Dolphins Need Sweep of Jets to Keep Pace in AFC East

By Ronn Burner • on October 28, 2009

(2-4) Miami Dolphins Vs. (4-3) New York Jets (-3.5)

1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 01, 2009
Giants Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

The 2-4 Miami Dolphins travel to New York to take on the 4-3 Jets for their second meeting of the year in what has amounted to a must win game for Miami. These two faced off in a Monday Night Football shootout 3 weeks ago resulting in a late Dolphins 31-27 victory on a 2 yard Ronnie Brown touchdown run out of the Wildcat in the closing minutes. Since then Miami enjoyed their bye week before suffering yet another, of what has now become an all too familiar heart-breaking loss to the New Orleans Saints. Miami had both Indianapolis and San Diego on the ropes with a punishing running game and ball control offense only to allow victory to slip through their fingers by way of Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers’ big play after big play. Meanwhile, the Jets suffered a surprising home loss to the Buffalo Bills before bouncing back last week in Oakland with a 38-0 throttling of the Raiders. The Raiders are good for the old self-esteem. With the Jets feeling good about themselves and clearly seeking revenge on a Dolphins team that finds themselves back on their heels and in desperate need of a win to avoid falling 3 games behind both the Jets and new England Patriots.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL:
The Jets defense was extremely unhappy after allowing Chad Henne, in only his second NFL start, complete 20 of 26 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns, one of which was a pivotal 53 yard touchdown strike passed three Jets defenders to Dolphins public enemy #1, Ted Ginn. Jets linebacker Calvin Pace made his sentiments clear after that game by saying of Henne, “We made him look like Dan Marino. They did what they wanted to do, and they did it at will.” Rest assured, the Jets did their homework in the film room will make their adjustments on the field. Tony Sparano is fully aware of this and though the base offense will likely remain the same there will have to be new things thrown at this jets defense to avoid them crowding the box to stop the Wildcat and pinning back their ears and getting after Henne. That said, they cannot abandon what they do best, moving the ball and chewing clock. The Dolphins do still lead the NFL in third-down efficiency (53.8 percent) and are second behind New England in time of possession (34:04 to the Patriots’ 34:22) behind their #2 ranked rushing offense in the league averaging 170.3 yards per game. The Jets will also be forced to stop the Dolphins physical ground game tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams without their best defensive lineman in the middle, run stopper Kris Jenkins is lost for the year with an ACL tear. This doesn’t bode well for Nre York considering they ran for over 150 yards against them with their best run stopper. Miami’s offensive line played great and has since then after a rough start to the year. They handled the Jets aggressive blitz package exceptionally well in their first meeting and they can expect to see the blitz just as frequently with some new wrinkles in hopes to confuse the Dolphins in pass protection situations. It’s a broken record at this point but it’s certainly worth repeating until someone steps up in the receiving corps and assumes the role of being the go-to guy. Tight end Anthony Fasano has been a ghost while Ted Ginn wishes he were one. Davone Bess and Brian Hartline deservedly will be the starters this week after Ginn has been relegated to the practice squad and kick return duties.

WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL:
It’s unfortunate for the Jets that all-purpose back Leon Washington is lost for the year with a compound fracture to his. He will be sorely missed because what he brings to the Jets offense and return game cannot be replaced. Behind both Washington and Thomas Jones the Jets are averaging 184.9 yards per game on the ground to lead the NFL and in their first meeting Washington appeared close to breaking a long touchdown nearly every time he touched the ball. Jets wide receiver was a one man wrecking crew against Miami and almost single handedly won the game for them after being traded to them just days before. Struggling rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez and Edwards now have almost a month of working together and they will look to attack the suddenly depleted Dolphins after losing starting corner Will Allen for the year with an ACL injury. Rookie Vontae Davis will take his sport while fellow rookie Sean Smith will man the other side. Both are talented and have played well thus far in a platoon role but now the stage is theirs and the Jets will look to put them on an island as much as possible. It’s crucial they play well and don’t rely too much on safety help from the struggling safeties Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson. Tight end Dustin Keller poses a huge threat as well considering the Dolphins have been gashed by opposing tight ends all year long. In fact, anyone in the middle of the field has found success against us. It’s a mystery to me how receivers are able to continually run freely down the middle of the field against the Fins secondary.

KEY MATCHUP:
Vontae Davis and Sean Smith Vs. Braylon Edwards
In their first meeting Edwards hauled in 5 passes for 64 yards and a touchdown and nearly scored another before replay ruled him down at the 6” yard line after the Dolphins allowed him to streak down the sideline and make a huge play on 3rd and 22. That can never happen again! Granted, Smith and Davis have 3 more games under their belt since then but they are still rookies and aside from just playing good football it’s vital they avoid the big mistake and limit mistakes altogether.

FEARLESS PREDICTION:
The Dolphins have yet to win on the road and they will play 4 of their next 5 away from LandShark Stadium with their only break coming on a November 15th when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the short trip to Miami. As much as I hate to see injuries because they affect these guys lives but you also ideally like to face and beat other teams, especially division rivals, at full strength they seem likely to pay a key role in this game. The Jets will struggle to stop the run without Jenkins. They will certainly not be as dangerous in the return game or on 3rd down without Washington and the Dolphins are forced to start a rookie at each corner after losing Allen. Who will be more successful and exploiting the chinks in their oppositions armor? I don’t feel great about this game considering the Jets have played us once and they know exactly what to expect from us, we are starting two rookie corners albeit talented rookies and we’re going on the road where we’ve struggled against a team that we’ve already beaten once. All these things stack up against Miami more than help Miami. Yet still, this is the most resilient team we’ve had in many years and frankly, I just think we’re better than the Jets and after putting 31 up on them last time I feel like at the very least we can outscore them if it comes to that.

Dolphins 24
Jets 23

Burner’s Fearless Recap Vol. 7

By Ronn Burner • on October 26, 2009

Well, so much for my alternating weeks theory! Let’s see where I went wrong…

If the pattern continues of alternating good and bad weeks than I should have a good week here… but don’t go mortgaging your home to follow these picks. Not that any of you would ever be dumb enough to do that for a 44-46 handicapper. Yikes!

Asterisk (*) denotes Best Bets.

San Diego (2-3) @ Kansas City (1-5) +4.5
Arrowhead is always a tough place to play and the Chiefs are coming off a big win in Washington while the Chargers collapsed at home in a must win to division rival Denver. The Chargers should blow them out but they won’t because they have underachieved for years now.
Chargers 27-23

CHARGERS 37-7

Welp. Chargers blew them out.

Minnesota (6-0) @ Pittsburgh (4-2) -4.5
Two certain playoff bound teams bang heads in one of the games of the week. Brett Favre has accounted for at least 2 wins by himself but the Vikings are not quite as good as advertised. Pittsburgh has a healthy Troy Polomalu now making that defense one of the best in the league.
Steelers 30-20

STEELERS 27-17

I actually wasn’t far off on this one although it took a last second pick 6 for me to cover. Both teams showed why they are and will continue to be title contenders.

*Green Bay (3-2) @ Cleveland (1-5) +6.5
The Browns are playing better with Derek Anderson at quarterback but after pitching a 26-0 shutout at home to Detroit last week it looks like the Packers may have found themselves a little bit. Green Bay should be at least a touchdown better than the Cleveland.
Packers 27-16

PACKERS 31-3

Blowout city. The Brown offense is horrible and the Packers have allowed only a field goal the past two weeks which is impressive even if it is against the armpit of the league. Oh yeah, and one of my Best Bets. Yes!

New England (4-2) @ Tamps Bay (0-6) +14.5
The Patriot embarrassed the Titans last week with mind-boggling number in a little more than a half from Tom Brady in route to a 59-0 thumping. They are not likely to take the foot off the gas against the lowly Bucs.
Patriots 34-13

PATRIOTS 35-7

Another great call by me, not like I went out on a limb or anything. The Patriots are downright scary again and as each week passes they are looking more and more like the Pats of old. Yikes!

San Francisco (3-2) @ Houston (3-3) -3.5
The 49ers went into last weeks bye after getting hammered by Atlanta and should be ready to bounce back but the Texans have been steadily improving and are a very good offense team and should be able to find success through the air.
Texans 24-20

TEXANS 24-21

Again I almost nailed this one exactly yet I still lose the game. Rats! It hurts even more after watching the Texans mount a 21-0 halftime lead.

*Indianapolis (5-0) @ St. Louis (0-6) +12.5
The Colts are possessed right now and should have little trouble scoring against the pathetic Rams even though they are coming off their best game of the year losing a heart breaker to the Jags in OT. Peyton Manning is just too much for them to handle.
Colts 35-17

COLTS 42-6

Best Bet #2! 2-0 Baby! Whoo hoo! Don’t worry… wait until we get to Best Bet #3. Yeah, anyway… Peyton doing what Peyton does. It could have been much uglier but the classy Colts made no serious attempts at scoring in the second half.

Buffalo (2-4) @ Carolina (2-3) -3.5
Carolina finally got their running game going last week with DeAngelo Williams gaining over 150 yards and Jonathan Stewart adding 117 of his own. The problem is Jake Delhomme continues to play poorly and Buffalo play great last week in upsetting the Jets on the Road.
Panthers 26-20

BILLS 20-9

Are the Bills better than we though or are the Panthers really this bad? Maybe a little bit of both but either way I was waay off on this one.

NY Jets (3-3) @ Oakland (2-4) +6.5
Two weeks ago and this game would have looked like a Jets blowout victory but after losing to Miami and at home to Buffalo they are reeling and Mark Sanchez is finally playing like a rookie. The Raiders as dysfunctional as they are have been playing sound defense and are coming off a huge upset over the Eagles.
Jets 20-17

JETS 38-0

Should have stuck with my “two weeks ago” thoughts. Raiders are such a joke and the Jets are a little Jeckle and Hyde which make them so difficult to predict.

*Chicago (3-2) @ Cincinnati (4-2) -1.5
These two teams are a roller coaster of good and bad play. Just when you think the Bengals are for real they start playing like the Bengals we’re used to seeing. The Bears are also struggling with consistency and are in a must win to keep the division title within reach.
Bears 30-28

BENGALS 45-10

Ande here we are… Best Bet #3. Whoops. I’ll still take 2-1 but I couldn’t have been further off on this one. I’m not nearly as embarassed as the Bears are or should be after allowing the Bengals to score on their first 7 possessions! And the roller coaster ride for these two teams continues.

New Orleans (5-0) @ Miami (2-3) +6.5
The Saints are an offensive juggernaut and shredded the #1 ranked defense of the Giants last week. The Dolphins are ball control offense that is very dangerous with their Wildcat formation. Points shouldn’t be a problem. Miami always seems to keeps games close even with their shaky pass defense so I’m the homer calling for the upset.
Dolphins 28-24

SAINTS 46-34

I’m too sick to my stomach to even comment on this one. When Miami executed their game plan they were up 24-3, when the Saints executed theirs they won 46-34. And oh by the way, not only do i lose the money line on this one but I also lost the cover due to a late pick 6 to add insult to injury.

Atlanta (4-1) @ Dallas (3-2) -3.5
We keep waiting for Tony Romo and this talented Cowboys roster to explode but they just haven’t. Romo is wildly inconsistent and they keep battling injuries. Until they prove it I can’t jump on the band wagon. The Falcons are clicking and look to be a force in the playoffs.
Falcons 27-24

COWBOYS 37-21

I can’t figure out these two teams to save my life. One week they look amazing, the next they worked. This week was the Cowboys turn to dominate while the Falcons decided to take the week off.

Arizona (3-2) @ NY Giants (5-1) -6.5
The Giants return home after getting worked in New Orleans and host the Cardinals coming off their bye week. I think the Cards can find some success through the air to keep this game within reach at all times despite the Giants firepower. Giants win a close one.
Giants 27-21

CARDINALS 24-17

I thought the Cardinals had a great chance to win this game but I didn’t have the guts to call it, though I still got the cover. The Cards defense really looks great ranking #1 in the NFL against the run while the Giants offense has sputtered.

Monday, October 26
Philadelphia (3-2) @ Washington (2-4) +6.5
Philadelphia is coming off an embarrassing 13-9 loss in Oakland will look to take it out on the imploding Redskins on national television. I can’t imagine the Eagles playing as poorly as they did last week and I can’t imagine the Redskins all of the sudden playing well.
Eagles 31-20

This week: 5-7

Season to Date ATS: 49-53

This week Best Bets: 2-1

Season to Date Best Bets: 8-13

In the End, Dolphins No Match for Saints

By Ronn Burner • on October 26, 2009

	1	2	3	4	T
NOR (6-0)	3	7	14	22	46
MIA (2-4)	14	10	10	0	34

October 25, 2009

Land Shark Stadium,

Miami, FL

Same old Dolphins, dominate the first half, collapse in the second half. Same old Ted Ginn, dropping numerous catchable passes and he has actually now become detrimental to the team rather than just a monumental underachiever. Same old conservative play calling with the lead. Same old secondary, allowing opposing tight ends to dominate them, letting receivers run free down the middle of the field and giving up big plays at an alarming rate. Same old untimely turnovers, with Davone Bess’ crucial fumble sealing their fate. Same old coaches making poor decisions as it relates to the clock with a terrible decision to call a time out just before the half. The Dolphins played their hearts out but it wasn’t even close to enough when the aforementioned continues to happen.

Please forgive me for this lazy article but I am simply emotionally drained after yet another devastating loss. In many ways, this season has been more difficult than the 1-15 year. Hard to believe, but as I sit here right now it holds true.

The (2-3) Miami Dolphins had the (5-0) New Orleans Saints on the ropes for 29:55 and they let them off the hook with an inexplicable time-out with 5 seconds remaining in the first half as they Saints were seemingly forced to settle for a field goal from the Dolphins 6 inch yard line. The Dolphins were up 24-3 at that point and the Saints were out of time-outs and had their extra point unit on the field as they thought they scored a touchdown on the previous play that replay reversed and put them 6 inches out. With no time-outs left the Saints were forced to take the three as they had no time to get their offensive unit back on the field in time until the Dolphins defensive unit called timeout to “Prepare for anything” as Head Coach Tony Sparano later said trying to justify the decision. With time for Sean Payton to reconsider and with Drew Brees lobbying to go for it they did and after Brees took the plunge for the score the Dolphins lead was now 24-10 and it clearly felt like the beginning of the end.

The second half seemed like what it must feel like to be gut shot and to just lay there for 30 minutes until you bleed out and die. I don’t know how else to put it other than it was clear to Saints fans, Saints coaches and the Saints players just as it was clear to the Dolphins fans, players and coaches that New Orleans was undoubtedly coming back and winning the game. Not only did they, but they blew the Dolphins out of the water in the process. If these teams played 10 times, Miami wouldn’t win one. They just wouldn’t, the Saints are really that much better in all phases of the game and despite all the hyperbole and enthusiasm surrounding the up and coming Dolphins it shows how far they still have to go to get to the elite level.

It’s so easy to go on and on about all the mistakes made by both Dolphins players and coaches and there are certainly plenty of them to dissect but other than recognizing them in the film room and making the proper adjustments and execution on the field it’s really not productive. The truth is there were some outstanding efforts and performances on the defensive side of the ball left on the field and despite what the gaudy numbers the Saints put up might indicate. They did sack Brees 5 times, they forced him to throw three interceptions and recovered a fumble from a sack by good old number 99. In gact, Jason Taylor and Joey Porter both played like they were still in their prime harassing Brees all afternoon. JT had 2 sacks and forced 2 fumbles and spent most of the day applying pressure to Brees while Porter only added ½ sack statistically his presence was felt coming off the edge and forcing Brees either out of the pocket or to get rid of the ball quickly. Yeremiah Bell added a sack and a half coming from the safety spot and lead the team with 8 tackles. The Dolphins defense played extremely fast and aggressive but their Achilles heel all season has been allowing the big play and they allowed more than I even care to count on Sunday hence the misleading stats. Playing excellent for 2 downs and then allowing the big play has a tendency to screw up the stat sheet. Ricky Williams scored 3 touchdowns against the team that drafted him and along with running mate Ronnie Brown they both ran hard and physical like they always do. Until he went down with a season ending ACL injury, Will Allen, played like we’ve grown accustomed to with his usual blanket coverage. Sadly, Allen will be lost for the year and despite the emergence of rookie corners Vontae Davis and Sean Smith his presence, play-making ability and leadership will be sorely missed.

At the end of the day, it’s yet another heart breaking loss for the Dolphins, but they weren’t supposed to win this game anyway. They simply have to regroup, correct their mistakes, clean up the coaching blunders and try, as difficult as it may be, to forget about this loss and refocus on the fact, that despite all of these setbacks they are still 2-0 in the division. The road doesn’t get any easier as they hit the road to take on their arch rival New York Jets before heading to New England to take on the AFC East front running Patriots.

Burner’s Fearless Predictions Vol. 7

By Ronn Burner • on October 24, 2009

If the pattern continues of alternating good and bad weeks than I should have a good week here… but don’t go mortgaging your home to follow these picks. Not that any of you would ever be dumb enough to do that for a 44-46 handicapper. Yikes!

Asterisk (*) denotes Best Bets.

San Diego (2-3) @ Kansas City (1-5) +4.5
Arrowhead is always a tough place to play and the Chiefs are coming off a big win in Washington while the Chargers collapsed at home in a must win to division rival Denver. The Chargers should blow them out but they won’t because they have underachieved for years now.
Chargers 27-23

Minnesota (6-0) @ Pittsburgh (4-2) -4.5
Two certain playoff bound teams bang heads in one of the games of the week. Brett Favre has accounted for at least 2 wins by himself but the Vikings are not quite as good as advertised. Pittsburgh has a healthy Troy Polomalu now making that defense one of the best in the league.
Steelers 30-20

*Green Bay (3-2) @ Cleveland (1-5) +6.5
The Browns are playing better with Derek Anderson at quarterback but after pitching a 26-0 shutout at home to Detroit last week it looks like the Packers may have found themselves a little bit. Green Bay should be at least a touchdown better than the Cleveland.
Packers 27-16

New England (4-2) @ Tamps Bay (0-6) +14.5
The Patriot embarrassed the Titans last week with mind-boggling number in a little more than a half from Tom Brady in route to a 59-0 thumping. They are not likely to take the foot off the gas against the lowly Bucs.
Patriots 34-13

San Francisco (3-2) @ Houston (3-3) -3.5
The 49ers went into last weeks bye after getting hammered by Atlanta and should be ready to bounce back but the Texans have been steadily improving and are a very good offense team and should be able to find success through the air.
Texans 24-20

*Indianapolis (5-0) @ St. Louis (0-6) +12.5
The Colts are possessed right now and should have little trouble scoring against the pathetic Rams even though they are coming off their best game of the year losing a heart breaker to the Jags in OT. Peyton Manning is just too much for them to handle.
Colts 35-17

Buffalo (2-4) @ Carolina (2-3) -3.5
Carolina finally got their running game going last week with DeAngelo Williams gaining over 150 yards and Jonathan Stewart adding 117 of his own. The problem is Jake Delhomme continues to play poorly and Buffalo play great last week in upsetting the Jets on the Road.
Panthers 26-20

NY Jets (3-3) @ Oakland (2-4) +6.5
Two weeks ago and this game would have looked like a Jets blowout victory but after losing to Miami and at home to Buffalo they are reeling and Mark Sanchez is finally playing like a rookie. The Raiders as dysfunctional as they are have been playing sound defense and are coming off a huge upset over the Eagles.
Jets 20-17

*Chicago (3-2) @ Cincinnati (4-2) -1.5
These two teams are a roller coaster of good and bad play. Just when you think the Bengals are for real they start playing like the Bengals we’re used to seeing. The Bears are also struggling with consistency and are in a must win to keep the division title within reach.
Bears 30-28

New Orleans (5-0) @ Miami (2-3) +6.5
The Saints are an offensive juggernaut and shredded the #1 ranked defense of the Giants last week. The Dolphins are ball control offense that is very dangerous with their Wildcat formation. Points shouldn’t be a problem. Miami always seems to keeps games close even with their shaky pass defense so I’m the homer calling for the upset.
Dolphins 28-24

Atlanta (4-1) @ Dallas (3-2) -3.5
We keep waiting for Tony Romo and this talented Cowboys roster to explode but they just haven’t. Romo is wildly inconsistent and they keep battling injuries. Until they prove it I can’t jump on the band wagon. The Falcons are clicking and look to be a force in the playoffs.
Falcons 27-24

Arizona (3-2) @ NY Giants (5-1) -6.5
The Giants return home after getting worked in New Orleans and host the Cardinals coming off their bye week. I think the Cards can find some success through the air to keep this game within reach at all times despite the Giants firepower. Giants win a close one.
Giants 27-21

Monday, October 26
Philadelphia (3-2) @ Washington (2-4) +6.5
Philadelphia is coming off an embarrassing 13-9 loss in Oakland will look to take it out on the imploding Redskins on national television. I can’t imagine the Eagles playing as poorly as they did last week and I can’t imagine the Redskins all of the sudden playing well.
Eagles 31-20

Last week: 5-9

Season to Date ATS: 44-46

Last week Best Bets: 1-2

Season to Date Best Bets: 6-12

Dolphins Look to End Saints March

By Ronn Burner • on October 22, 2009

(5-0) New Orleans Saints vs. (2-3) Miami Dolphins +6.5 4:15 EST

WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL:

New Orleans is averaging an NFL-best 38.4 points per game and are coming off a 48-27 thrashing of the New York Giants #1 rated defense and Drew Brees and company even put up 34 points and 315 yards by halftime. Brees has led the Saints on opening drive touchdowns in every game so far this season and they have yet to trail for even one second all year winning each game by at least 14 points. Get the point? The Saints are an offensive juggernaut and will look to attack the Dolphins improving but still not good enough young secondary. Brees runs an extremely potent offense far more efficiently than you would think completing 69.2% of his passes with 13 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. He has weapons all over the field at his disposal including his favorite target WR Marques Colston on the receiving end of 394 yards on 25 receptions and 4 scores. As if you weren’t convinced of their firepower already than consider that Colston is 3rd on the team averaging a whopping 15.8 yards per reception, which is huge for a #1 wide receiver. WR Devery Henderson (14-241-1) is averaging 16.8 and WR Robert Meachem (6-151-2) is a big play machine with his staggering 25.2 yards per. This poses an obvious problem for a Dolphins secondary that has been less than stellar giving up numerous big plays and allowing 225 yards a game. In fairness, the Dolphins safeties, Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson, have played much better over the past two weeks and rookie corners Sean Smith and Vontae Davis have played solid and consistent football and more importantly have not made mistakes that usually plague young corners. Miami is very impressed with them on one side as they still rotate every two possessions while the always-reliable Will Allen has been excellent in both pass defense and tackling. The Saints ground game is often over looked for obvious reasons but they are averaging 157.8 yards per game on the ground lead by the talented duo of Pierre Thomas (48-284-3) and Mike Bell (60-263-2) who are averaging 5.9 and 4.4 yards per carry respectively. Oh by the way, I haven’t even mentioned Reggie Bush to tell you a little something about their overflow of weapons. The Dolphins front seven are playing inspired football and only allowing 76.4 yards a game on the ground while still applying pressure on the quarterback but this will be a different challenge than any they have faced this year and that includes Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. The Dolphins will need to do three things defensively to be successful 1.) Disrupt Dree Brees’ rhythm by disguising coverages and applying pressure, if he has time he will shred the Dolphins. 2.) Create turnovers and 3.) Much like they did with Peyton Manning they must keep Brees on the sidelines.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL:

Play Dolphins football. It’s really that simple. When the Dolphins do what they are best at they are an extremely difficult team to defend. The Wildcat and the Dolphins ground game is one of the best in the league averaging 177.0 yards a game and while the Saints are only allowing 83.4 yards per contest those numbers a bit deceiving since New Orleans is usually playing with a huge lead. Ronnie Brown (93-443-6) and Ricky Williams (61-316-2) are both playing at an exceptional level and punishing defenders with their bruising style. The Dolphins o-line has improved drastically since weeks one and two and the emergence of Chad Henne at quarterback and his ability to stretch the field and incorporating otherwise lackluster play from WR Ted Ginn and TE Anthony Fasano has made this offensive unit a force to reckon with. The one caveat being that it’s very important for the Dolphins to get on the board first. Their style of offense and those monster 12+ play pounding clock munching drives are meant to play with the lead, if they fall behind early than they are very susceptible to letting the game get out of hand early. Obviously, they will need to avoid that by not only marching and keeping the Saints offense sidelined but also protecting the football and wearing their defense down in the process.

KEY MATCHUP:

Dolphins Front 4 vs. Drew Brees

It’s hard to imagine the Dolphins slowing down the Saints high-powered offense without disrupting Brees and his timing with his receivers without constant pressure on him. The bigger the push up front by Jason Ferguson, Kendall Langford and Randy Starks the more things can go right for Miami such as batted balls, quicker decisions by Brees resulting in check downs, interceptions or incomplete passes not to mention the opportunity for Jason Taylor, Phillip Merling and Joey Porter to add to their sack totals. Quite simply, the more time Brees has to get comfortable in the pocket the more points the Saints will score.

FEARLESS PREDICTION:

This game is really a battle of game plans and styles if you ask me. Finesse versus power. The Saints will come out swinging looking for the homerun from the start. The Dolphins will come out and try to impose their will with a physical time consuming drive. Both are very good at what they do and whichever team finds the most success at executing their game plan will most likely be victorious. I believe the Saints have obstacles they have yet to face such as the heat and grass in Miami, the physicality of the home team, the length of time between offensive series and the Dolphins are hungry and aggressive and in a more desperate situation as they simply need this game more to keep up with the Patriots.

Saints 24

Dolphins 28

Burner’s Fearless Roundup Vol. 6

By Ronn Burner • on October 19, 2009

Just another wild and wacky weekend in the NFL.

- Two shutouts.

- Two overtime games.

- 59 point victory.

- Raiders and Bills win.

- Giants and Eagles lose.

All in all I fell apart going 5-8 thus far and still have a game to go tonight to hopefully bring my overall record even at 45-45. Yikes!

Asterisk (*) denotes Best Bets

NY Giants (5-0) @ New Orleans (4-0) -3.5
The Saints are at home coming off a BYE and Drew Brees is due for a huge game but the Giants are as solid across the board as anybody and nobody should be favored by more that a field goal against them, which actually scares me since the Saints are favored by this much. I’m biting and taking the Giants in a shootout.
Giants 34-31

SAINTS 48-27

The Saints put up 34 points by halftime on the #1 rated overall defense and #1 against the pass in the NFL, make that formerly #1 ranked defense. This Saints offense is sick. The Giants are still an elite team but it’s just scary that the Saints could do this to them.

*St. Louis (0-5) @ Jacksonville (2-3) -9.5
Marc Bulger should help the Rams offense but then again so could Ryan Leaf. The Jags are coming off a 41-0 drubbing in Seattle so getting the Rams at home should be the perfect way to get over it. I think MJD, David Garrard and Mike Sims-Walker come to life and get pull to .500.
Jaguars 24-13

JAGUARS 23-20 OT

The Rams are a much better team with a healthy Marc Bulger at quarterback but they still have a long way to go. The Jags bounced back from a 41-0 drubbing in Seattle last week but still can’t feel great having been taken to overtime by the bottom feeding Rams.

Houston (2-3) @ Cincinnati (4-1) -4.5
The Texans are very good offensively but they can’t stop anybody. The Bengals are pretty good defensively but their offense isn’t nearly as good as people think. I think the Texans can score with Cinci.
Bengals 27-23

TEXANS 28-17

Just when you think the Bengals are for real they lay an egg on their home turf to an underachieving opponent. At 3-3 the Texans can score with anybody and if their defense plays like this they very well make a playoff push.

Cleveland (1-4) @ Pittsburgh (3-2) -14.5
It’s hard for me to imagine the Browns stopping the Steelers and it’s even harder to imagine them scoring with the return of Troy Polamolu. I see 5 Brown turnovers. That said the Steelers don’t cover and have given up late scores so I sense a back door Browns cover.
Steelers 30-17

STEELERS 27-14

The Steelers did what they do and the Browns played hard but they were just out classed. A big day for the Steelers with both division threats, Baltimore and Cincinnati, losing.

Carolina (1-3) @ Tampa Bay (0-5) +3.5
Both of these teams are terrible, they really are. That said I think the Bucs QB Josh Johnson or whatever his name is might actually be pretty decent and they are a home dog and I think they can keep it to a field goal.
Panthers 16-13

PANTHERS 28-21

Carolina finally found success on the ground with DeAngelo Williams rushing for 150 yards and running mate Jonathan Stewart adding 117 of his own. Jake Delhomme continues to struggle keeping the Bucs in the game with a gift pick 6 late.

Baltimore (3-2) @ Minnesota (5-0) -2.5
In the battle of two of the more over rated teams in the league, although they are both still very good, there are obvious chinks in their armor. The Ravens pass defense is suspect and Brett Favre will look to take advantage of it. It is hard to imagine the Ravens losing 3 in a row but they’re about to.
Vikings 23-20

VIKINGS 33-31

Brett Favre played excellent again and probably deserves the credit for yet another Vikings win. The Ravens offense came to life but their defense uncharacteristically couldn’t seem to stop the Vikings offense. Both playoff bound certainties.

Detroit (1-4) @ Green Bay (2-2) -13.5
The Lions are no longer the laughing stock of the league and there are at least 8 teams worse than them. I think Green Bay is vastly over rated and expect the Lions to stay within striking distance throughout. They can score and this line is too high.
Packers 27-20

PACKERS 26-20

The Lions posed little threat as Aaron Rodgers put two quick touchdowns on the board and never looked back.

*Kansas City (0-5) @ Washington (2-3) -6.5
How the hell are the Redskins a 6.5 point favorite against anybody!?
Chiefs 23-13

CHIEFS 14-6

The Redskins are quickly becoming one of the worst teams in the league. Get this: they have yet to face an opponent with a win under the belt… until of course they hand them one by losing to the otherwise winless opponent. Jim Zorn will be unemployed very soon.

*Philadelphia (3-1) @ Oakland (1-4) +13.5
Next…
Eagles 38-6

RAIDERS 13-9

In the shocker of the weekend the Eagles inexplicably allowed the Raiders to embarrass them while holding them to 9 points. The Eagles are clearly better than the Raiders still but it just goes to show you “that’s why they play the game”.

Arizona (2-2) @ Seattle (2-3) -2.5
Seattle is good at home and the Cardinals are bad on the road. There are major injury concerns with the entire Seahawks o-line but they do get Matt Hasselback back and the Cardinals defense will give up points. The Seahawks torched the Jaguars last week 41-0.
Seattle 28-23

CARDINALS 27-3

The one game I wish I would have listened to my own thoughts instead of being persuaded to go the other way. I liked Arizona because they can score and the Seahawks are a mash unit with injuries all over their offensive line and quarterback Matt Hasselback yet I still picked them like a dummy. The Cardinals did what they do and Seattle is back to reality after their 41-0 rout of Jacksonville last week.

Tennessee (0-5) @ New England (3-2) -9.5
One of these weeks the Patriots are going to explode offensively and the Titans season is over and they seem to have lost their will. I think Tom Brady and Randy Moss light it up against the weak Titans secondary.
Patriots 34-13

PATRIOTS 59-0

Wow. Tom Brady was 29-34 for 380 yards and 6 touchdowns until he was pulled after only one drive in the 2nd half. Shame on the Titans for quitting and good for the Patriots for making them pay for it. The rest of the league better take notice becuase it looks like the Patriots are finding their groove.

Buffalo (1-4) @ NY Jets (3-2) -9.5
The Jets return home after a tough loss in Miami and look to destroy a Buffalo team that is in shambles. Buffalo only managed to score two field goals against the lowly Browns. The Jets blitz will devour them and score at least once.
Jets 27-0

BILLS 16-13 OT

Mark Sanchez is learning that life isn’t always as easy as it once appeared falling to the struggling Bills while throwing 5 interceptions. The reeling Jets blitzing scheme has failed them 2 weeks in a row after falling in Miami last week. The Bills confused Sanchez and the cold and windy weather obviously affected some of his throws.

Chicago (3-1) @ Atlanta (3-1) -3.5
I do not believe in Jay Cutler one bit. I don’t understand why he is deemed a star. I expect at least two interceptions against a very good Falcons defense and the Bears without Brian Urlacher will not stop a very explosive Falcons offense led by Matt Ryan.
Falcons 30-24

FALCONS 21-14

The Bears drop another game behind the Vikings in the standings to a young and talented Falcons team that improves to 4-1. A hard fought grudge match between two physical teams that was won by the Falcons defense holding off Jay Cutler and the Bears in the closing seconds.

Monday, October 19
Denver (5-0) @ San Diego (2-2) -3.5
Maybe the Broncos really are this good but I still refuse to believe it. They’ve burned me all year long but I’m bound to get one right eventually. The Chargers will be ready and need this game at home to avoid falling three games back in the division.
Chargers 31-27

BRONCOS 34-23

Ok, fine. I admit. I had zero faith in the Broncos. I’m convinced now that they are pretty darn good. I hate that they are but 6-0 in the NFL is no joke. As for the Chargers, I do believe that they are and have been one of the more over rated teams in the NFL over the past 6 years. Not sure why, they really haven’t proven anything in any game that actually matters.

Last week: 5-9

Season to Date ATS: 44-46

This week Best Bets: 1-2

Season to Date Best Bets: 6-12

Dolphins Playoff Bound! (?)

By Ronn Burner • on October 20, 2009

Things certainly looked bleak for the Miami Dolphins after starting the season 0-3 and still staring at 13 games against the league’s most difficult schedule with 2 heartbreaking losses to boot not to mention losing their starting quarterback, Chad Pennington, for the year. As we all know, things can change very quickly in the NFL. Looking at the Dolphins remaining schedule and basing it on what has transpired this year already and all of the sudden things actually look pretty good. Chad Henne looks, albeit briefly, to be what we all hoped he could be, the Wildcat is clicking on all cylinders, the O-line has gelled together beautifully, Ted Ginn showed he is capable of making a big play, the Dolphins front seven has proven to be solid and what once looked like an unmanageable schedule now appears to be very manageable with teams being nowhere near as strong as expected. Now obviously the Dolphins need to take care of business sitting at 2-3 and this outlook is based on the likelihood that it will take at least 10 wins to reach the post season meaning a strong finish of 8-3, which on paper is easy enough to calculate by winning every game you “should” win while hopefully snatching a win or two along the way from opponents that are clearly playoff calibre and losing would hardly be deemed a sin.

2009 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Time/Result
Sep 13	@Atlanta	Lost 7-19
Sep 21	Indianapolis	Lost 23-27
Sep 27	@San Diego	Lost 13-23
Oct 4	Buffalo	Won 38-10
Oct 12	N.Y. Jets	Won 31-27
Week 6	BYE
Oct 25	New Orleans	4:15pm
Nov 1	@N.Y. Jets	1:00pm
Nov 8	@New England	1:00pm
Nov 15	Tampa Bay	1:00pm
Nov 19	@Carolina	8:20pm
Nov 29	@Buffalo	1:00pm
Dec 6	New England	8:20pm
Dec 13	@Jacksonville	1:00pm
Dec 20	@Tennessee	1:00pm
Dec 27	Houston	1:00pm
Jan 3	Pittsburgh	1:00pm

Now obviously there is no way to know how things will unfold and anything can happen via injuries, performance, funny bounces, fluky plays, underachieving, overachieving etcetera etcetera but based on that schedule and how it would appear right now I think it’s safe to say the the Dolphins will be favored to win at least six of these games and possibly more. (0-6) Tampa Bay, at (2-4) Carolina, at (2-4) Buffalo, at (3-3) Jacksonville, at (0-6) Tennessee and (3-3) Houston “should” by definition be Dolphins victories. We know the Dolphins are expected to lose this week in New Orleans (-6.5) and it’s probably safe to say that Miami will be expected to lose in (4-2) New England and in the final game of the year they host the defending Super Bowl Champion (4-2) Pittsburgh Steelers in a game that will probably matter a great deal to each team and I am willing to concede to the possibility that the Dolphins could be the home underdog. If those nine games followed the letter of the Vegas line law then after doing the math (adding their current 2-3 record to the 6-3 Vegas projected record over the 9 games mentioned) Miami would have an 8-6 acccumulative record slated, which is obviously out of order based on totals as opposed to a week to week wins and losses.

Since the goal is 10 wins that leaves two games remaining that we have yet to account for and as luck would have it’s November 1st at the suddenly reeling (3-2) New York Jets whom Miami has already beaten once and December 6th against the suddenly lethal New England Patriots who the Dolphins have yet to face. Splitting with the Patriots would be considered a very good thing, however, splitting these two games may not be good enough and will leave Miami at 9-7 and with what would be under these circumstances a 4-2 division record that may or may not be good enough for a tie-breaker situation and probably wouldn’t matter since I expect both the Patriots and the Wildcard eventual winner to be at least 10-6. Point being, win the ones you should, sweep the Jets, split with the Patriots and come January the Dolphins will find themselves at 10-6 and in the Playoffs.

Burner’s Fearless Roundup Vol. 5

By Ronn Burner • on October 13, 2009

ATS predicted winners in bold.

Asterisk (*) denotes Best Bets

Oakland (1-3) @ Giants (4-0) -15.5

GIANTS 44-7

If it wasn’t for a couple blown calls costing the Giants 2 more touchdowns this game may have been 70-0. I’m not kidding. The Raiders are that bad. It’s a good thing they got that 1 win because they’re not getting another.

Dallas (2-2) @ Kansas City (0-4) +8.5

COWBOYS 26-20 OT

Miles Austin saved the day for the Cowboys who struggled yet again against a lesser team. The Cowboys are inevitably heading towards changes. They just can’t seem to get clicking.

*Minnesota (4-0) @ St. Louis (0-4) +10.5

VIKINGS 38-10

Minnesota and Brett Favre just keep motoring through people and find themselves in the drivers seat at 5-0. St. Louis just doesn’t have the weapons to compete.

Washington (2-2) @ Carolina (0-3) -3.5

PANTHERS 20-17

I’m beginning to think that Carolina is a field goal better than the likes of Cleveland, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Buffalo. Doesn’t say much for the Redskins does it?

Tampa Bay (0-4) @ Philadelphia (2-1) -13.5

EAGLES 33-14

The Eagles look to be a team possessed this year. They have weapons all over the field and are clearly headed for a key matchup with division rival New York. Winning that game would send a league wide message.

Pittsburgh (2-2) @ Detroit (1-3) +10.5

STEELERS 28-20

The Lions gave Pittsburgh more than they would have liked but in the end the Steelers held on and find themselves looking up at both Cincinnati and Baltimore. Detroit is much improved and clearly better than at least 5 teams in the league, maybe even 10.

Cleveland (0-4) @ Buffalo (1-3) -5.5

BROWNS 6-3

Holy crap. Puke.

Cincinnati (3-1) @ Baltimore (3-1) -8.5

BENGALS 17-14

The Bengals are that fluky last second touchdown in week against the Broncos from being 5-0. It’s not by accident. They are good on both sides and things are looking good. Baltimore is obviously for real in a very competitive division sans Cleveland.

Atlanta (2-1) @ San Francisco (3-1) -2.5

FALCONS 45-10

Might be the biggest shocker of the weekend. Not the Falcons victory but winning by such a wide margin raises eye brows about the 49ers.

*New England (3-1) @ Denver (4-0) +3.5

BRONCOS 20-17 OT

It’s hard to argue with what the Broncos have done moving to an impressive and surprising 5-0. We keep waiting for the Patriots to return to form but they just haven’t done so.

Houston (2-2) @ Arizona (1-2) -5.5

CARDINALS 28-21

The Texans were held at the 1 yard line on three separate occasions by the Cardinals defense. That has to hurt and isn’t supposed to happen with Steve Slaton in your backfield.

Jacksonville (2-2) @ Seattle (1-3) -1.5

SEAHAWKS 41-0

Seattle destroyed the Jaguars who just didn’t show up. 41-0 is embarrassing and things in Jacksonville are a long way from getting better. What happened?

*Indianapolis (4-0) @ Tennessee (0-4) +3.5

COLTS 31-9

Peyton Manning is playing flawlessly and on his way to another MVP award with his sights set on another ring… possibly against his brother? The Titans have to be thinking Vince Young at this point which isn’t a good sign.

Monday, October 12
NY Jets (3-1) @ Miami (1-3) +1.5

DOLPHINS 31-27

Chad Henne 1, Mark Sanhez 0. Another classic Dolphins-Jets battle that was won in the final seconds on a Ronnie Brown 2 yard touchdown run out of the Wildcat. The AFC East looks to be in for a fight.

Last week ATS: 9-5

Season to Date ATS: 39-37

Last week Best Bets: 2-1

Season to Date Best Bets: 5-10

Classic Dolphins-Jets MNF Duel

By Ronn Burner • on October 14, 2009

The Miami Dolphins Chad Henne and New York Jets Mark Sanchez got their first dose of what fans alike hope to be a decade of classic duels to add to their already storied history. Bob Griese had Joe Namath, of course, who could forget the shootouts between Dan Marino and Ken O’Brien and even Jay Fiedler and Vinny Testaverde had a few gems including that jaw dropping 31-7 4th quarter deficit the Jets overcame on Monday night in 2000. God that one still stings! Oh yeah Jets fans, you like that one? How about a big bowl of fake spike. Huh? How’d that one feel?

There’s no doubt this matchup has grown into one of the most exciting rivalries in football, where the Jets hold a slight edge in the all-time series at 46-40-1, and they didn’t disappoint Monday night in yet another classic fireworks show that resulted in a 31-27 Dolphins victory on a gutsy direct snap play call to Ronnie Brown out of the Wildcat formation with :06 left where he took it in for the 2 yard game winning touchdown.

The rookie quarterbacks each played well but Henne was nearly perfect statistically and even more impressive in his demeanor, leadership, confidence and poise. The 4-year starter out of Michigan was stellar in only his 2nd career start going 20-26 for 241 yards with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions for a whopping 130.4 rating. He led three touchdown drives of 12 plays or more, which is impressive enough for anyone let alone in your 2nd career start against a first place team. Sanchez also played well going 12-24 for 172 yards and 1 touchdown for an 87.5 rating but in Henne-Sanchez I the night belonged to the Phins quarterback. Despite all the accolades towards Jets Head Coach and defensive guru, Rex Ryan, and their aggressive exotic blitzing scheme Henne thrived even going 7-7 for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns using the play action pass. Running the Wildcat effectively 16 times was obviously a huge reason why. As a team the Dolphins amassed 413 total yards with 151 coming on the ground with Brown collecting 74 yards on 21 caries and running mate Ricky Williams rushing 11 times for 68 yards and also snatched 3 passes for 70 yards including a 59 yard screen pass that he could have scored on had he not gassed. The Dolphins gouged the Jets run defense and Henne picked apart the blitzing scheme. The Dolphins top ranked defense against the run wasn’t exactly a brick wall themselves allowing Leon Washington to carve them for 4.4 yards per carry on only 10 carries thankfully, since each one had the feeling that he could take it to the house. He looked great and it didn’t look like the Dolphins figured out how to corral him. Note to self moving forward: Must work on defending explosive and elusive runners.

Heading into the game the Dolphins had other obvious areas that needed improvement and issues that needed to be addressed and they were successful in many areas but clearly left room for improvement in others such as penalties and pass coverage. Miami desperately needed Ted Ginn to step up and they needed to find ways to make big plays offensively. They were able to do both and they did them on the same play as Ginn blew past three Jets defenders and caught a perfectly thrown Henne bomb for a huge 53-yard touchdown. It was only one play but it was huge for the Dolphins, it was huge for Henne and it was huge for Ginn who has been thrown under the bus lately by fans and the media, and I am no exception, for not emerging as the star he was expected to be. That play alone may have done wonders for Ginn’s own confidence, Henne’s confidence in him, Tony Sporano’s confidence in them both and Dolfans confidence in the Miami Dolphins chances to defend their AFC East crown.

In all honesty, and Miami most definitely deserved and earned the victory but they shot themselves in the foot so many times that had they lost they could only blame themselves in a season already filled with too many of those losses. Two faked punts that resulted in first downs and eventual points, 8 penalties for 112 yards and 4 of which were huge pass interference calls and then there was that nauseating 3rd and 22 that was converted by a magnificent pitch and catch from Sanchez to newly acquired Jets WR Braylon Edwards. Not that it mattered but there was another defensive holding on that play had Edwards not hauled it in. These mistakes nearly cost Miami the game but the fact that they were able to overcome them and win a tight battle that went down to the wire speaks volumes to this teams resolve.

The win puts Henne 1-0 over Sanchez and the Dolphins 2-0 in the division and 2-3 overall and back in contention with the Patriots and Jets who are each one game up. All of the sudden the once 0-3 Dolphins are only one game back with 11 games to play including 4 division games and they have yet to play New England. The road won’t be easy starting with Drew Brees and company coming to town after next week’s bye.

In another “Just Saying” moment that has been a longtime signature of mine I would like to add that with his 37, the all time king of the 4th quarter come from behind victory, Dan Marino, is still firmly 36 ahead of Chad Henne.

Dolphins Host Heated Rival Jets on MNF

By Ronn Burner • on October 6, 2009

(3-1) new york jets @ (1-3) Miami Dolphins +1.5

In the first of many head to head battles between young quarterbacks Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez in one of the fiercest rivalries in football collide for the first of their two meetings Monday night in LandShark Stadium with more than just one win in the win column at stake. The Dolphins find themselves in what amounts to a must-win game at 1-3 with their next four games against the nyj twice, the Saints and the Patriots on the horizon. Not much room for error after the dug themselves into that hole. The Dolphins will look to continue stuffing the run, forcing turnovers combined with running and protecting the ball while the jets will attack the Phins feverishly with every kind of blitz possible hoping to force mistakes to help out rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL:
The jets are loaded with talent defensively with three former Pro Bowlers in the front seven with nose tackle Kris Jenkins, defensive end Shaun Ellis and linebacker Bart Scott. Their secondary is just as solid with All Pro corner Darrelle Revis and former Pro Bowler Kerry Rhodes at safety. According to ESPN the jets blitz 62 percent of the time compared to the league average of just over 35 percent yet shockingly they have only 4 sacks on the year to show for it. They are still creating a disturbance despite that meager total and the Dolphins allowed Chad Henne to get sacked 6 times last week to the leagues 28th ranked defense. Clearly Tony Sparano is fully aware of the importance of protecting Henne and it’s safe to assume that extra time will be spent with the backs and o-line in pass protection as well as play calling that will use the jets own aggressiveness against them exactly the way Don Shula and Dan Marino attacked the Buddy Ryan blitz happy Chicago Bears in that classic Monday Nighter in 1985 where the Dolphins massacred the 12-0 Bears 38-24 handing them the only loss that season. Marino made the blitzing Bears pay by quick hitting passes accumulating over 300 yards passing in the first half alone. Ironically, the jets Head Coach Rex Ryan, is Buddy’s son. Much like that dominant Bears defense this jets team has equally impressive statistics. They didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until the third game of the season against the Titans and last week they only gave up 10 points to Drew Brees and the NFL’s top scoring offense, which means Miami has their work cut out for them as points will be at a premium and must counter the jets defense with their #1 ranked ground game averaging 183.5 yards per game. It goes without saying but the Dolphins cannot turn the ball over or help out the jets with drive killing penalties that put them in unfavorable down and distance situations.

WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL:
The Dolphins run defense is ranked 3rd in the and the jets rushing offense isn’t really all that potent, however, Leon Washington is always dangerous and the jets love getting him touches through the air where Miami struggles in coverage from the line backers and safeties although last week against the Bills they dominated forcing 6 sacks and 3 interceptions collectively only allowing 10 points. The Bills aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut to speak of but considering the jets mounted nothing offensively against New Orleans and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez came back to earth throwing three interceptions, which is very encouraging considering the Saints are hardly an intimidating defensive unit. Platooning rookie corners Vontae Davis and Sean Smith have played as well as could be asked on one side with the usual reliable Will Allen giving opposing receivers fits on the other side. Safeties Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell played their best game of the year against the Bills so if they can play at that level again the jets may have difficulty finding points.

KEY MATCHUP:
Dolphins Offensive Line Vs. jets Front Seven
If the Dolphins can’t pick up the jets blitz they will struggle to move the ball and it’s hard to score if you can’t move the ball. The Dolphins will look to slow that pass rush down through the run with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams trying to avoid obvious passing situations. Easier said than done.

FEARLESS PREDICTION:
I suspect a battle for field position with both offenses playing very conservatively as to avoid the big mistake. The team the makes the least amount of mistakes in terms of turnovers, big plays and penalties will likely be victorious. That’s hardly a profound statement but I can’t see either team playing well from behind.

Dolphins 17-13

Burner’s Fearless Round-up Vol. 4

By Ronn Burner • on October 5, 2009

I was feeling purty good about this week too. Ouch. Just can’t seem to get over that .500 hump. There’s always next week.

NY Giants (3-0) @ Kansas City (0-3) +9.5
The Chiefs might be the worst team in the league while the Giants might be the best. This is the 2nd straight road game for the banged up Giants, which is really a tough task but I just tend to think they are so much better that it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs challenging here.
Giants 23-13

GIANTS 27-16

Same ole same ole Giants. Same ole same old Chiefs. Game was nowhere near as close as the score.

Baltimore (3-0) @ New England (2-1) -1.5
The numbers make this game look like an obvious Ravens win but there’s just something terrifying betting against a Tom Brady, Bill Belichek wounded animal. Some things just don’t make sense so despite all the obvious Ravens advantages I reluctantly love the Patriots here. Oxymoron, maybe, Tom Brady, yes.
Patriots 34-30

PATRIOTS 27-21

Tom Brady and the Patriots are getting closer and closer to clicking offensively, which strikes fear into the rest of the league. The Ravens are good and something tells me these two will meet again in January.

*Cincinnati (2-1) @ Cleveland (0-3) +5.5
The Bengals are for real, the Brown are a joke with one of the worst offenses in recent memory. Not only do I think Cinci wins but I will be shocked if it’s even close, in fact, it’s my favorite bet of the week, which means Cleveland will probably clobber them.
Bengals 30-13

BENGALS 23-20

Derek Anderson kept this game a lot closer than expected but it wasn’t enough as the Bengals move to 3-1 and atop the AFC Central. Cinci needs to find their offensive groove if they hope to stay there though.

Seattle (1-2) @ Indianapolis (3-0) -8.5
The Colts offense is remarkable as long as #11 is under center and they always seem to play that much better on their home turf while the Seahawks are notoriously bad on the road and will be playing again without their leader Matt Hasselback. Tough combination.
Colts 31-20

COLTS 34-17

Peyton Manning and the Colts are 4-0 yet again and getting better every week. Seattle never had a chance.

Detroit (1-2) @ Chicago (2-1) -10.5
The Lions are hot right now and will go to Soldier Field feeling great about themselves. Jay Cutler has been playing better than you think and should be able to outscore the Lions with the banged up Bears defense playing better than expected without Brian Urlacher.
Bears 23-13

BEARS 48-24

The Lions hung in for the better part of 3 quarters at 21-21 before the Bears and Jay Cutler exploded to a whopping 48-24 route. The Lions are getting better and the Bears are starting to gel offensively.

*Tampa Bay (0-3) @ Washington (1-2) -6.5
The Bucs are horrible offensively and will be starting Josh Johnson at QB, um, who? Not to mention the fact they’re asking him to go on the road to play a team that just got beat by the Detroit Lions ending that 19 game losing streak. No thank you.
Redskins 27-13

REDSKINS 16-13

I think it’s safe now to throw the Redskins into the same category as the Bucs, Lions, Raiders, Rams and Browns, which is not the category you want to be in. Just a putrid game and the fact the Redskins went to the wire with the Bucs at home a week after getting beat by Detroit tells you how bad the Redskins really are.

Oakland (1-2) @ Houston (1-2) -9.5
I hate everything about this pick. The Raiders are a dumpster fire with Jamarcus Russell playing horribly but they do have a pretty good offensive line with really good backs when they hold onto the ball and a decent defense. I could see Houston winning 54-6 but I’m picking the Raiders to cover because I’m stupid.
Texans 26-17

TEXANS 29-6

Holy smokes are the Raider horrible. Wow. Even when you know this fact it is still mind boggling how bad they are. Houston completely stuffed the Raiders running game after letting each of their previous 3 opponents run right through them.

Tennessee (0-3) @ Jacksonville (1-2) +2.5
It’s hard to imagine the Titans going 0-4 but they are clearly not the Titans we have grown accustomed to despite losing very hard fought and close games. Shockingly it’s the Titan defense that has been the letdown. They will bounce back and even though the Jags are coming off a win they have not played well.
Titans 27-20

TITANS 37-17

It appears the 0-4 Titans have quit on Head Coach Jeff Fisher after allowing the struggling Jags to blow them off the field. Hard to believe but hard to argue.

Buffalo (1-2) @ Miami (0-3) +2.5
The Chad Henne era begins. Miami has played well against the run and been gouged through the air while the Bills have struggled in their passing game with Trent Edwards but their ground game has been great. Something has to give and I’m a Dolphins fan so there!
Dolphins 27-16

DOLPHINS 38-10

The Phins break into the win column in impressive fashion by dominating the Bills on both sides of the ball. Believe it or not the Dolphins boast the #3 ranked rushing offense and are also ranked #3 against the run. Two numbers that usually results in lots of wins. Hmmm…

NY Jets (3-0) @ New Orleans (3-0) -6.5
A battle of two undefeated teams. Mark Sanchez and the nyj have to be one of the biggest surprises of the season thus far and no rookie QB has ever even started 3-0 let alone 4-0 so the odds are already in the Saints favor. Aside from that Drew Brees has this team rolling and Pierre Thomas hase brought to life their running game making them even more frightening.
Saints 27-17

SAINTS 24-10

Mark Sanchez, Earth. Earth, Mark Sanchez. Three picks by the rookie was more than enough for Drew Brees and the Saints offense against the blitz happy nyj defensive scheme.

*St. Louis (0-3) @ San Francisco (2-1) -9.5
The Rams are a disaster offensively and must play without Marc Bulger and Laurent Robinson against the 49ers defense that held Adrian Peterson to 80 yards rushing. The Niners will be without Frank Gore but Glen Coffee has proven to be more than capable.
49ers 28-10

49ers 35-0

49ers defense outscored both their own offense and the entire Rams team after scoring 3 touchdowns. The Rams are a lock for the 1st pick in next April’s draft while the 49ers are quietly one of the best teams in the NFL over the past 11 games dating to last year with an impressive 8-3 record.

Dallas (2-1) @ Denver (3-0) +3.5
The Broncos have looked great defensively and they are 3-0 but I firmly believe it’s all smoke and mirrors while the Cowboys have played so inconsistently offensively but are very close to being excellent. Marion Barber and Felix Jones might both be out but even then I can’t see this Broncos team sitting at 4-0.
Cowboys 24-20

COWBOYS 17-10

I still think the Broncos are the worst 4-0 team in the history of the NFL after the Cowboys handed them this game to go along with their fluky week 1 win over Cinci. That said the Broncos are playing excellent on defense and Kyle Orton is making the Jay Cutler debacle seem like a blessing. As for the Cowboys, Tony Romo continues to struggle.

San Diego (2-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-2) -6.5
Pittsburgh is a tough place to play and when the west coast goes east it usually spells doom but I think the Chargers have enough offensively to keep it close, especially with the Steelers missing their defensive leader Troy Polamalu.
Steelers 23-17

STEELERS 38-28

The Steelers are tough at home but they dismantled the enigmatic Chargers and if it wasn’t for a late surge by Phillip Rivers and Co. this could have easily been a 20+ point blow out. That’s saying something considering the Chargers think they are Super Bowl worthy. Looks like the defending Champs aren’t willing to relinquish their crown just yet.

Monday, October 05
Green Bay (2-1) @ Minnesota (3-0) -3.5
And so it begins… the Brett Favre vs. Green Bay Packers era. Favre tends to play out of body in these type of games and I have a hunch the Vikings at home will be so physical that AP dominates late in the game.
Vikings 24-17

This week ATS: 6-7

Season to Date ATS: 29-32

This week Best Bets: 1-2

Season to Date Best Bets: 3-9

Dolphins Thrash Bills 38-10

By Ronn Burner • on October 5, 2009

The Miami Dolphins opened division play with a very decisive 38-10 statement win over the Buffalo Bills in an odd 4:PM EST matchup. The Dolphins move to 1-3 on the season but an important 1-0 in the AFC East while the Bills dropped to 0-2 in the division and tied even with Miami at 1-3 on the season.

Chad Henne went 14-22 for 115 yards, no interceptions and a touchdown pass to Ohio State rookie wide receiver, Brian Hartline. Henne to Hartline may sound weird now but it’s a connection we would love to ring in our ears just as commonly as Marino to Clayton or Marino to Duper did. Henne wasn’t spectacular in his first ever NFL start but he did play well and most importantly he didn’t make mistakes. There were obvious things he’ll need to improve on such as not taking 6 sacks and not fumbling when he does, he fumbled twice but Miami recovered them both. It’s a good day to be a Dolphins fan knowing that as each day passes Henne is getting better and it’s an excellent start to what hopes to be a long career as the Miami Dolphins franchise quarterback.

Henne was helped out tremendously by the running game which continues to punish opposing teams by amassing 250 yards at a 5.6 yards per attempt led by Ronnie Brown with 115 yards and Ricky Williams added 85 of his own. Miami found success on the ground against a Bills front that stacked 8 in the box making these already gaudy number all the more impressive. The Dolphins find themselves ranked as the #3 rush offense in the league and are making a strong case for being the best running team in football. The same cannot be said for the passing game unfortunately as our receivers have still yet to make any sort of an impact play and Ted Ginn has become a waste of a roster spot adding his stellar 1 catch 4 yard performance to a career filled with eye popping statistical games like this. Hartline, Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo are clearly the go-to guys in the offense snatching 9 passes for 76 yards combined and it’s starting to get concerning that Anthony Fasano is a non issue with his 1 reception for 7 yards. Moving forward Miami will have to get more production from the tight ends as well as find a way to make a big play downfield. It’s a broken record at this point.

Defensively the Dolphins were a force to be reckoned with and it’s exciting to see that the rookies were a huge reason for the dominant overall effort. Rookie corner Vontae Davis had his first career interception and touchdown on the same play. Canadian Football League two-time Defensive player of the Year, Cameron Wake, showed why he was so highly sought after by delivering a monster game that included 3 sacks, 2 hurries and a forced fumble to go with his 6 tackles. As a unit the Dolphins forced 3 interceptions and had 6 sacks terrorizing Trent Edwards all afternoon and spoiled Marshawn Lynch’s return from suspension for Substance Abuse with 8 carries for 4 yards. That is impressive in and of itself not to mention that the entire Bills were only able to gain 46 total yards on the ground on 17 carries, an average of a paltry 2.7 yards per carry.

It’s only one win and the Dolphins have a long way to go to get back into the playoff picture but winning can do wonderful things to a teams confidence and when good things start to happen it becomes contagious and is not out of the realm of possibilities to turn into a winning streak and with our upcoming schedule, we’re going to need it.

Chad Henne get First NFL Start at Home Against Buffalo

By Ronn Burner • on October 2, 2009

(1-2) Buffalo Bills at (0-3) Miami Dolphins +2.5

The all important division play begins for Miami who is in desperate need of a win, while Buffalo really hasn’t seemed to recover from the heart breaking loss in the opener to the Patriots. As it stands now both teams are chasing the nyj and New England Patriots within the division making this somewhat stale appearing game rather critical for one another. To be honest, not one person outside of those that are fans of these teams care one bit about this dud and I don’t blame them.

WHEN MIAMI HAS THE BALL:
There’s a new sheriff in town and his name is Chad Henne. I’d be lying if I told you I didn’t think Miami would be very conservative but that said I also expect a few shots deep to Ted Ginn serving two extremely important points 1.) the opportunity for a big play that Miami and especially Ginn so desperately needs and 2.) to open up the middle of the field to hopefully free up space in the running game and for underneath routes to Davone Bess, Brian Hartline, Greg Camarillo and Anthony Fasano as well as swings, dumps and screens to Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Miami should be able to run the ball on Buffalo as it is but obviously they must avoid penalties and turnovers to keep Henne in a favorable situation and try to avoid the must throw downs in 3rd and long.

WHEN BUFFALO HAS THE BALL:
Marshawn Lynch is back from a 3 game suspension for performance enhancing drugs and will split carries with the impressive Fred Jackson. Miami has played the run very well thus far but the passing lanes have been wide open. Tight Ends have shredded Miami so far this year and Buffalo will be looking to attack the Safeties, Gibril Wilson in particular who has struggled big time the first 3 weeks. Bills WR Terrell Owens is coming off his first game without a catch in 185 games and you can be sure that Buffalo will be throwing the rock his way early and often if for no other reason than to avoid a huge blow up. Trent Edwards has been less than expected but he does have weapons with T.O. and Lee Evans and more than capable backs at his disposal so he is still dangerous enough to outscore the Phins erratic offense.

KEY MATCH UP:
Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell Vs. Anybody!
Heading into the season the Safeties were thought to be one of our units of least concern, which has turned out to be our most glaring weakness thus far. Both Wilson and Bell have been caught out of position and exploited by opposing TE’s in paticular as well as a tendency to not provide over the top help to our corners allowing huge plays to Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon and every TE they’ve faced yet. And maybe more troubling than that is the number of missed tackles each has accumulated, Wilson specifically. Another poor performance and I would not be shocked in the least to see Wilson benched. It’s been that bad.

FEARLESS PREDICTION:
Make no mistake about it, 0-3 or not this game matters to the Dolphins in a big way. It’s the first of 6 must-win division games and essentially a new beginning figuratively and literally with Chad Henne and the clean slate of being 0-0 within the division. Miami has shown glimpses of excellent play offensively and based on the self induced streak of bad luck it only takes a big positive to get them back to believing and the opportunity to go 1-0 in the division will have them firing on all cylinders in the intensity department anyway. One win will go a long way towards the rest of the season and the psyche of Henne.

Dolphins 27-16

The Legend, er, Hype of Chad Henne

By Ronn Burner • on October 1, 2009

The Legend hype of Chad Henne and that big arm of his. Chad Henne has a big arm. Yes, we heard. It is mind boggling to me that every publication covering this story can’t stop talking about that “big arm” of Chad Henne’s, many of which are even including it in the headline. Palm Beach Post Staff Writer, Edgar Thompson, wrote the column “Chad Henne faces big challenges, but he’ll give the Miami Dolphins a big arm” and “Chad Henne has strong arm but shouldn’t be given free rein” by Ethan J. Skolnick of the Sun Sentinel Times. This just in: So did Ryan Leaf. So did Jeff George. I think we all know how those stories ended. Chad Henne has a big arm holds about as much water as Ted Ginn sure is fast. See where I’m going with this? Not that either of those two talented writers that I frequently read are making any grandiose claims but the point being that since the days of Dan Marino Dolfans have been praying to the football gods for the next great quarterback to lead us to the promised land. The bigger our inflated expectations become, the bigger the unfair burden on Henne becomes.

Chad Pennington is gone for the season with a separated shoulder to his already twice surgically repaired throwing shoulder and not only is his future with the Dolphins in jeopardy but his entire career hangs in the balance. As unfortunate as this news is, life in the NFL must go on. Now his protégé is thrown into the spotlight trying to salvage the season after a tough 0-3 start. Make no mistake about it, Miami has high hopes for Henne. The kingdom was going to be his soon enough, however, soon enough wasn’t supposed to be until late this year when Miami had played themselves out of the playoff picture or next season after having 2 solid years of absorbing every detail possible from Pennington. His time is here, however premature it may or may not be. With that, we as fans have to be prepared for the inevitable growing pains that are certain to come and not expect too much from him beyond what you would expect from any young quarterback. He will make mistakes, he will throw interceptions, he will need to learn to read and react to blitzes, stunts, coverages and every other tricky nuance that defensive coordinators are licking their chops to throw at him, he will hold the ball too long, he will get rid of it too early, he will have happy feet, he will telegraph passes and he will probably even line up under guard at some point but as long as he learns from each mistake and continues to grow from one day to the next, as long as he displays poise and gets back up after taking a sack and brushes himself off unphased and walks back into the huddle calling the next play confidently and proving to his teammates that he has fire in his eyes to lead them and do everything in his power to be the best quarterback in this league he can be then that’s all we can ask for. Everything else that we “hope” he becomes will come in due time but these stages are the most crucial of his young career and if we believe in hi and support him he very well meet our lofty expectations. It is important that we not use that exciting year in 1983 when Marino was unveiled as the barometer in which to judge Henne. As far as I’m concerned that’s an unfair comparison for any quarterback to ever walk the planet. There is only one Dan Marino.

Henne will be making his first NFL start Sunday at home versus the Buffalo Bills. Hey! Didn’t Dan Marino make his first NFL start at home versus the Buffalo Bills? Just saying. Then again, Ted Ginn sure is fast.

Dolphins lose more than game in SD

By Ronn Burner • on September 30, 2009

Miami Dolphins 13

San Diego Chargers 23

What a difference a year makes. Last season the Dolphins were coming off of a 1-15 season with minimal expectations yet played a physical, mistake-free and very efficient brand of football resulting in an 11-5 Division Championship season matching the greatest single season turnaround in NFL history. Coming into this year, despite boasting the leagues toughest schedule, expectations were high but what we’ve seen thus far is vastly different than that of last year and that was blatantly obvious against the San Diego Chargers. Miami just can’t seem to stop shooting themselves in the foot. Just when they look like they are here to stay and able to compete with anyone as demonstrated with a 17 play, 94 yard drive eating nine and a half minutes off the clock they do something to completely implode like Ronnie Brown fumbling on that 17th play before there was even contact at the 1 yard line through the back of the end zone for a touchback. They never recovered; in fact, it only got worse from there.

There are glaring holes in this Dolphins squad that keeps being highlighted as each week passes. Most notably is the play of our safeties, Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell, who haven’t proven they can cover their mouths when they sneeze let alone All Pro’s like Tony Gonzales, Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates who have completely gouged the Phins secondary. Phillip Rivers threw for over 300 yards and Vincent Jackson had 120 yards receiving. The Dolphins run defense has been excellent actually and they proved that yet again by holding the dangerous Darren Sproles to only 41 yards on 18 carries but it’s a moot point when the secondary has been falling asleep allowing the Chargers to have 7 passing plays over 25 yards.

Offensively, Miami has proven that they cannot play without the lead and even when they do move the ball and make something positive happen they do something stupid to kill the drive like a penalty or turnover, something they did not do last season. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams continue to punish defenders with their running style and they produced great numbers, albeit many came from the Wildcat, accumulating 130 yards on 26 carries. Miami would take that every week and feel good about their chances of winning the game but that has not been the case. In fact, Miami has done very well in run defense, run offense, time of possession, first downs and passing efficiency which are normally good indicators of success yet the Phins find themselves 0-3 because they have struggled wit pass defense, red zone offense, turnovers and 3rd down efficiency on both sides of the ball, which are clearly good indicators that you won’t be successful. Miami’s passing game has struggled with Davone Bess being the only receiver worth mentioning with his solid play in the middle ala Wes Welker in New England. Ted Ginn continues to struggle this time going without a catch entirely and dropping two consecutive low passes when Miami was attempting to mount a rally. Tight End Anthony Fasano has been a non-factor for some unknown reason this year after being one of the focal points last year. Like I said, what a difference a year makes.

To add insult to injury, on the first possession of the second half Chad Pennington was hit legally by LB Kevin Burnett after attempting a 3rd down pass and fell to the ground dislocating his already twice repaired throwing shoulder. It was later determined that the injury is season ending and truly unfortunate for CP10 as his value to the Dolphins cannot be quantified in numbers. Heir apparent Chad Henne stepped in and immediately showed why he didn’t win the job outright by displaying happy feet, showing nervous jitters and telegraphing his throws, one of which was picked and returned for 6 by CB Eric Weddle. In defense of Henne, the entire Dolphins team seemed to lose its steam and confidence after Pennington left with the injury.

While the Dolphins look to have lost another season at 0-3 the San Diego Chargers have their sights set on a deep playoff run. Hopefully next year with a polished Chad Henne at the helm we will be able to make that claim. Here we are after 3 weeks and still in September and thoughts about “next” year are already creeping in. Not good.

Burner’s Fearless Roundup – Vol. 3

By Ronn Burner • on September 28, 2009

(*) Denotes Best Bets

Tennessee (0-2) @ nyj (2-0) -2.5
The Titans are in desperate need of a win and they are way too good of a team to start 0-3 while the Jets are bound to come back to earth sooner or later and what better time than following a huge emotional win over division foe New England.
*Titans 20-16

nyj 24-17

Holy crap Mark Sanchez. God I hate that he plays for “them”. “They” just happen to look like they are for real. That defense is just fun to watch which is painful to say. So much for desperation as the Titans fall again knowing full well that no team has ever made it to the Super Bowl starting 0-3 while only 3 teams have ever even made it to the postseason.

Jacksonville (0-2) @ Houston (1-1) -3.5
Houston found their groove offensively and the Jags have struggled in all areas especially defensively where the Cardinals lit them up last week. Matt Schaub will do the same this week.
*Texans 27-17

JAGUARS 31-24

Maurice Jones-Drew ran wild scoring 3 touchdowns including a 61 yarder giving the difficult to guage Jags their much needed 1st victory. Equally confusing Houston has looked great at times offensively while their defense just can’t seem to stop anyone. Costly turnovers held the Texans to 24 points including a late goalline fumble costing them a chance for OT.

NY Giants (2-0) @ Tampa Bay (0-2) +6.5
It’s the second consecutive road game on the heels of a short week duel with division rival Dallas. That’s tough and the Bucs will try to take advantage of that but in the end the Giants eek out the win.
Giants 24-20

GIANTS 24-0

The Giants took care of business by completely dominating the Bucs who didn’t obtain their first 1st down until late in the 3rd quarter. With Detroit finally winning Tampa Bay looks to be the front runner of earning the dubious distinction of being the leagues worst team although Oakland, St. Louis, Clevaland and Kansas City might have something to say about that.

Cleveland (0-2) @ Baltimore (2-0) -13.5
Baltimore looks amazing on both sides of the ball and I have no reason whatsoever for taking Cleveland to cover considering the Browns offense is dreadful but that many points just makes me think a back door touchdown will cover.
Ravens 27-17

RAVENS 34-3

Granted, Cleveland is terrible in all phases of the game but it’s really difficult to ignore the dominating fashion that the Ravens are playing on both sides of the ball. The real test will come in New England next week but you can bank on seeing Baltimore in the playoffs and likely with at least one home game and a BYE.

Washington (1-1) @ Detroit (0-2) +6.5
Could this be the week the Lions get out of the doldrums? Eventually they will win and they are clearly a much better team than last year and with the struggles of the Redskins offense this is a golden opportunity to get that elusive W.
Lions 23-20

LIONS 19-14

I am a genius! Ok, I admit it was hardly an earth shattering prediction but still. Mathew Stafford really looks like he has all the tools to be very successful and from top to bottom the Lions really are much improved and clearly heading in the right direction. As for the Redskins, they are clearly not.

Kansas City (0-2) @ Philadelphia (1-1) -10.5
If it were any other team than the Chiefs than I would call you crazy if you said that Kevin Kolb and a banged up Michael Westbrook and DeSean Jackson would blow a team out. I think they do. The Chiefs are not very good.
Eagles 24-13

EAGLES 34-14

Even without Michael Westbrook and Donovan McNabb the Eagles easily dismantled the lowly Chiefs. While the Eagles look poised to make yet another NFC Championship push the Chiefs look to be competing with Tampa Bay, Oakland, Cleveland and St. Louis for the #1 selection in next April’s NFL Draft.

Atlanta (2-0) @ New England (1-1) -4.5
I’m not convinced the Patriots are just average. I think once they iron out the kinks they will be very dangerous and put up a ton of points. The Falcons look great but Matt Ryan will have to face the crafty Bill Belichek defensive scheme.
Patriots 27-21

PATRIOTS 26-10

Anyone else get the feeling that the Patriots are still trying working things out? If so, look out because Atlanta is a very good team that Tom Brady and New England hammered while it still felt like the Patriots were “off” of their game. New England and Baltimore next week is must see tv!

Green Bay (1-1) @ St. Louis (0-2) +6.5
St. Louis could find some success on the ground but even then they are so outmatched that they will struggle to find points while the Packers should be able to score plenty with an angry Aaron Rodgers hoping to redeem last weeks embarrassing loss at Lambeau to the Bengals.
*Packers 31-10

PACKERS 36-17

Poor Steven Jackson. Now the Rams may have to play without quarterback Marc Bulger and #1 receiver Laurent Robinson who both went down with injuries. Aside from SJAX the Rams are not good on offense yet they somehow managed to score 17 points on the Packers defense. I would be a little concerned in Green Bay who was coiming off a home loss to the Bengals last week.

San Francisco (2-0) @ Minnesota (2-0) -6.5
The Vikings rarely blow people out and with each team looking to pound the ball it’s really anybody’s game that could be decided by an untimely turnover. Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore all day long.
Vikings 20-17

So much for the AP Frank Gore mathcup as Gore left and did not return after one carry injured his ankle. AP was held under 90 yards and had the game won until good ole #4 stole the limelight yet again with a last second laser to the back of the end zone to the normally inactive Greg Lewis who was only even in the game because Percy Harvin was so exhausted after running 7 consecutive go patterns. Welcome to the NFL kid. The 49ers got Favred. Plain and simple.

Chicago (1-1) @ Seattle (1-1) +1.5
Both teams are banged up but the Bears still have their offense in tact while the Seahawks will be without quarterback Matt Hasselback meaning Seneca Wallace gets the start. No way I can pick Seneca Wallace to beat the Bears.
Bears 27-13

Boy was Jim Mora pissed off that Olindo Mare missed two field goals. Assume Mare is on unemployment very soon. Truth is the Seahawks defense is really to blame not being able to stop Jay Cutler and the Bears offense when they needed to late. Penalties and missed kicks certainly didn’t help matters though.

New Orleans (2-0) @ Buffalo (1-1) +5.5
This one has all the makings of an old fashioned shootout. Drew Brees couldn’t be any hotter while Trent Edwards is holding his own and instilling confidence in the entire Bills organization. At some point the Saints have to play just average so I’m guessing it’s here.
Saints 31-27

SAINTS 27-7

T.O. was held without a reception for the first time in 12 years so it’s safe to assume we can expect a blowup in the very near future. This one was close well into the 3rd before the Saints offense found their groove and started moving the ball — on the ground! If that continues then the Saints become downright scary.

Pittsburgh (1-1) @ Cincinnati (1-1) +4.5
The Bengals broke into the win column in a big way by winning at Lambeau and this one against division and Super Bowl champ Pittsburgh would go a long way in proving to the rest of the league that the Bengals mean business. That’s enough to keep it close anyway.
Steelers 21-20

BENGALS 23-20

Don’t look now but the Cincinnati Bengals are for real and one fluky Broncos touchdown from a 3-0 start. Carson Palmer looked like the All Pro that he is on an impressive game winning drive in the closing seconds against the mighty Steelers defense albeit without star safety Troy Polamalu. The Steelers will be fine despite their 1-2 start and the Bengals are looking strong as playoff contenders.

Miami (0-2) @ San Diego (1-1) -6.5 The Dolphins are in desperate need of a win and a desperate team is a dangerous team. Miami played great last week against the Colts but let the win slip away so they will look to do many of the same things to try and keep Philip Rivers and the high-powered Charger offense sidelined.

Dolphins 31-23

CHARGERS 23-13

Great googly moogly.

Denver (2-0) @ Oakland (1-1) -0.5
Both these teams appear better than expected actually making this game remotely interesting. The Broncos look great and defense and the Raiders look horrible on offense so it stands to reason Denver would be the clear favorite yet Oakland is favored at home. Hmmm..
Raiders 24-21

BRONCOS 23-3

The Broncos are surprisingly 3-0 and they have looked good defensively and running the ball thus far but I wouldn’t get too carried away as they beat up on Cleveland and Oakland and they had nothing offensively until that Brandon Stokely miracle last second touchdown took out the Bengals in week 1. Oakland is heading for yet again another top 5 draft pick for the umteenth straight year.

Indianapolis (2-0) @ Arizona (1-1) -1.5
It doesn’t take a genius prognosticator to tell you that the ball will be thrown a lot in this one. Kurt Warner found his groove last week and Peyton Manning never loses his. This one might be going down to which team has the ball last but I actually think Arizona rolls.
Cardinals 27-17

COLTS 31-10

Peyton Manning could lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to an 8-8 record and I’m beggining to think he could drive and score with 10 girl scouts. What else can you say other than the Colts are the Colts and will be a tough win for anyone. The Cardinals are wildly inconsistent at best. The fact that this offense has played so poorly in 2 out of 3 games is mind boggling and must have Cardinals fans worrying.

Monday, September 28
Carolina (0-2) @ Dallas (1-1) -9.5
The Panthers are looking to get in the win column by running DeAngelo Williams and James Stewart as much as possible which won’t be easy as Dallas is home for the second consecutive week and coming off a tough loss to the Giants. Tony Romo will look to silence the naysayers.
Cowboys 31-23

COWBOYS 21-7

The Cowboys potentially potent offense has yet to click on all cylinders which was evident after Carolina held them at the 1 yard line twice forcing field goals. It now looks like the Cowboys may be without both Marion Barber and the electrifying Felix Jones who tweaked an ankle Monday night. The Panthers start out 0-3 after winning the division last season and can’t be real happy with how they’ve started this year.

This Week ATS: 7-9

Season to Date ATS: 23-25

Last Week Best Bets: 1-2

Season to Date Best Bets: 2-7