The (2-1) Miami Dolphins host the Tom Brady led (2-1) New England Patriots for as big of a game as you’ll ever see for a Week 4 match-up on Monday Night Football. Miami is coming off a tough loss in their home opener last Sunday night to another division foe, the New York Jets, and desperately in need of a win here to avoid dropping to 1-2 in the division with both losses coming at home to the Jets and Patriots.
Conversely, the Patriots will be looking to avoid the same fate, like Miami, having already lost to the Jets and their only divisional win coming against the less than stellar Buffalo Bills. To make matters worse for Miami and New England, barring the entire Jets roster coming down with the Swine Flu, they will move to 3-1 after beating up the Bills this week too. Hence, the significance of this game.
The winner will vault themselves into prime position in the increasingly challenging AFC East with a 3-1 record and 2-1 inside the division while the loser will wake up Tuesday morning scrambling and trying to fix the problems that have them sitting at 2-2 and 1-2 in the division having lost to both the Jets and the other first place team.
WHEN MIAMI HAS THE BALL: Averaging 319 yards per game of total offense sounds decent but when you consider that only ranks 18th, which is only one spot ahead of the San Francisco 49ers who just fired their Offensive Coordinator and it paints a frightening picture. Luckily 112 yards of that comes on the ground where where they are averaging 29 attempts at a 3.8 yards per carry average. New England has also allowed 82 points so far this season so on paper the Dolphins match up well offensively.
Expect to see the “Wildcat”, better known as the “Buzz Kill” these days with it’s juggernaut-esque numbers of 1.8 yards per play. Yup, 16 Wildcat plays run for a grand total of 20.8 yards. I guess it serves a purpose, sort of like your wisdom teeth or appendix or tonsils serve a purpose right? I will not be back on the “Buzz Kill” bandwagon until Tyler Thigpen runs it… then and only then will I think it’s totally awesome! Imagine a stud athlete that happens to be a pretty darn good quarterback run that. I don’t get why Dan “Hot Seat” Henning and Tony “Don’t Call Me Tuna” Sparano don’t see that.
Chad Henne showed Dolfans a glimpse of what they hope to be the beginning of a wonderful career as the franchise quarterback. His QB Rating sits at 88.1 and I have no idea what that means but I do know it’s better than the 75.1 he had last season and just the eye ball test alone tells me that guy can flat sling it and if he continues to improve in his pocket awareness and not getting locked in on his targets then he very well may be all that and a bag of chips.
Let’s be honest, Bill Belichek will take away what he feels Miami does best and it will be up to Henning to recognize that and exploit the Patriots defense elsewhere. We do know what that is yet but it won’t take long to figure out. If they load the box, Henne has to exploit the match-ups that will be in our favor through the air. If they don’t think we can run on them and they try to shut down the passing attack, the offensive line has to bulldoze holes for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. It’s as simple as that really, take what Belichek is willing to give us because the Patriots defense isn’t good enough to take away both.
WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL: It doesn’t take Mark Zuckerberg (See “The Social Network”. Amazing film!) to recognize that Tom Brady is the key to stopping New England. You don’t pressure Brady, you don’t win the game. No more questions. After the game, if Cameron Wake and Koa Misi can’t tell you what kind of toothpaste Brady uses then my game recap will be about as positive as any Dolfans reaction to the words “Ted Ginn”.
Vontae Davis has emerged as a one of the best in the game and he will have to live up to that standard whether he follows the “Slouch” around or just stays to his side. I actually suspect he’ll follow Moss in order to not let Brady and Moss treat Jason Allen like a baby treats a diaper. The only guarantee I can make is that they will be coming after Allen. Death, taxes and Dolphins opposition coming after Jason Allen.
Jared Odrick, Channing Crowder and Ike Alama-Francis are all out affecting the Dolphins depth so it’s imperative the Dolphins get solid play at the NT from Paul Soliai since Randy Starks is forced to move outside. The Patriots actually have only 17 fewer rushing attempts than passing and are averaging 123 yards per game. Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk are out leaving the bulk of the carried to BenJarvis Green-Ellis. Not sure if that’s good or bad quite frankly. I think this kid is pretty good.
KEY MATCH-UP: Dolphins Entire Defense Vs. TE’s Aaron Hernandez and Bruce Grandkowski Call me a coward for not being more specific but match-ups will change throughout the game and it will honestly take a collective effort to keep these two guys in check in not only the passing game but they cannot seal the ends, I’m talking to you Cameron, like the Jets did. For whatever unknown reason, opposing tight ends have been feasting on the Dolphins secondary for 2 years now and the Patriots happen to have two very good ones. Dustin Keller shredded Miami last week in the first half but Mike Nolan made some adjustments and essentially shut him down the rest of the way. I don’t care if BJGE runs through us like a high school paper tunnel or Moss catches 10 for 150 as long as the tight end doesn’t beat us. That’s all I ask.
FEARLESS PREDICTION:
I think the Dolphins offense is just more than the Patriots defense can handle really. If the Dolphins can get the Patriots off the field on 3rd downs then I expect them to win. Gigantic “if” though.
Dolphins 30-24
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