(3-1) new york jets @ (1-3) Miami Dolphins +1.5
In the first of many head to head battles between young quarterbacks Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez in one of the fiercest rivalries in football collide for the first of their two meetings Monday night in LandShark Stadium with more than just one win in the win column at stake. The Dolphins find themselves in what amounts to a must-win game at 1-3 with their next four games against the nyj twice, the Saints and the Patriots on the horizon. Not much room for error after the dug themselves into that hole. The Dolphins will look to continue stuffing the run, forcing turnovers combined with running and protecting the ball while the jets will attack the Phins feverishly with every kind of blitz possible hoping to force mistakes to help out rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez.
WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL:
The jets are loaded with talent defensively with three former Pro Bowlers in the front seven with nose tackle Kris Jenkins, defensive end Shaun Ellis and linebacker Bart Scott. Their secondary is just as solid with All Pro corner Darrelle Revis and former Pro Bowler Kerry Rhodes at safety. According to ESPN the jets blitz 62 percent of the time compared to the league average of just over 35 percent yet shockingly they have only 4 sacks on the year to show for it. They are still creating a disturbance despite that meager total and the Dolphins allowed Chad Henne to get sacked 6 times last week to the leagues 28th ranked defense. Clearly Tony Sparano is fully aware of the importance of protecting Henne and it’s safe to assume that extra time will be spent with the backs and o-line in pass protection as well as play calling that will use the jets own aggressiveness against them exactly the way Don Shula and Dan Marino attacked the Buddy Ryan blitz happy Chicago Bears in that classic Monday Nighter in 1985 where the Dolphins massacred the 12-0 Bears 38-24 handing them the only loss that season. Marino made the blitzing Bears pay by quick hitting passes accumulating over 300 yards passing in the first half alone. Ironically, the jets Head Coach Rex Ryan, is Buddy’s son. Much like that dominant Bears defense this jets team has equally impressive statistics. They didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until the third game of the season against the Titans and last week they only gave up 10 points to Drew Brees and the NFL’s top scoring offense, which means Miami has their work cut out for them as points will be at a premium and must counter the jets defense with their #1 ranked ground game averaging 183.5 yards per game. It goes without saying but the Dolphins cannot turn the ball over or help out the jets with drive killing penalties that put them in unfavorable down and distance situations.
WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL:
The Dolphins run defense is ranked 3rd in the and the jets rushing offense isn’t really all that potent, however, Leon Washington is always dangerous and the jets love getting him touches through the air where Miami struggles in coverage from the line backers and safeties although last week against the Bills they dominated forcing 6 sacks and 3 interceptions collectively only allowing 10 points. The Bills aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut to speak of but considering the jets mounted nothing offensively against New Orleans and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez came back to earth throwing three interceptions, which is very encouraging considering the Saints are hardly an intimidating defensive unit. Platooning rookie corners Vontae Davis and Sean Smith have played as well as could be asked on one side with the usual reliable Will Allen giving opposing receivers fits on the other side. Safeties Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell played their best game of the year against the Bills so if they can play at that level again the jets may have difficulty finding points.
KEY MATCHUP:
Dolphins Offensive Line Vs. jets Front Seven
If the Dolphins can’t pick up the jets blitz they will struggle to move the ball and it’s hard to score if you can’t move the ball. The Dolphins will look to slow that pass rush down through the run with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams trying to avoid obvious passing situations. Easier said than done.
FEARLESS PREDICTION:
I suspect a battle for field position with both offenses playing very conservatively as to avoid the big mistake. The team the makes the least amount of mistakes in terms of turnovers, big plays and penalties will likely be victorious. That’s hardly a profound statement but I can’t see either team playing well from behind.
Dolphins 17-13
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