Dolphins Need Sweep of Jets to Keep Pace in AFC East

By Ronn Burner • on October 28, 2009

(2-4) Miami Dolphins Vs. (4-3) New York Jets (-3.5)

1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 01, 2009
Giants Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

The 2-4 Miami Dolphins travel to New York to take on the 4-3 Jets for their second meeting of the year in what has amounted to a must win game for Miami. These two faced off in a Monday Night Football shootout 3 weeks ago resulting in a late Dolphins 31-27 victory on a 2 yard Ronnie Brown touchdown run out of the Wildcat in the closing minutes. Since then Miami enjoyed their bye week before suffering yet another, of what has now become an all too familiar heart-breaking loss to the New Orleans Saints. Miami had both Indianapolis and San Diego on the ropes with a punishing running game and ball control offense only to allow victory to slip through their fingers by way of Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers’ big play after big play. Meanwhile, the Jets suffered a surprising home loss to the Buffalo Bills before bouncing back last week in Oakland with a 38-0 throttling of the Raiders. The Raiders are good for the old self-esteem. With the Jets feeling good about themselves and clearly seeking revenge on a Dolphins team that finds themselves back on their heels and in desperate need of a win to avoid falling 3 games behind both the Jets and new England Patriots.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL:
The Jets defense was extremely unhappy after allowing Chad Henne, in only his second NFL start, complete 20 of 26 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns, one of which was a pivotal 53 yard touchdown strike passed three Jets defenders to Dolphins public enemy #1, Ted Ginn. Jets linebacker Calvin Pace made his sentiments clear after that game by saying of Henne, “We made him look like Dan Marino. They did what they wanted to do, and they did it at will.” Rest assured, the Jets did their homework in the film room will make their adjustments on the field. Tony Sparano is fully aware of this and though the base offense will likely remain the same there will have to be new things thrown at this jets defense to avoid them crowding the box to stop the Wildcat and pinning back their ears and getting after Henne. That said, they cannot abandon what they do best, moving the ball and chewing clock. The Dolphins do still lead the NFL in third-down efficiency (53.8 percent) and are second behind New England in time of possession (34:04 to the Patriots’ 34:22) behind their #2 ranked rushing offense in the league averaging 170.3 yards per game. The Jets will also be forced to stop the Dolphins physical ground game tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams without their best defensive lineman in the middle, run stopper Kris Jenkins is lost for the year with an ACL tear. This doesn’t bode well for Nre York considering they ran for over 150 yards against them with their best run stopper. Miami’s offensive line played great and has since then after a rough start to the year. They handled the Jets aggressive blitz package exceptionally well in their first meeting and they can expect to see the blitz just as frequently with some new wrinkles in hopes to confuse the Dolphins in pass protection situations. It’s a broken record at this point but it’s certainly worth repeating until someone steps up in the receiving corps and assumes the role of being the go-to guy. Tight end Anthony Fasano has been a ghost while Ted Ginn wishes he were one. Davone Bess and Brian Hartline deservedly will be the starters this week after Ginn has been relegated to the practice squad and kick return duties.

WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL:
It’s unfortunate for the Jets that all-purpose back Leon Washington is lost for the year with a compound fracture to his. He will be sorely missed because what he brings to the Jets offense and return game cannot be replaced. Behind both Washington and Thomas Jones the Jets are averaging 184.9 yards per game on the ground to lead the NFL and in their first meeting Washington appeared close to breaking a long touchdown nearly every time he touched the ball. Jets wide receiver was a one man wrecking crew against Miami and almost single handedly won the game for them after being traded to them just days before. Struggling rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez and Edwards now have almost a month of working together and they will look to attack the suddenly depleted Dolphins after losing starting corner Will Allen for the year with an ACL injury. Rookie Vontae Davis will take his sport while fellow rookie Sean Smith will man the other side. Both are talented and have played well thus far in a platoon role but now the stage is theirs and the Jets will look to put them on an island as much as possible. It’s crucial they play well and don’t rely too much on safety help from the struggling safeties Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson. Tight end Dustin Keller poses a huge threat as well considering the Dolphins have been gashed by opposing tight ends all year long. In fact, anyone in the middle of the field has found success against us. It’s a mystery to me how receivers are able to continually run freely down the middle of the field against the Fins secondary.

KEY MATCHUP:
Vontae Davis and Sean Smith Vs. Braylon Edwards
In their first meeting Edwards hauled in 5 passes for 64 yards and a touchdown and nearly scored another before replay ruled him down at the 6” yard line after the Dolphins allowed him to streak down the sideline and make a huge play on 3rd and 22. That can never happen again! Granted, Smith and Davis have 3 more games under their belt since then but they are still rookies and aside from just playing good football it’s vital they avoid the big mistake and limit mistakes altogether.

FEARLESS PREDICTION:
The Dolphins have yet to win on the road and they will play 4 of their next 5 away from LandShark Stadium with their only break coming on a November 15th when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the short trip to Miami. As much as I hate to see injuries because they affect these guys lives but you also ideally like to face and beat other teams, especially division rivals, at full strength they seem likely to pay a key role in this game. The Jets will struggle to stop the run without Jenkins. They will certainly not be as dangerous in the return game or on 3rd down without Washington and the Dolphins are forced to start a rookie at each corner after losing Allen. Who will be more successful and exploiting the chinks in their oppositions armor? I don’t feel great about this game considering the Jets have played us once and they know exactly what to expect from us, we are starting two rookie corners albeit talented rookies and we’re going on the road where we’ve struggled against a team that we’ve already beaten once. All these things stack up against Miami more than help Miami. Yet still, this is the most resilient team we’ve had in many years and frankly, I just think we’re better than the Jets and after putting 31 up on them last time I feel like at the very least we can outscore them if it comes to that.

Dolphins 24
Jets 23

Burner’s Fearless Recap Vol. 7

By Ronn Burner • on October 26, 2009

Well, so much for my alternating weeks theory! Let’s see where I went wrong…

If the pattern continues of alternating good and bad weeks than I should have a good week here… but don’t go mortgaging your home to follow these picks. Not that any of you would ever be dumb enough to do that for a 44-46 handicapper. Yikes!

Asterisk (*) denotes Best Bets.

San Diego (2-3) @ Kansas City (1-5) +4.5
Arrowhead is always a tough place to play and the Chiefs are coming off a big win in Washington while the Chargers collapsed at home in a must win to division rival Denver. The Chargers should blow them out but they won’t because they have underachieved for years now.
Chargers 27-23

CHARGERS 37-7

Welp. Chargers blew them out.

Minnesota (6-0) @ Pittsburgh (4-2) -4.5
Two certain playoff bound teams bang heads in one of the games of the week. Brett Favre has accounted for at least 2 wins by himself but the Vikings are not quite as good as advertised. Pittsburgh has a healthy Troy Polomalu now making that defense one of the best in the league.
Steelers 30-20

STEELERS 27-17

I actually wasn’t far off on this one although it took a last second pick 6 for me to cover. Both teams showed why they are and will continue to be title contenders.

*Green Bay (3-2) @ Cleveland (1-5) +6.5
The Browns are playing better with Derek Anderson at quarterback but after pitching a 26-0 shutout at home to Detroit last week it looks like the Packers may have found themselves a little bit. Green Bay should be at least a touchdown better than the Cleveland.
Packers 27-16

PACKERS 31-3

Blowout city. The Brown offense is horrible and the Packers have allowed only a field goal the past two weeks which is impressive even if it is against the armpit of the league. Oh yeah, and one of my Best Bets. Yes!

New England (4-2) @ Tamps Bay (0-6) +14.5
The Patriot embarrassed the Titans last week with mind-boggling number in a little more than a half from Tom Brady in route to a 59-0 thumping. They are not likely to take the foot off the gas against the lowly Bucs.
Patriots 34-13

PATRIOTS 35-7

Another great call by me, not like I went out on a limb or anything. The Patriots are downright scary again and as each week passes they are looking more and more like the Pats of old. Yikes!

San Francisco (3-2) @ Houston (3-3) -3.5
The 49ers went into last weeks bye after getting hammered by Atlanta and should be ready to bounce back but the Texans have been steadily improving and are a very good offense team and should be able to find success through the air.
Texans 24-20

TEXANS 24-21

Again I almost nailed this one exactly yet I still lose the game. Rats! It hurts even more after watching the Texans mount a 21-0 halftime lead.

*Indianapolis (5-0) @ St. Louis (0-6) +12.5
The Colts are possessed right now and should have little trouble scoring against the pathetic Rams even though they are coming off their best game of the year losing a heart breaker to the Jags in OT. Peyton Manning is just too much for them to handle.
Colts 35-17

COLTS 42-6

Best Bet #2! 2-0 Baby! Whoo hoo! Don’t worry… wait until we get to Best Bet #3. Yeah, anyway… Peyton doing what Peyton does. It could have been much uglier but the classy Colts made no serious attempts at scoring in the second half.

Buffalo (2-4) @ Carolina (2-3) -3.5
Carolina finally got their running game going last week with DeAngelo Williams gaining over 150 yards and Jonathan Stewart adding 117 of his own. The problem is Jake Delhomme continues to play poorly and Buffalo play great last week in upsetting the Jets on the Road.
Panthers 26-20

BILLS 20-9

Are the Bills better than we though or are the Panthers really this bad? Maybe a little bit of both but either way I was waay off on this one.

NY Jets (3-3) @ Oakland (2-4) +6.5
Two weeks ago and this game would have looked like a Jets blowout victory but after losing to Miami and at home to Buffalo they are reeling and Mark Sanchez is finally playing like a rookie. The Raiders as dysfunctional as they are have been playing sound defense and are coming off a huge upset over the Eagles.
Jets 20-17

JETS 38-0

Should have stuck with my “two weeks ago” thoughts. Raiders are such a joke and the Jets are a little Jeckle and Hyde which make them so difficult to predict.

*Chicago (3-2) @ Cincinnati (4-2) -1.5
These two teams are a roller coaster of good and bad play. Just when you think the Bengals are for real they start playing like the Bengals we’re used to seeing. The Bears are also struggling with consistency and are in a must win to keep the division title within reach.
Bears 30-28

BENGALS 45-10

Ande here we are… Best Bet #3. Whoops. I’ll still take 2-1 but I couldn’t have been further off on this one. I’m not nearly as embarassed as the Bears are or should be after allowing the Bengals to score on their first 7 possessions! And the roller coaster ride for these two teams continues.

New Orleans (5-0) @ Miami (2-3) +6.5
The Saints are an offensive juggernaut and shredded the #1 ranked defense of the Giants last week. The Dolphins are ball control offense that is very dangerous with their Wildcat formation. Points shouldn’t be a problem. Miami always seems to keeps games close even with their shaky pass defense so I’m the homer calling for the upset.
Dolphins 28-24

SAINTS 46-34

I’m too sick to my stomach to even comment on this one. When Miami executed their game plan they were up 24-3, when the Saints executed theirs they won 46-34. And oh by the way, not only do i lose the money line on this one but I also lost the cover due to a late pick 6 to add insult to injury.

Atlanta (4-1) @ Dallas (3-2) -3.5
We keep waiting for Tony Romo and this talented Cowboys roster to explode but they just haven’t. Romo is wildly inconsistent and they keep battling injuries. Until they prove it I can’t jump on the band wagon. The Falcons are clicking and look to be a force in the playoffs.
Falcons 27-24

COWBOYS 37-21

I can’t figure out these two teams to save my life. One week they look amazing, the next they worked. This week was the Cowboys turn to dominate while the Falcons decided to take the week off.

Arizona (3-2) @ NY Giants (5-1) -6.5
The Giants return home after getting worked in New Orleans and host the Cardinals coming off their bye week. I think the Cards can find some success through the air to keep this game within reach at all times despite the Giants firepower. Giants win a close one.
Giants 27-21

CARDINALS 24-17

I thought the Cardinals had a great chance to win this game but I didn’t have the guts to call it, though I still got the cover. The Cards defense really looks great ranking #1 in the NFL against the run while the Giants offense has sputtered.

Monday, October 26
Philadelphia (3-2) @ Washington (2-4) +6.5
Philadelphia is coming off an embarrassing 13-9 loss in Oakland will look to take it out on the imploding Redskins on national television. I can’t imagine the Eagles playing as poorly as they did last week and I can’t imagine the Redskins all of the sudden playing well.
Eagles 31-20

This week: 5-7

Season to Date ATS: 49-53

This week Best Bets: 2-1

Season to Date Best Bets: 8-13

In the End, Dolphins No Match for Saints

By Ronn Burner • on October 26, 2009

	1	2	3	4	T
NOR (6-0)	3	7	14	22	46
MIA (2-4)	14	10	10	0	34

October 25, 2009

Land Shark Stadium,

Miami, FL

Same old Dolphins, dominate the first half, collapse in the second half. Same old Ted Ginn, dropping numerous catchable passes and he has actually now become detrimental to the team rather than just a monumental underachiever. Same old conservative play calling with the lead. Same old secondary, allowing opposing tight ends to dominate them, letting receivers run free down the middle of the field and giving up big plays at an alarming rate. Same old untimely turnovers, with Davone Bess’ crucial fumble sealing their fate. Same old coaches making poor decisions as it relates to the clock with a terrible decision to call a time out just before the half. The Dolphins played their hearts out but it wasn’t even close to enough when the aforementioned continues to happen.

Please forgive me for this lazy article but I am simply emotionally drained after yet another devastating loss. In many ways, this season has been more difficult than the 1-15 year. Hard to believe, but as I sit here right now it holds true.

The (2-3) Miami Dolphins had the (5-0) New Orleans Saints on the ropes for 29:55 and they let them off the hook with an inexplicable time-out with 5 seconds remaining in the first half as they Saints were seemingly forced to settle for a field goal from the Dolphins 6 inch yard line. The Dolphins were up 24-3 at that point and the Saints were out of time-outs and had their extra point unit on the field as they thought they scored a touchdown on the previous play that replay reversed and put them 6 inches out. With no time-outs left the Saints were forced to take the three as they had no time to get their offensive unit back on the field in time until the Dolphins defensive unit called timeout to “Prepare for anything” as Head Coach Tony Sparano later said trying to justify the decision. With time for Sean Payton to reconsider and with Drew Brees lobbying to go for it they did and after Brees took the plunge for the score the Dolphins lead was now 24-10 and it clearly felt like the beginning of the end.

The second half seemed like what it must feel like to be gut shot and to just lay there for 30 minutes until you bleed out and die. I don’t know how else to put it other than it was clear to Saints fans, Saints coaches and the Saints players just as it was clear to the Dolphins fans, players and coaches that New Orleans was undoubtedly coming back and winning the game. Not only did they, but they blew the Dolphins out of the water in the process. If these teams played 10 times, Miami wouldn’t win one. They just wouldn’t, the Saints are really that much better in all phases of the game and despite all the hyperbole and enthusiasm surrounding the up and coming Dolphins it shows how far they still have to go to get to the elite level.

It’s so easy to go on and on about all the mistakes made by both Dolphins players and coaches and there are certainly plenty of them to dissect but other than recognizing them in the film room and making the proper adjustments and execution on the field it’s really not productive. The truth is there were some outstanding efforts and performances on the defensive side of the ball left on the field and despite what the gaudy numbers the Saints put up might indicate. They did sack Brees 5 times, they forced him to throw three interceptions and recovered a fumble from a sack by good old number 99. In gact, Jason Taylor and Joey Porter both played like they were still in their prime harassing Brees all afternoon. JT had 2 sacks and forced 2 fumbles and spent most of the day applying pressure to Brees while Porter only added ½ sack statistically his presence was felt coming off the edge and forcing Brees either out of the pocket or to get rid of the ball quickly. Yeremiah Bell added a sack and a half coming from the safety spot and lead the team with 8 tackles. The Dolphins defense played extremely fast and aggressive but their Achilles heel all season has been allowing the big play and they allowed more than I even care to count on Sunday hence the misleading stats. Playing excellent for 2 downs and then allowing the big play has a tendency to screw up the stat sheet. Ricky Williams scored 3 touchdowns against the team that drafted him and along with running mate Ronnie Brown they both ran hard and physical like they always do. Until he went down with a season ending ACL injury, Will Allen, played like we’ve grown accustomed to with his usual blanket coverage. Sadly, Allen will be lost for the year and despite the emergence of rookie corners Vontae Davis and Sean Smith his presence, play-making ability and leadership will be sorely missed.

At the end of the day, it’s yet another heart breaking loss for the Dolphins, but they weren’t supposed to win this game anyway. They simply have to regroup, correct their mistakes, clean up the coaching blunders and try, as difficult as it may be, to forget about this loss and refocus on the fact, that despite all of these setbacks they are still 2-0 in the division. The road doesn’t get any easier as they hit the road to take on their arch rival New York Jets before heading to New England to take on the AFC East front running Patriots.

Burner’s Fearless Predictions Vol. 7

By Ronn Burner • on October 24, 2009

If the pattern continues of alternating good and bad weeks than I should have a good week here… but don’t go mortgaging your home to follow these picks. Not that any of you would ever be dumb enough to do that for a 44-46 handicapper. Yikes!

Asterisk (*) denotes Best Bets.

San Diego (2-3) @ Kansas City (1-5) +4.5
Arrowhead is always a tough place to play and the Chiefs are coming off a big win in Washington while the Chargers collapsed at home in a must win to division rival Denver. The Chargers should blow them out but they won’t because they have underachieved for years now.
Chargers 27-23

Minnesota (6-0) @ Pittsburgh (4-2) -4.5
Two certain playoff bound teams bang heads in one of the games of the week. Brett Favre has accounted for at least 2 wins by himself but the Vikings are not quite as good as advertised. Pittsburgh has a healthy Troy Polomalu now making that defense one of the best in the league.
Steelers 30-20

*Green Bay (3-2) @ Cleveland (1-5) +6.5
The Browns are playing better with Derek Anderson at quarterback but after pitching a 26-0 shutout at home to Detroit last week it looks like the Packers may have found themselves a little bit. Green Bay should be at least a touchdown better than the Cleveland.
Packers 27-16

New England (4-2) @ Tamps Bay (0-6) +14.5
The Patriot embarrassed the Titans last week with mind-boggling number in a little more than a half from Tom Brady in route to a 59-0 thumping. They are not likely to take the foot off the gas against the lowly Bucs.
Patriots 34-13

San Francisco (3-2) @ Houston (3-3) -3.5
The 49ers went into last weeks bye after getting hammered by Atlanta and should be ready to bounce back but the Texans have been steadily improving and are a very good offense team and should be able to find success through the air.
Texans 24-20

*Indianapolis (5-0) @ St. Louis (0-6) +12.5
The Colts are possessed right now and should have little trouble scoring against the pathetic Rams even though they are coming off their best game of the year losing a heart breaker to the Jags in OT. Peyton Manning is just too much for them to handle.
Colts 35-17

Buffalo (2-4) @ Carolina (2-3) -3.5
Carolina finally got their running game going last week with DeAngelo Williams gaining over 150 yards and Jonathan Stewart adding 117 of his own. The problem is Jake Delhomme continues to play poorly and Buffalo play great last week in upsetting the Jets on the Road.
Panthers 26-20

NY Jets (3-3) @ Oakland (2-4) +6.5
Two weeks ago and this game would have looked like a Jets blowout victory but after losing to Miami and at home to Buffalo they are reeling and Mark Sanchez is finally playing like a rookie. The Raiders as dysfunctional as they are have been playing sound defense and are coming off a huge upset over the Eagles.
Jets 20-17

*Chicago (3-2) @ Cincinnati (4-2) -1.5
These two teams are a roller coaster of good and bad play. Just when you think the Bengals are for real they start playing like the Bengals we’re used to seeing. The Bears are also struggling with consistency and are in a must win to keep the division title within reach.
Bears 30-28

New Orleans (5-0) @ Miami (2-3) +6.5
The Saints are an offensive juggernaut and shredded the #1 ranked defense of the Giants last week. The Dolphins are ball control offense that is very dangerous with their Wildcat formation. Points shouldn’t be a problem. Miami always seems to keeps games close even with their shaky pass defense so I’m the homer calling for the upset.
Dolphins 28-24

Atlanta (4-1) @ Dallas (3-2) -3.5
We keep waiting for Tony Romo and this talented Cowboys roster to explode but they just haven’t. Romo is wildly inconsistent and they keep battling injuries. Until they prove it I can’t jump on the band wagon. The Falcons are clicking and look to be a force in the playoffs.
Falcons 27-24

Arizona (3-2) @ NY Giants (5-1) -6.5
The Giants return home after getting worked in New Orleans and host the Cardinals coming off their bye week. I think the Cards can find some success through the air to keep this game within reach at all times despite the Giants firepower. Giants win a close one.
Giants 27-21

Monday, October 26
Philadelphia (3-2) @ Washington (2-4) +6.5
Philadelphia is coming off an embarrassing 13-9 loss in Oakland will look to take it out on the imploding Redskins on national television. I can’t imagine the Eagles playing as poorly as they did last week and I can’t imagine the Redskins all of the sudden playing well.
Eagles 31-20

Last week: 5-9

Season to Date ATS: 44-46

Last week Best Bets: 1-2

Season to Date Best Bets: 6-12

Dolphins Look to End Saints March

By Ronn Burner • on October 22, 2009

(5-0) New Orleans Saints vs. (2-3) Miami Dolphins +6.5 4:15 EST

WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL:

New Orleans is averaging an NFL-best 38.4 points per game and are coming off a 48-27 thrashing of the New York Giants #1 rated defense and Drew Brees and company even put up 34 points and 315 yards by halftime. Brees has led the Saints on opening drive touchdowns in every game so far this season and they have yet to trail for even one second all year winning each game by at least 14 points. Get the point? The Saints are an offensive juggernaut and will look to attack the Dolphins improving but still not good enough young secondary. Brees runs an extremely potent offense far more efficiently than you would think completing 69.2% of his passes with 13 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. He has weapons all over the field at his disposal including his favorite target WR Marques Colston on the receiving end of 394 yards on 25 receptions and 4 scores. As if you weren’t convinced of their firepower already than consider that Colston is 3rd on the team averaging a whopping 15.8 yards per reception, which is huge for a #1 wide receiver. WR Devery Henderson (14-241-1) is averaging 16.8 and WR Robert Meachem (6-151-2) is a big play machine with his staggering 25.2 yards per. This poses an obvious problem for a Dolphins secondary that has been less than stellar giving up numerous big plays and allowing 225 yards a game. In fairness, the Dolphins safeties, Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson, have played much better over the past two weeks and rookie corners Sean Smith and Vontae Davis have played solid and consistent football and more importantly have not made mistakes that usually plague young corners. Miami is very impressed with them on one side as they still rotate every two possessions while the always-reliable Will Allen has been excellent in both pass defense and tackling. The Saints ground game is often over looked for obvious reasons but they are averaging 157.8 yards per game on the ground lead by the talented duo of Pierre Thomas (48-284-3) and Mike Bell (60-263-2) who are averaging 5.9 and 4.4 yards per carry respectively. Oh by the way, I haven’t even mentioned Reggie Bush to tell you a little something about their overflow of weapons. The Dolphins front seven are playing inspired football and only allowing 76.4 yards a game on the ground while still applying pressure on the quarterback but this will be a different challenge than any they have faced this year and that includes Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. The Dolphins will need to do three things defensively to be successful 1.) Disrupt Dree Brees’ rhythm by disguising coverages and applying pressure, if he has time he will shred the Dolphins. 2.) Create turnovers and 3.) Much like they did with Peyton Manning they must keep Brees on the sidelines.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL:

Play Dolphins football. It’s really that simple. When the Dolphins do what they are best at they are an extremely difficult team to defend. The Wildcat and the Dolphins ground game is one of the best in the league averaging 177.0 yards a game and while the Saints are only allowing 83.4 yards per contest those numbers a bit deceiving since New Orleans is usually playing with a huge lead. Ronnie Brown (93-443-6) and Ricky Williams (61-316-2) are both playing at an exceptional level and punishing defenders with their bruising style. The Dolphins o-line has improved drastically since weeks one and two and the emergence of Chad Henne at quarterback and his ability to stretch the field and incorporating otherwise lackluster play from WR Ted Ginn and TE Anthony Fasano has made this offensive unit a force to reckon with. The one caveat being that it’s very important for the Dolphins to get on the board first. Their style of offense and those monster 12+ play pounding clock munching drives are meant to play with the lead, if they fall behind early than they are very susceptible to letting the game get out of hand early. Obviously, they will need to avoid that by not only marching and keeping the Saints offense sidelined but also protecting the football and wearing their defense down in the process.

KEY MATCHUP:

Dolphins Front 4 vs. Drew Brees

It’s hard to imagine the Dolphins slowing down the Saints high-powered offense without disrupting Brees and his timing with his receivers without constant pressure on him. The bigger the push up front by Jason Ferguson, Kendall Langford and Randy Starks the more things can go right for Miami such as batted balls, quicker decisions by Brees resulting in check downs, interceptions or incomplete passes not to mention the opportunity for Jason Taylor, Phillip Merling and Joey Porter to add to their sack totals. Quite simply, the more time Brees has to get comfortable in the pocket the more points the Saints will score.

FEARLESS PREDICTION:

This game is really a battle of game plans and styles if you ask me. Finesse versus power. The Saints will come out swinging looking for the homerun from the start. The Dolphins will come out and try to impose their will with a physical time consuming drive. Both are very good at what they do and whichever team finds the most success at executing their game plan will most likely be victorious. I believe the Saints have obstacles they have yet to face such as the heat and grass in Miami, the physicality of the home team, the length of time between offensive series and the Dolphins are hungry and aggressive and in a more desperate situation as they simply need this game more to keep up with the Patriots.

Saints 24

Dolphins 28

Burner’s Fearless Roundup Vol. 6

By Ronn Burner • on October 19, 2009

Just another wild and wacky weekend in the NFL.

- Two shutouts.

- Two overtime games.

- 59 point victory.

- Raiders and Bills win.

- Giants and Eagles lose.

All in all I fell apart going 5-8 thus far and still have a game to go tonight to hopefully bring my overall record even at 45-45. Yikes!

Asterisk (*) denotes Best Bets

NY Giants (5-0) @ New Orleans (4-0) -3.5
The Saints are at home coming off a BYE and Drew Brees is due for a huge game but the Giants are as solid across the board as anybody and nobody should be favored by more that a field goal against them, which actually scares me since the Saints are favored by this much. I’m biting and taking the Giants in a shootout.
Giants 34-31

SAINTS 48-27

The Saints put up 34 points by halftime on the #1 rated overall defense and #1 against the pass in the NFL, make that formerly #1 ranked defense. This Saints offense is sick. The Giants are still an elite team but it’s just scary that the Saints could do this to them.

*St. Louis (0-5) @ Jacksonville (2-3) -9.5
Marc Bulger should help the Rams offense but then again so could Ryan Leaf. The Jags are coming off a 41-0 drubbing in Seattle so getting the Rams at home should be the perfect way to get over it. I think MJD, David Garrard and Mike Sims-Walker come to life and get pull to .500.
Jaguars 24-13

JAGUARS 23-20 OT

The Rams are a much better team with a healthy Marc Bulger at quarterback but they still have a long way to go. The Jags bounced back from a 41-0 drubbing in Seattle last week but still can’t feel great having been taken to overtime by the bottom feeding Rams.

Houston (2-3) @ Cincinnati (4-1) -4.5
The Texans are very good offensively but they can’t stop anybody. The Bengals are pretty good defensively but their offense isn’t nearly as good as people think. I think the Texans can score with Cinci.
Bengals 27-23

TEXANS 28-17

Just when you think the Bengals are for real they lay an egg on their home turf to an underachieving opponent. At 3-3 the Texans can score with anybody and if their defense plays like this they very well make a playoff push.

Cleveland (1-4) @ Pittsburgh (3-2) -14.5
It’s hard for me to imagine the Browns stopping the Steelers and it’s even harder to imagine them scoring with the return of Troy Polamolu. I see 5 Brown turnovers. That said the Steelers don’t cover and have given up late scores so I sense a back door Browns cover.
Steelers 30-17

STEELERS 27-14

The Steelers did what they do and the Browns played hard but they were just out classed. A big day for the Steelers with both division threats, Baltimore and Cincinnati, losing.

Carolina (1-3) @ Tampa Bay (0-5) +3.5
Both of these teams are terrible, they really are. That said I think the Bucs QB Josh Johnson or whatever his name is might actually be pretty decent and they are a home dog and I think they can keep it to a field goal.
Panthers 16-13

PANTHERS 28-21

Carolina finally found success on the ground with DeAngelo Williams rushing for 150 yards and running mate Jonathan Stewart adding 117 of his own. Jake Delhomme continues to struggle keeping the Bucs in the game with a gift pick 6 late.

Baltimore (3-2) @ Minnesota (5-0) -2.5
In the battle of two of the more over rated teams in the league, although they are both still very good, there are obvious chinks in their armor. The Ravens pass defense is suspect and Brett Favre will look to take advantage of it. It is hard to imagine the Ravens losing 3 in a row but they’re about to.
Vikings 23-20

VIKINGS 33-31

Brett Favre played excellent again and probably deserves the credit for yet another Vikings win. The Ravens offense came to life but their defense uncharacteristically couldn’t seem to stop the Vikings offense. Both playoff bound certainties.

Detroit (1-4) @ Green Bay (2-2) -13.5
The Lions are no longer the laughing stock of the league and there are at least 8 teams worse than them. I think Green Bay is vastly over rated and expect the Lions to stay within striking distance throughout. They can score and this line is too high.
Packers 27-20

PACKERS 26-20

The Lions posed little threat as Aaron Rodgers put two quick touchdowns on the board and never looked back.

*Kansas City (0-5) @ Washington (2-3) -6.5
How the hell are the Redskins a 6.5 point favorite against anybody!?
Chiefs 23-13

CHIEFS 14-6

The Redskins are quickly becoming one of the worst teams in the league. Get this: they have yet to face an opponent with a win under the belt… until of course they hand them one by losing to the otherwise winless opponent. Jim Zorn will be unemployed very soon.

*Philadelphia (3-1) @ Oakland (1-4) +13.5
Next…
Eagles 38-6

RAIDERS 13-9

In the shocker of the weekend the Eagles inexplicably allowed the Raiders to embarrass them while holding them to 9 points. The Eagles are clearly better than the Raiders still but it just goes to show you “that’s why they play the game”.

Arizona (2-2) @ Seattle (2-3) -2.5
Seattle is good at home and the Cardinals are bad on the road. There are major injury concerns with the entire Seahawks o-line but they do get Matt Hasselback back and the Cardinals defense will give up points. The Seahawks torched the Jaguars last week 41-0.
Seattle 28-23

CARDINALS 27-3

The one game I wish I would have listened to my own thoughts instead of being persuaded to go the other way. I liked Arizona because they can score and the Seahawks are a mash unit with injuries all over their offensive line and quarterback Matt Hasselback yet I still picked them like a dummy. The Cardinals did what they do and Seattle is back to reality after their 41-0 rout of Jacksonville last week.

Tennessee (0-5) @ New England (3-2) -9.5
One of these weeks the Patriots are going to explode offensively and the Titans season is over and they seem to have lost their will. I think Tom Brady and Randy Moss light it up against the weak Titans secondary.
Patriots 34-13

PATRIOTS 59-0

Wow. Tom Brady was 29-34 for 380 yards and 6 touchdowns until he was pulled after only one drive in the 2nd half. Shame on the Titans for quitting and good for the Patriots for making them pay for it. The rest of the league better take notice becuase it looks like the Patriots are finding their groove.

Buffalo (1-4) @ NY Jets (3-2) -9.5
The Jets return home after a tough loss in Miami and look to destroy a Buffalo team that is in shambles. Buffalo only managed to score two field goals against the lowly Browns. The Jets blitz will devour them and score at least once.
Jets 27-0

BILLS 16-13 OT

Mark Sanchez is learning that life isn’t always as easy as it once appeared falling to the struggling Bills while throwing 5 interceptions. The reeling Jets blitzing scheme has failed them 2 weeks in a row after falling in Miami last week. The Bills confused Sanchez and the cold and windy weather obviously affected some of his throws.

Chicago (3-1) @ Atlanta (3-1) -3.5
I do not believe in Jay Cutler one bit. I don’t understand why he is deemed a star. I expect at least two interceptions against a very good Falcons defense and the Bears without Brian Urlacher will not stop a very explosive Falcons offense led by Matt Ryan.
Falcons 30-24

FALCONS 21-14

The Bears drop another game behind the Vikings in the standings to a young and talented Falcons team that improves to 4-1. A hard fought grudge match between two physical teams that was won by the Falcons defense holding off Jay Cutler and the Bears in the closing seconds.

Monday, October 19
Denver (5-0) @ San Diego (2-2) -3.5
Maybe the Broncos really are this good but I still refuse to believe it. They’ve burned me all year long but I’m bound to get one right eventually. The Chargers will be ready and need this game at home to avoid falling three games back in the division.
Chargers 31-27

BRONCOS 34-23

Ok, fine. I admit. I had zero faith in the Broncos. I’m convinced now that they are pretty darn good. I hate that they are but 6-0 in the NFL is no joke. As for the Chargers, I do believe that they are and have been one of the more over rated teams in the NFL over the past 6 years. Not sure why, they really haven’t proven anything in any game that actually matters.

Last week: 5-9

Season to Date ATS: 44-46

This week Best Bets: 1-2

Season to Date Best Bets: 6-12

Dolphins Playoff Bound! (?)

By Ronn Burner • on October 20, 2009

Things certainly looked bleak for the Miami Dolphins after starting the season 0-3 and still staring at 13 games against the league’s most difficult schedule with 2 heartbreaking losses to boot not to mention losing their starting quarterback, Chad Pennington, for the year. As we all know, things can change very quickly in the NFL. Looking at the Dolphins remaining schedule and basing it on what has transpired this year already and all of the sudden things actually look pretty good. Chad Henne looks, albeit briefly, to be what we all hoped he could be, the Wildcat is clicking on all cylinders, the O-line has gelled together beautifully, Ted Ginn showed he is capable of making a big play, the Dolphins front seven has proven to be solid and what once looked like an unmanageable schedule now appears to be very manageable with teams being nowhere near as strong as expected. Now obviously the Dolphins need to take care of business sitting at 2-3 and this outlook is based on the likelihood that it will take at least 10 wins to reach the post season meaning a strong finish of 8-3, which on paper is easy enough to calculate by winning every game you “should” win while hopefully snatching a win or two along the way from opponents that are clearly playoff calibre and losing would hardly be deemed a sin.

2009 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Time/Result
Sep 13	@Atlanta	Lost 7-19
Sep 21	Indianapolis	Lost 23-27
Sep 27	@San Diego	Lost 13-23
Oct 4	Buffalo	Won 38-10
Oct 12	N.Y. Jets	Won 31-27
Week 6	BYE
Oct 25	New Orleans	4:15pm
Nov 1	@N.Y. Jets	1:00pm
Nov 8	@New England	1:00pm
Nov 15	Tampa Bay	1:00pm
Nov 19	@Carolina	8:20pm
Nov 29	@Buffalo	1:00pm
Dec 6	New England	8:20pm
Dec 13	@Jacksonville	1:00pm
Dec 20	@Tennessee	1:00pm
Dec 27	Houston	1:00pm
Jan 3	Pittsburgh	1:00pm

Now obviously there is no way to know how things will unfold and anything can happen via injuries, performance, funny bounces, fluky plays, underachieving, overachieving etcetera etcetera but based on that schedule and how it would appear right now I think it’s safe to say the the Dolphins will be favored to win at least six of these games and possibly more. (0-6) Tampa Bay, at (2-4) Carolina, at (2-4) Buffalo, at (3-3) Jacksonville, at (0-6) Tennessee and (3-3) Houston “should” by definition be Dolphins victories. We know the Dolphins are expected to lose this week in New Orleans (-6.5) and it’s probably safe to say that Miami will be expected to lose in (4-2) New England and in the final game of the year they host the defending Super Bowl Champion (4-2) Pittsburgh Steelers in a game that will probably matter a great deal to each team and I am willing to concede to the possibility that the Dolphins could be the home underdog. If those nine games followed the letter of the Vegas line law then after doing the math (adding their current 2-3 record to the 6-3 Vegas projected record over the 9 games mentioned) Miami would have an 8-6 acccumulative record slated, which is obviously out of order based on totals as opposed to a week to week wins and losses.

Since the goal is 10 wins that leaves two games remaining that we have yet to account for and as luck would have it’s November 1st at the suddenly reeling (3-2) New York Jets whom Miami has already beaten once and December 6th against the suddenly lethal New England Patriots who the Dolphins have yet to face. Splitting with the Patriots would be considered a very good thing, however, splitting these two games may not be good enough and will leave Miami at 9-7 and with what would be under these circumstances a 4-2 division record that may or may not be good enough for a tie-breaker situation and probably wouldn’t matter since I expect both the Patriots and the Wildcard eventual winner to be at least 10-6. Point being, win the ones you should, sweep the Jets, split with the Patriots and come January the Dolphins will find themselves at 10-6 and in the Playoffs.