(5-0) New Orleans Saints vs. (2-3) Miami Dolphins +6.5 4:15 EST
WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL:
New Orleans is averaging an NFL-best 38.4 points per game and are coming off a 48-27 thrashing of the New York Giants #1 rated defense and Drew Brees and company even put up 34 points and 315 yards by halftime. Brees has led the Saints on opening drive touchdowns in every game so far this season and they have yet to trail for even one second all year winning each game by at least 14 points. Get the point? The Saints are an offensive juggernaut and will look to attack the Dolphins improving but still not good enough young secondary. Brees runs an extremely potent offense far more efficiently than you would think completing 69.2% of his passes with 13 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. He has weapons all over the field at his disposal including his favorite target WR Marques Colston on the receiving end of 394 yards on 25 receptions and 4 scores. As if you weren’t convinced of their firepower already than consider that Colston is 3rd on the team averaging a whopping 15.8 yards per reception, which is huge for a #1 wide receiver. WR Devery Henderson (14-241-1) is averaging 16.8 and WR Robert Meachem (6-151-2) is a big play machine with his staggering 25.2 yards per. This poses an obvious problem for a Dolphins secondary that has been less than stellar giving up numerous big plays and allowing 225 yards a game. In fairness, the Dolphins safeties, Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson, have played much better over the past two weeks and rookie corners Sean Smith and Vontae Davis have played solid and consistent football and more importantly have not made mistakes that usually plague young corners. Miami is very impressed with them on one side as they still rotate every two possessions while the always-reliable Will Allen has been excellent in both pass defense and tackling. The Saints ground game is often over looked for obvious reasons but they are averaging 157.8 yards per game on the ground lead by the talented duo of Pierre Thomas (48-284-3) and Mike Bell (60-263-2) who are averaging 5.9 and 4.4 yards per carry respectively. Oh by the way, I haven’t even mentioned Reggie Bush to tell you a little something about their overflow of weapons. The Dolphins front seven are playing inspired football and only allowing 76.4 yards a game on the ground while still applying pressure on the quarterback but this will be a different challenge than any they have faced this year and that includes Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. The Dolphins will need to do three things defensively to be successful 1.) Disrupt Dree Brees’ rhythm by disguising coverages and applying pressure, if he has time he will shred the Dolphins. 2.) Create turnovers and 3.) Much like they did with Peyton Manning they must keep Brees on the sidelines.
WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL:
Play Dolphins football. It’s really that simple. When the Dolphins do what they are best at they are an extremely difficult team to defend. The Wildcat and the Dolphins ground game is one of the best in the league averaging 177.0 yards a game and while the Saints are only allowing 83.4 yards per contest those numbers a bit deceiving since New Orleans is usually playing with a huge lead. Ronnie Brown (93-443-6) and Ricky Williams (61-316-2) are both playing at an exceptional level and punishing defenders with their bruising style. The Dolphins o-line has improved drastically since weeks one and two and the emergence of Chad Henne at quarterback and his ability to stretch the field and incorporating otherwise lackluster play from WR Ted Ginn and TE Anthony Fasano has made this offensive unit a force to reckon with. The one caveat being that it’s very important for the Dolphins to get on the board first. Their style of offense and those monster 12+ play pounding clock munching drives are meant to play with the lead, if they fall behind early than they are very susceptible to letting the game get out of hand early. Obviously, they will need to avoid that by not only marching and keeping the Saints offense sidelined but also protecting the football and wearing their defense down in the process.
KEY MATCHUP:
Dolphins Front 4 vs. Drew Brees
It’s hard to imagine the Dolphins slowing down the Saints high-powered offense without disrupting Brees and his timing with his receivers without constant pressure on him. The bigger the push up front by Jason Ferguson, Kendall Langford and Randy Starks the more things can go right for Miami such as batted balls, quicker decisions by Brees resulting in check downs, interceptions or incomplete passes not to mention the opportunity for Jason Taylor, Phillip Merling and Joey Porter to add to their sack totals. Quite simply, the more time Brees has to get comfortable in the pocket the more points the Saints will score.
FEARLESS PREDICTION:
This game is really a battle of game plans and styles if you ask me. Finesse versus power. The Saints will come out swinging looking for the homerun from the start. The Dolphins will come out and try to impose their will with a physical time consuming drive. Both are very good at what they do and whichever team finds the most success at executing their game plan will most likely be victorious. I believe the Saints have obstacles they have yet to face such as the heat and grass in Miami, the physicality of the home team, the length of time between offensive series and the Dolphins are hungry and aggressive and in a more desperate situation as they simply need this game more to keep up with the Patriots.
Saints 24
Dolphins 28
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