I was feeling purty good about this week too. Ouch. Just can’t seem to get over that .500 hump. There’s always next week.
NY Giants (3-0) @ Kansas City (0-3) +9.5
The Chiefs might be the worst team in the league while the Giants might be the best. This is the 2nd straight road game for the banged up Giants, which is really a tough task but I just tend to think they are so much better that it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs challenging here.
Giants 23-13
GIANTS 27-16
Same ole same ole Giants. Same ole same old Chiefs. Game was nowhere near as close as the score.
Baltimore (3-0) @ New England (2-1) -1.5
The numbers make this game look like an obvious Ravens win but there’s just something terrifying betting against a Tom Brady, Bill Belichek wounded animal. Some things just don’t make sense so despite all the obvious Ravens advantages I reluctantly love the Patriots here. Oxymoron, maybe, Tom Brady, yes.
Patriots 34-30
PATRIOTS 27-21
Tom Brady and the Patriots are getting closer and closer to clicking offensively, which strikes fear into the rest of the league. The Ravens are good and something tells me these two will meet again in January.
*Cincinnati (2-1) @ Cleveland (0-3) +5.5
The Bengals are for real, the Brown are a joke with one of the worst offenses in recent memory. Not only do I think Cinci wins but I will be shocked if it’s even close, in fact, it’s my favorite bet of the week, which means Cleveland will probably clobber them.
Bengals 30-13
BENGALS 23-20
Derek Anderson kept this game a lot closer than expected but it wasn’t enough as the Bengals move to 3-1 and atop the AFC Central. Cinci needs to find their offensive groove if they hope to stay there though.
Seattle (1-2) @ Indianapolis (3-0) -8.5
The Colts offense is remarkable as long as #11 is under center and they always seem to play that much better on their home turf while the Seahawks are notoriously bad on the road and will be playing again without their leader Matt Hasselback. Tough combination.
Colts 31-20
COLTS 34-17
Peyton Manning and the Colts are 4-0 yet again and getting better every week. Seattle never had a chance.
Detroit (1-2) @ Chicago (2-1) -10.5
The Lions are hot right now and will go to Soldier Field feeling great about themselves. Jay Cutler has been playing better than you think and should be able to outscore the Lions with the banged up Bears defense playing better than expected without Brian Urlacher.
Bears 23-13
BEARS 48-24
The Lions hung in for the better part of 3 quarters at 21-21 before the Bears and Jay Cutler exploded to a whopping 48-24 route. The Lions are getting better and the Bears are starting to gel offensively.
*Tampa Bay (0-3) @ Washington (1-2) -6.5
The Bucs are horrible offensively and will be starting Josh Johnson at QB, um, who? Not to mention the fact they’re asking him to go on the road to play a team that just got beat by the Detroit Lions ending that 19 game losing streak. No thank you.
Redskins 27-13
REDSKINS 16-13
I think it’s safe now to throw the Redskins into the same category as the Bucs, Lions, Raiders, Rams and Browns, which is not the category you want to be in. Just a putrid game and the fact the Redskins went to the wire with the Bucs at home a week after getting beat by Detroit tells you how bad the Redskins really are.
Oakland (1-2) @ Houston (1-2) -9.5
I hate everything about this pick. The Raiders are a dumpster fire with Jamarcus Russell playing horribly but they do have a pretty good offensive line with really good backs when they hold onto the ball and a decent defense. I could see Houston winning 54-6 but I’m picking the Raiders to cover because I’m stupid.
Texans 26-17
TEXANS 29-6
Holy smokes are the Raider horrible. Wow. Even when you know this fact it is still mind boggling how bad they are. Houston completely stuffed the Raiders running game after letting each of their previous 3 opponents run right through them.
Tennessee (0-3) @ Jacksonville (1-2) +2.5
It’s hard to imagine the Titans going 0-4 but they are clearly not the Titans we have grown accustomed to despite losing very hard fought and close games. Shockingly it’s the Titan defense that has been the letdown. They will bounce back and even though the Jags are coming off a win they have not played well.
Titans 27-20
TITANS 37-17
It appears the 0-4 Titans have quit on Head Coach Jeff Fisher after allowing the struggling Jags to blow them off the field. Hard to believe but hard to argue.
Buffalo (1-2) @ Miami (0-3) +2.5
The Chad Henne era begins. Miami has played well against the run and been gouged through the air while the Bills have struggled in their passing game with Trent Edwards but their ground game has been great. Something has to give and I’m a Dolphins fan so there!
Dolphins 27-16
DOLPHINS 38-10
The Phins break into the win column in impressive fashion by dominating the Bills on both sides of the ball. Believe it or not the Dolphins boast the #3 ranked rushing offense and are also ranked #3 against the run. Two numbers that usually results in lots of wins. Hmmm…
NY Jets (3-0) @ New Orleans (3-0) -6.5
A battle of two undefeated teams. Mark Sanchez and the nyj have to be one of the biggest surprises of the season thus far and no rookie QB has ever even started 3-0 let alone 4-0 so the odds are already in the Saints favor. Aside from that Drew Brees has this team rolling and Pierre Thomas hase brought to life their running game making them even more frightening.
Saints 27-17
SAINTS 24-10
Mark Sanchez, Earth. Earth, Mark Sanchez. Three picks by the rookie was more than enough for Drew Brees and the Saints offense against the blitz happy nyj defensive scheme.
*St. Louis (0-3) @ San Francisco (2-1) -9.5
The Rams are a disaster offensively and must play without Marc Bulger and Laurent Robinson against the 49ers defense that held Adrian Peterson to 80 yards rushing. The Niners will be without Frank Gore but Glen Coffee has proven to be more than capable.
49ers 28-10
49ers 35-0
49ers defense outscored both their own offense and the entire Rams team after scoring 3 touchdowns. The Rams are a lock for the 1st pick in next April’s draft while the 49ers are quietly one of the best teams in the NFL over the past 11 games dating to last year with an impressive 8-3 record.
Dallas (2-1) @ Denver (3-0) +3.5
The Broncos have looked great defensively and they are 3-0 but I firmly believe it’s all smoke and mirrors while the Cowboys have played so inconsistently offensively but are very close to being excellent. Marion Barber and Felix Jones might both be out but even then I can’t see this Broncos team sitting at 4-0.
Cowboys 24-20
COWBOYS 17-10
I still think the Broncos are the worst 4-0 team in the history of the NFL after the Cowboys handed them this game to go along with their fluky week 1 win over Cinci. That said the Broncos are playing excellent on defense and Kyle Orton is making the Jay Cutler debacle seem like a blessing. As for the Cowboys, Tony Romo continues to struggle.
San Diego (2-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-2) -6.5
Pittsburgh is a tough place to play and when the west coast goes east it usually spells doom but I think the Chargers have enough offensively to keep it close, especially with the Steelers missing their defensive leader Troy Polamalu.
Steelers 23-17
STEELERS 38-28
The Steelers are tough at home but they dismantled the enigmatic Chargers and if it wasn’t for a late surge by Phillip Rivers and Co. this could have easily been a 20+ point blow out. That’s saying something considering the Chargers think they are Super Bowl worthy. Looks like the defending Champs aren’t willing to relinquish their crown just yet.
Monday, October 05
Green Bay (2-1) @ Minnesota (3-0) -3.5
And so it begins… the Brett Favre vs. Green Bay Packers era. Favre tends to play out of body in these type of games and I have a hunch the Vikings at home will be so physical that AP dominates late in the game.
Vikings 24-17
This week ATS: 6-7
Season to Date ATS: 29-32
This week Best Bets: 1-2
Season to Date Best Bets: 3-9
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