meeting and they can expect to see the blitz just as frequently with some new wrinkles in hopes to confuse the Dolphins in pass protection situations. It’s a broken record at this point but it’s certainly worth repeating until someone steps up in the receiving corps and assumes the role of being the go-to guy. Tight end Anthony Fasano has been a ghost while Ted Ginn wishes he were one. Davone Bess and Brian Hartline deservedly will be the starters this week after Ginn has been relegated to the practice squad and kick return duties.
WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL:
It’s unfortunate for the Jets that all-purpose back Leon Washington is lost for the year with a compound fracture to his. He will be sorely missed because what he brings to the Jets offense and return game cannot be replaced. Behind both Washington and Thomas Jones the Jets are averaging 184.9 yards per game on the ground to lead the NFL and in their first meeting Washington appeared close to breaking a long touchdown nearly every time he touched the ball. Jets wide receiver was a one man wrecking crew against Miami and almost single handedly won the game for them after being traded to them just days before. Struggling rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez and Edwards now have almost a month of working together and they will look to attack the suddenly depleted Dolphins after losing starting corner Will Allen for the year with an ACL injury. Rookie Vontae Davis will take his sport while fellow rookie Sean Smith will man the other side. Both are talented and have played well thus far in a platoon role but now the stage is theirs and the Jets will look to put them on an island as much as possible. It’s crucial they play well and don’t rely too much on safety help from the struggling safeties Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson. Tight end Dustin Keller poses a huge threat as well considering the Dolphins have been gashed by opposing tight ends all year long. In fact, anyone in the middle of the field has found success against us. It’s a mystery to me how receivers are able to continually run freely down the middle of the field against the Fins secondary.
KEY MATCHUP:
Vontae Davis and Sean Smith Vs. Braylon Edwards
In their first meeting Edwards hauled in 5 passes for 64 yards and a touchdown and nearly scored another before replay ruled him down at the 6” yard line after the Dolphins allowed him to streak down the sideline and make a huge play on 3rd and 22. That can never happen again! Granted, Smith and Davis have 3 more games under their belt since then but they are still rookies and aside from just playing good football it’s vital they avoid the big mistake and limit mistakes altogether.
FEARLESS PREDICTION:
The Dolphins have yet to win on the road and they will play 4 of their next 5 away from LandShark Stadium with their only break coming on a November 15th when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the short trip to Miami. As much as I hate to see injuries because they affect these guys lives but you also ideally like to face and beat other teams, especially division rivals, at full strength they seem likely to pay a key role in this game. The Jets will struggle to stop the run without Jenkins. They will certainly not be as dangerous in the return game or on 3rd down without Washington and the Dolphins are forced to start a rookie at each corner after losing Allen. Who will be more successful and exploiting the chinks in their oppositions armor? I don’t feel great about this game considering the Jets have played us once and they know exactly what to expect from us, we are starting two rookie corners albeit talented rookies and we’re going on the road where we’ve struggled against a team that we’ve already beaten once. All these things stack up against Miami more than help Miami. Yet still, this is the most resilient team we’ve had in many years and frankly, I just think we’re better than the Jets and after putting 31 up on them last time I feel like at the very least we can outscore them if it comes to that.
Dolphins 24
Jets 23
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