Dolphins Look to End Saints March

By Ronn Burner • on October 22, 2009

(5-0) New Orleans Saints vs. (2-3) Miami Dolphins +6.5 4:15 EST

WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL:

New Orleans is averaging an NFL-best 38.4 points per game and are coming off a 48-27 thrashing of the New York Giants #1 rated defense and Drew Brees and company even put up 34 points and 315 yards by halftime. Brees has led the Saints on opening drive touchdowns in every game so far this season and they have yet to trail for even one second all year winning each game by at least 14 points. Get the point? The Saints are an offensive juggernaut and will look to attack the Dolphins improving but still not good enough young secondary. Brees runs an extremely potent offense far more efficiently than you would think completing 69.2% of his passes with 13 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. He has weapons all over the field at his disposal including his favorite target WR Marques Colston on the receiving end of 394 yards on 25 receptions and 4 scores. As if you weren’t convinced of their firepower already than consider that Colston is 3rd on the team averaging a whopping 15.8 yards per reception, which is huge for a #1 wide receiver. WR Devery Henderson (14-241-1) is averaging 16.8 and WR Robert Meachem (6-151-2) is a big play machine with his staggering 25.2 yards per. This poses an obvious problem for a Dolphins secondary that has been less than stellar giving up numerous big plays and allowing 225 yards a game. In fairness, the Dolphins safeties, Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson, have played much better over the past two weeks and rookie corners Sean Smith and Vontae Davis have played solid and consistent football and more importantly have not made mistakes that usually plague young corners. Miami is very impressed with them on one side as they still rotate every two possessions while the always-reliable Will Allen has been excellent in both pass defense and tackling. The Saints ground game is often over looked for obvious reasons but they are averaging 157.8 yards per game on the ground lead by the talented duo of Pierre Thomas (48-284-3) and Mike Bell (60-263-2) who are averaging 5.9 and 4.4 yards per carry respectively. Oh by the way, I haven’t even mentioned Reggie Bush to tell you a little something about their overflow of weapons. The Dolphins front seven are playing inspired football and only allowing 76.4 yards a game on the ground while still applying pressure on the quarterback but this will be a different challenge than any they have faced this year and that includes Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. The Dolphins will need to do three things defensively to be successful 1.) Disrupt Dree Brees’ rhythm by disguising coverages and applying pressure, if he has time he will shred the Dolphins. 2.) Create turnovers and 3.) Much like they did with Peyton Manning they must keep Brees on the sidelines.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL:

Play Dolphins football. It’s really that simple. When the Dolphins do what they are best at they are an extremely difficult team to defend. The Wildcat and the Dolphins ground game is one of the best in the league averaging 177.0 yards a game and while the Saints are only allowing 83.4 yards per contest those numbers a bit deceiving since New Orleans is usually playing with a huge lead. Ronnie Brown (93-443-6) and Ricky Williams (61-316-2) are both playing at an exceptional level and punishing defenders with their bruising style. The Dolphins o-line has improved drastically since weeks one and two and the emergence of Chad Henne at quarterback and his ability to stretch the field and incorporating otherwise lackluster play from WR Ted Ginn and TE Anthony Fasano has made this offensive unit a force to reckon with. The one caveat being that it’s very important for the Dolphins to get on the board first. Their style of offense and those monster 12+ play pounding clock munching drives are meant to play with the lead, if they fall behind early than they are very susceptible to letting the game get out of hand early. Obviously, they will need to avoid that by not only marching and keeping the Saints offense sidelined but also protecting the football and wearing their defense down in the process.

KEY MATCHUP:

Dolphins Front 4 vs. Drew Brees

It’s hard to imagine the Dolphins slowing down the Saints high-powered offense without disrupting Brees and his timing with his receivers without constant pressure on him. The bigger the push up front by Jason Ferguson, Kendall Langford and Randy Starks the more things can go right for Miami such as batted balls, quicker decisions by Brees resulting in check downs, interceptions or incomplete passes not to mention the opportunity for Jason Taylor, Phillip Merling and Joey Porter to add to their sack totals. Quite simply, the more time Brees has to get comfortable in the pocket the more points the Saints will score.

FEARLESS PREDICTION:

This game is really a battle of game plans and styles if you ask me. Finesse versus power. The Saints will come out swinging looking for the homerun from the start. The Dolphins will come out and try to impose their will with a physical time consuming drive. Both are very good at what they do and whichever team finds the most success at executing their game plan will most likely be victorious. I believe the Saints have obstacles they have yet to face such as the heat and grass in Miami, the physicality of the home team, the length of time between offensive series and the Dolphins are hungry and aggressive and in a more desperate situation as they simply need this game more to keep up with the Patriots.

Saints 24

Dolphins 28

Burner’s Fearless Roundup Vol. 6

By Ronn Burner • on October 19, 2009

Just another wild and wacky weekend in the NFL.

- Two shutouts.

- Two overtime games.

- 59 point victory.

- Raiders and Bills win.

- Giants and Eagles lose.

All in all I fell apart going 5-8 thus far and still have a game to go tonight to hopefully bring my overall record even at 45-45. Yikes!

Asterisk (*) denotes Best Bets

NY Giants (5-0) @ New Orleans (4-0) -3.5
The Saints are at home coming off a BYE and Drew Brees is due for a huge game but the Giants are as solid across the board as anybody and nobody should be favored by more that a field goal against them, which actually scares me since the Saints are favored by this much. I’m biting and taking the Giants in a shootout.
Giants 34-31

SAINTS 48-27

The Saints put up 34 points by halftime on the #1 rated overall defense and #1 against the pass in the NFL, make that formerly #1 ranked defense. This Saints offense is sick. The Giants are still an elite team but it’s just scary that the Saints could do this to them.

*St. Louis (0-5) @ Jacksonville (2-3) -9.5
Marc Bulger should help the Rams offense but then again so could Ryan Leaf. The Jags are coming off a 41-0 drubbing in Seattle so getting the Rams at home should be the perfect way to get over it. I think MJD, David Garrard and Mike Sims-Walker come to life and get pull to .500.
Jaguars 24-13

JAGUARS 23-20 OT

The Rams are a much better team with a healthy Marc Bulger at quarterback but they still have a long way to go. The Jags bounced back from a 41-0 drubbing in Seattle last week but still can’t feel great having been taken to overtime by the bottom feeding Rams.

Houston (2-3) @ Cincinnati (4-1) -4.5
The Texans are very good offensively but they can’t stop anybody. The Bengals are pretty good defensively but their offense isn’t nearly as good as people think. I think the Texans can score with Cinci.
Bengals 27-23

TEXANS 28-17

Just when you think the Bengals are for real they lay an egg on their home turf to an underachieving opponent. At 3-3 the Texans can score with anybody and if their defense plays like this they very well make a playoff push.

Cleveland (1-4) @ Pittsburgh (3-2) -14.5
It’s hard for me to imagine the Browns stopping the Steelers and it’s even harder to imagine them scoring with the return of Troy Polamolu. I see 5 Brown turnovers. That said the Steelers don’t cover and have given up late scores so I sense a back door Browns cover.
Steelers 30-17

STEELERS 27-14

The Steelers did what they do and the Browns played hard but they were just out classed. A big day for the Steelers with both division threats, Baltimore and Cincinnati, losing.

Carolina (1-3) @ Tampa Bay (0-5) +3.5
Both of these teams are terrible, they really are. That said I think the Bucs QB Josh Johnson or whatever his name is might actually be pretty decent and they are a home dog and I think they can keep it to a field goal.
Panthers 16-13

PANTHERS 28-21

Carolina finally found success on the ground with DeAngelo Williams rushing for 150 yards and running mate Jonathan Stewart adding 117 of his own. Jake Delhomme continues to struggle keeping the Bucs in the game with a gift pick 6 late.

Baltimore (3-2) @ Minnesota (5-0) -2.5
In the battle of two of the more over rated teams in the league, although they are both still very good, there are obvious chinks in their armor. The Ravens pass defense is suspect and Brett Favre will look to take advantage of it. It is hard to imagine the Ravens losing 3 in a row but they’re about to.
Vikings 23-20

VIKINGS 33-31

Brett Favre played excellent again and probably deserves the credit for yet another Vikings win. The Ravens offense came to life but their defense uncharacteristically couldn’t seem to stop the Vikings offense. Both playoff bound certainties.

Detroit (1-4) @ Green Bay (2-2) -13.5
The Lions are no longer the laughing stock of the league and there are at least 8 teams worse than them. I think Green Bay is vastly over rated and expect the Lions to stay within striking distance throughout. They can score and this line is too high.
Packers 27-20

PACKERS 26-20

The Lions posed little threat as Aaron Rodgers put two quick touchdowns on the board and never looked back.

*Kansas City (0-5) @ Washington (2-3) -6.5
How the hell are the Redskins a 6.5 point favorite against anybody!?
Chiefs 23-13

CHIEFS 14-6

The Redskins are quickly becoming one of the worst teams in the league. Get this: they have yet to face an opponent with a win under the belt… until of course they hand them one by losing to the otherwise winless opponent. Jim Zorn will be unemployed very soon.

*Philadelphia (3-1) @ Oakland (1-4) +13.5
Next…
Eagles 38-6

RAIDERS 13-9

In the shocker of the weekend the Eagles inexplicably allowed the Raiders to embarrass them while holding them to 9 points. The Eagles are clearly better than the Raiders still but it just goes to show you “that’s why they play the game”.

Arizona (2-2) @ Seattle (2-3) -2.5
Seattle is good at home and the Cardinals are bad on the road. There are major injury concerns with the entire Seahawks o-line but they do get Matt Hasselback back and the Cardinals defense will give up points. The Seahawks torched the Jaguars last week 41-0.
Seattle 28-23

CARDINALS 27-3

The one game I wish I would have listened to my own thoughts instead of being persuaded to go the other way. I liked Arizona because they can score and the Seahawks are a mash unit with injuries all over their offensive line and quarterback Matt Hasselback yet I still picked them like a dummy. The Cardinals did what they do and Seattle is back to reality after their 41-0 rout of Jacksonville last week.

Tennessee (0-5) @ New England (3-2) -9.5
One of these weeks the Patriots are going to explode offensively and the Titans season is over and they seem to have lost their will. I think Tom Brady and Randy Moss light it up against the weak Titans secondary.
Patriots 34-13

PATRIOTS 59-0

Wow. Tom Brady was 29-34 for 380 yards and 6 touchdowns until he was pulled after only one drive in the 2nd half. Shame on the Titans for quitting and good for the Patriots for making them pay for it. The rest of the league better take notice becuase it looks like the Patriots are finding their groove.

Buffalo (1-4) @ NY Jets (3-2) -9.5
The Jets return home after a tough loss in Miami and look to destroy a Buffalo team that is in shambles. Buffalo only managed to score two field goals against the lowly Browns. The Jets blitz will devour them and score at least once.
Jets 27-0

BILLS 16-13 OT

Mark Sanchez is learning that life isn’t always as easy as it once appeared falling to the struggling Bills while throwing 5 interceptions. The reeling Jets blitzing scheme has failed them 2 weeks in a row after falling in Miami last week. The Bills confused Sanchez and the cold and windy weather obviously affected some of his throws.

Chicago (3-1) @ Atlanta (3-1) -3.5
I do not believe in Jay Cutler one bit. I don’t understand why he is deemed a star. I expect at least two interceptions against a very good Falcons defense and the Bears without Brian Urlacher will not stop a very explosive Falcons offense led by Matt Ryan.
Falcons 30-24

FALCONS 21-14

The Bears drop another game behind the Vikings in the standings to a young and talented Falcons team that improves to 4-1. A hard fought grudge match between two physical teams that was won by the Falcons defense holding off Jay Cutler and the Bears in the closing seconds.

Monday, October 19
Denver (5-0) @ San Diego (2-2) -3.5
Maybe the Broncos really are this good but I still refuse to believe it. They’ve burned me all year long but I’m bound to get one right eventually. The Chargers will be ready and need this game at home to avoid falling three games back in the division.
Chargers 31-27

BRONCOS 34-23

Ok, fine. I admit. I had zero faith in the Broncos. I’m convinced now that they are pretty darn good. I hate that they are but 6-0 in the NFL is no joke. As for the Chargers, I do believe that they are and have been one of the more over rated teams in the NFL over the past 6 years. Not sure why, they really haven’t proven anything in any game that actually matters.

Last week: 5-9

Season to Date ATS: 44-46

This week Best Bets: 1-2

Season to Date Best Bets: 6-12

Dolphins Playoff Bound! (?)

By Ronn Burner • on October 20, 2009

Things certainly looked bleak for the Miami Dolphins after starting the season 0-3 and still staring at 13 games against the league’s most difficult schedule with 2 heartbreaking losses to boot not to mention losing their starting quarterback, Chad Pennington, for the year. As we all know, things can change very quickly in the NFL. Looking at the Dolphins remaining schedule and basing it on what has transpired this year already and all of the sudden things actually look pretty good. Chad Henne looks, albeit briefly, to be what we all hoped he could be, the Wildcat is clicking on all cylinders, the O-line has gelled together beautifully, Ted Ginn showed he is capable of making a big play, the Dolphins front seven has proven to be solid and what once looked like an unmanageable schedule now appears to be very manageable with teams being nowhere near as strong as expected. Now obviously the Dolphins need to take care of business sitting at 2-3 and this outlook is based on the likelihood that it will take at least 10 wins to reach the post season meaning a strong finish of 8-3, which on paper is easy enough to calculate by winning every game you “should” win while hopefully snatching a win or two along the way from opponents that are clearly playoff calibre and losing would hardly be deemed a sin.

2009 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Time/Result
Sep 13	@Atlanta	Lost 7-19
Sep 21	Indianapolis	Lost 23-27
Sep 27	@San Diego	Lost 13-23
Oct 4	Buffalo	Won 38-10
Oct 12	N.Y. Jets	Won 31-27
Week 6	BYE
Oct 25	New Orleans	4:15pm
Nov 1	@N.Y. Jets	1:00pm
Nov 8	@New England	1:00pm
Nov 15	Tampa Bay	1:00pm
Nov 19	@Carolina	8:20pm
Nov 29	@Buffalo	1:00pm
Dec 6	New England	8:20pm
Dec 13	@Jacksonville	1:00pm
Dec 20	@Tennessee	1:00pm
Dec 27	Houston	1:00pm
Jan 3	Pittsburgh	1:00pm

Now obviously there is no way to know how things will unfold and anything can happen via injuries, performance, funny bounces, fluky plays, underachieving, overachieving etcetera etcetera but based on that schedule and how it would appear right now I think it’s safe to say the the Dolphins will be favored to win at least six of these games and possibly more. (0-6) Tampa Bay, at (2-4) Carolina, at (2-4) Buffalo, at (3-3) Jacksonville, at (0-6) Tennessee and (3-3) Houston “should” by definition be Dolphins victories. We know the Dolphins are expected to lose this week in New Orleans (-6.5) and it’s probably safe to say that Miami will be expected to lose in (4-2) New England and in the final game of the year they host the defending Super Bowl Champion (4-2) Pittsburgh Steelers in a game that will probably matter a great deal to each team and I am willing to concede to the possibility that the Dolphins could be the home underdog. If those nine games followed the letter of the Vegas line law then after doing the math (adding their current 2-3 record to the 6-3 Vegas projected record over the 9 games mentioned) Miami would have an 8-6 acccumulative record slated, which is obviously out of order based on totals as opposed to a week to week wins and losses.

Since the goal is 10 wins that leaves two games remaining that we have yet to account for and as luck would have it’s November 1st at the suddenly reeling (3-2) New York Jets whom Miami has already beaten once and December 6th against the suddenly lethal New England Patriots who the Dolphins have yet to face. Splitting with the Patriots would be considered a very good thing, however, splitting these two games may not be good enough and will leave Miami at 9-7 and with what would be under these circumstances a 4-2 division record that may or may not be good enough for a tie-breaker situation and probably wouldn’t matter since I expect both the Patriots and the Wildcard eventual winner to be at least 10-6. Point being, win the ones you should, sweep the Jets, split with the Patriots and come January the Dolphins will find themselves at 10-6 and in the Playoffs.

Burner’s Fearless Roundup Vol. 5

By Ronn Burner • on October 13, 2009

ATS predicted winners in bold.

Asterisk (*) denotes Best Bets

Oakland (1-3) @ Giants (4-0) -15.5

GIANTS 44-7

If it wasn’t for a couple blown calls costing the Giants 2 more touchdowns this game may have been 70-0. I’m not kidding. The Raiders are that bad. It’s a good thing they got that 1 win because they’re not getting another.

Dallas (2-2) @ Kansas City (0-4) +8.5

COWBOYS 26-20 OT

Miles Austin saved the day for the Cowboys who struggled yet again against a lesser team. The Cowboys are inevitably heading towards changes. They just can’t seem to get clicking.

*Minnesota (4-0) @ St. Louis (0-4) +10.5

VIKINGS 38-10

Minnesota and Brett Favre just keep motoring through people and find themselves in the drivers seat at 5-0. St. Louis just doesn’t have the weapons to compete.

Washington (2-2) @ Carolina (0-3) -3.5

PANTHERS 20-17

I’m beginning to think that Carolina is a field goal better than the likes of Cleveland, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Buffalo. Doesn’t say much for the Redskins does it?

Tampa Bay (0-4) @ Philadelphia (2-1) -13.5

EAGLES 33-14

The Eagles look to be a team possessed this year. They have weapons all over the field and are clearly headed for a key matchup with division rival New York. Winning that game would send a league wide message.

Pittsburgh (2-2) @ Detroit (1-3) +10.5

STEELERS 28-20

The Lions gave Pittsburgh more than they would have liked but in the end the Steelers held on and find themselves looking up at both Cincinnati and Baltimore. Detroit is much improved and clearly better than at least 5 teams in the league, maybe even 10.

Cleveland (0-4) @ Buffalo (1-3) -5.5

BROWNS 6-3

Holy crap. Puke.

Cincinnati (3-1) @ Baltimore (3-1) -8.5

BENGALS 17-14

The Bengals are that fluky last second touchdown in week against the Broncos from being 5-0. It’s not by accident. They are good on both sides and things are looking good. Baltimore is obviously for real in a very competitive division sans Cleveland.

Atlanta (2-1) @ San Francisco (3-1) -2.5

FALCONS 45-10

Might be the biggest shocker of the weekend. Not the Falcons victory but winning by such a wide margin raises eye brows about the 49ers.

*New England (3-1) @ Denver (4-0) +3.5

BRONCOS 20-17 OT

It’s hard to argue with what the Broncos have done moving to an impressive and surprising 5-0. We keep waiting for the Patriots to return to form but they just haven’t done so.

Houston (2-2) @ Arizona (1-2) -5.5

CARDINALS 28-21

The Texans were held at the 1 yard line on three separate occasions by the Cardinals defense. That has to hurt and isn’t supposed to happen with Steve Slaton in your backfield.

Jacksonville (2-2) @ Seattle (1-3) -1.5

SEAHAWKS 41-0

Seattle destroyed the Jaguars who just didn’t show up. 41-0 is embarrassing and things in Jacksonville are a long way from getting better. What happened?

*Indianapolis (4-0) @ Tennessee (0-4) +3.5

COLTS 31-9

Peyton Manning is playing flawlessly and on his way to another MVP award with his sights set on another ring… possibly against his brother? The Titans have to be thinking Vince Young at this point which isn’t a good sign.

Monday, October 12
NY Jets (3-1) @ Miami (1-3) +1.5

DOLPHINS 31-27

Chad Henne 1, Mark Sanhez 0. Another classic Dolphins-Jets battle that was won in the final seconds on a Ronnie Brown 2 yard touchdown run out of the Wildcat. The AFC East looks to be in for a fight.

Last week ATS: 9-5

Season to Date ATS: 39-37

Last week Best Bets: 2-1

Season to Date Best Bets: 5-10

Classic Dolphins-Jets MNF Duel

By Ronn Burner • on October 14, 2009

The Miami Dolphins Chad Henne and New York Jets Mark Sanchez got their first dose of what fans alike hope to be a decade of classic duels to add to their already storied history. Bob Griese had Joe Namath, of course, who could forget the shootouts between Dan Marino and Ken O’Brien and even Jay Fiedler and Vinny Testaverde had a few gems including that jaw dropping 31-7 4th quarter deficit the Jets overcame on Monday night in 2000. God that one still stings! Oh yeah Jets fans, you like that one? How about a big bowl of fake spike. Huh? How’d that one feel?

There’s no doubt this matchup has grown into one of the most exciting rivalries in football, where the Jets hold a slight edge in the all-time series at 46-40-1, and they didn’t disappoint Monday night in yet another classic fireworks show that resulted in a 31-27 Dolphins victory on a gutsy direct snap play call to Ronnie Brown out of the Wildcat formation with :06 left where he took it in for the 2 yard game winning touchdown.

The rookie quarterbacks each played well but Henne was nearly perfect statistically and even more impressive in his demeanor, leadership, confidence and poise. The 4-year starter out of Michigan was stellar in only his 2nd career start going 20-26 for 241 yards with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions for a whopping 130.4 rating. He led three touchdown drives of 12 plays or more, which is impressive enough for anyone let alone in your 2nd career start against a first place team. Sanchez also played well going 12-24 for 172 yards and 1 touchdown for an 87.5 rating but in Henne-Sanchez I the night belonged to the Phins quarterback. Despite all the accolades towards Jets Head Coach and defensive guru, Rex Ryan, and their aggressive exotic blitzing scheme Henne thrived even going 7-7 for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns using the play action pass. Running the Wildcat effectively 16 times was obviously a huge reason why. As a team the Dolphins amassed 413 total yards with 151 coming on the ground with Brown collecting 74 yards on 21 caries and running mate Ricky Williams rushing 11 times for 68 yards and also snatched 3 passes for 70 yards including a 59 yard screen pass that he could have scored on had he not gassed. The Dolphins gouged the Jets run defense and Henne picked apart the blitzing scheme. The Dolphins top ranked defense against the run wasn’t exactly a brick wall themselves allowing Leon Washington to carve them for 4.4 yards per carry on only 10 carries thankfully, since each one had the feeling that he could take it to the house. He looked great and it didn’t look like the Dolphins figured out how to corral him. Note to self moving forward: Must work on defending explosive and elusive runners.

Heading into the game the Dolphins had other obvious areas that needed improvement and issues that needed to be addressed and they were successful in many areas but clearly left room for improvement in others such as penalties and pass coverage. Miami desperately needed Ted Ginn to step up and they needed to find ways to make big plays offensively. They were able to do both and they did them on the same play as Ginn blew past three Jets defenders and caught a perfectly thrown Henne bomb for a huge 53-yard touchdown. It was only one play but it was huge for the Dolphins, it was huge for Henne and it was huge for Ginn who has been thrown under the bus lately by fans and the media, and I am no exception, for not emerging as the star he was expected to be. That play alone may have done wonders for Ginn’s own confidence, Henne’s confidence in him, Tony Sporano’s confidence in them both and Dolfans confidence in the Miami Dolphins chances to defend their AFC East crown.

In all honesty, and Miami most definitely deserved and earned the victory but they shot themselves in the foot so many times that had they lost they could only blame themselves in a season already filled with too many of those losses. Two faked punts that resulted in first downs and eventual points, 8 penalties for 112 yards and 4 of which were huge pass interference calls and then there was that nauseating 3rd and 22 that was converted by a magnificent pitch and catch from Sanchez to newly acquired Jets WR Braylon Edwards. Not that it mattered but there was another defensive holding on that play had Edwards not hauled it in. These mistakes nearly cost Miami the game but the fact that they were able to overcome them and win a tight battle that went down to the wire speaks volumes to this teams resolve.

The win puts Henne 1-0 over Sanchez and the Dolphins 2-0 in the division and 2-3 overall and back in contention with the Patriots and Jets who are each one game up. All of the sudden the once 0-3 Dolphins are only one game back with 11 games to play including 4 division games and they have yet to play New England. The road won’t be easy starting with Drew Brees and company coming to town after next week’s bye.

In another “Just Saying” moment that has been a longtime signature of mine I would like to add that with his 37, the all time king of the 4th quarter come from behind victory, Dan Marino, is still firmly 36 ahead of Chad Henne.

Dolphins Host Heated Rival Jets on MNF

By Ronn Burner • on October 6, 2009

(3-1) new york jets @ (1-3) Miami Dolphins +1.5

In the first of many head to head battles between young quarterbacks Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez in one of the fiercest rivalries in football collide for the first of their two meetings Monday night in LandShark Stadium with more than just one win in the win column at stake. The Dolphins find themselves in what amounts to a must-win game at 1-3 with their next four games against the nyj twice, the Saints and the Patriots on the horizon. Not much room for error after the dug themselves into that hole. The Dolphins will look to continue stuffing the run, forcing turnovers combined with running and protecting the ball while the jets will attack the Phins feverishly with every kind of blitz possible hoping to force mistakes to help out rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL:
The jets are loaded with talent defensively with three former Pro Bowlers in the front seven with nose tackle Kris Jenkins, defensive end Shaun Ellis and linebacker Bart Scott. Their secondary is just as solid with All Pro corner Darrelle Revis and former Pro Bowler Kerry Rhodes at safety. According to ESPN the jets blitz 62 percent of the time compared to the league average of just over 35 percent yet shockingly they have only 4 sacks on the year to show for it. They are still creating a disturbance despite that meager total and the Dolphins allowed Chad Henne to get sacked 6 times last week to the leagues 28th ranked defense. Clearly Tony Sparano is fully aware of the importance of protecting Henne and it’s safe to assume that extra time will be spent with the backs and o-line in pass protection as well as play calling that will use the jets own aggressiveness against them exactly the way Don Shula and Dan Marino attacked the Buddy Ryan blitz happy Chicago Bears in that classic Monday Nighter in 1985 where the Dolphins massacred the 12-0 Bears 38-24 handing them the only loss that season. Marino made the blitzing Bears pay by quick hitting passes accumulating over 300 yards passing in the first half alone. Ironically, the jets Head Coach Rex Ryan, is Buddy’s son. Much like that dominant Bears defense this jets team has equally impressive statistics. They didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until the third game of the season against the Titans and last week they only gave up 10 points to Drew Brees and the NFL’s top scoring offense, which means Miami has their work cut out for them as points will be at a premium and must counter the jets defense with their #1 ranked ground game averaging 183.5 yards per game. It goes without saying but the Dolphins cannot turn the ball over or help out the jets with drive killing penalties that put them in unfavorable down and distance situations.

WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL:
The Dolphins run defense is ranked 3rd in the and the jets rushing offense isn’t really all that potent, however, Leon Washington is always dangerous and the jets love getting him touches through the air where Miami struggles in coverage from the line backers and safeties although last week against the Bills they dominated forcing 6 sacks and 3 interceptions collectively only allowing 10 points. The Bills aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut to speak of but considering the jets mounted nothing offensively against New Orleans and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez came back to earth throwing three interceptions, which is very encouraging considering the Saints are hardly an intimidating defensive unit. Platooning rookie corners Vontae Davis and Sean Smith have played as well as could be asked on one side with the usual reliable Will Allen giving opposing receivers fits on the other side. Safeties Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell played their best game of the year against the Bills so if they can play at that level again the jets may have difficulty finding points.

KEY MATCHUP:
Dolphins Offensive Line Vs. jets Front Seven
If the Dolphins can’t pick up the jets blitz they will struggle to move the ball and it’s hard to score if you can’t move the ball. The Dolphins will look to slow that pass rush down through the run with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams trying to avoid obvious passing situations. Easier said than done.

FEARLESS PREDICTION:
I suspect a battle for field position with both offenses playing very conservatively as to avoid the big mistake. The team the makes the least amount of mistakes in terms of turnovers, big plays and penalties will likely be victorious. That’s hardly a profound statement but I can’t see either team playing well from behind.

Dolphins 17-13

Burner’s Fearless Round-up Vol. 4

By Ronn Burner • on October 5, 2009

I was feeling purty good about this week too. Ouch. Just can’t seem to get over that .500 hump. There’s always next week.

NY Giants (3-0) @ Kansas City (0-3) +9.5
The Chiefs might be the worst team in the league while the Giants might be the best. This is the 2nd straight road game for the banged up Giants, which is really a tough task but I just tend to think they are so much better that it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs challenging here.
Giants 23-13

GIANTS 27-16

Same ole same ole Giants. Same ole same old Chiefs. Game was nowhere near as close as the score.

Baltimore (3-0) @ New England (2-1) -1.5
The numbers make this game look like an obvious Ravens win but there’s just something terrifying betting against a Tom Brady, Bill Belichek wounded animal. Some things just don’t make sense so despite all the obvious Ravens advantages I reluctantly love the Patriots here. Oxymoron, maybe, Tom Brady, yes.
Patriots 34-30

PATRIOTS 27-21

Tom Brady and the Patriots are getting closer and closer to clicking offensively, which strikes fear into the rest of the league. The Ravens are good and something tells me these two will meet again in January.

*Cincinnati (2-1) @ Cleveland (0-3) +5.5
The Bengals are for real, the Brown are a joke with one of the worst offenses in recent memory. Not only do I think Cinci wins but I will be shocked if it’s even close, in fact, it’s my favorite bet of the week, which means Cleveland will probably clobber them.
Bengals 30-13

BENGALS 23-20

Derek Anderson kept this game a lot closer than expected but it wasn’t enough as the Bengals move to 3-1 and atop the AFC Central. Cinci needs to find their offensive groove if they hope to stay there though.

Seattle (1-2) @ Indianapolis (3-0) -8.5
The Colts offense is remarkable as long as #11 is under center and they always seem to play that much better on their home turf while the Seahawks are notoriously bad on the road and will be playing again without their leader Matt Hasselback. Tough combination.
Colts 31-20

COLTS 34-17

Peyton Manning and the Colts are 4-0 yet again and getting better every week. Seattle never had a chance.

Detroit (1-2) @ Chicago (2-1) -10.5
The Lions are hot right now and will go to Soldier Field feeling great about themselves. Jay Cutler has been playing better than you think and should be able to outscore the Lions with the banged up Bears defense playing better than expected without Brian Urlacher.
Bears 23-13

BEARS 48-24

The Lions hung in for the better part of 3 quarters at 21-21 before the Bears and Jay Cutler exploded to a whopping 48-24 route. The Lions are getting better and the Bears are starting to gel offensively.

*Tampa Bay (0-3) @ Washington (1-2) -6.5
The Bucs are horrible offensively and will be starting Josh Johnson at QB, um, who? Not to mention the fact they’re asking him to go on the road to play a team that just got beat by the Detroit Lions ending that 19 game losing streak. No thank you.
Redskins 27-13

REDSKINS 16-13

I think it’s safe now to throw the Redskins into the same category as the Bucs, Lions, Raiders, Rams and Browns, which is not the category you want to be in. Just a putrid game and the fact the Redskins went to the wire with the Bucs at home a week after getting beat by Detroit tells you how bad the Redskins really are.

Oakland (1-2) @ Houston (1-2) -9.5
I hate everything about this pick. The Raiders are a dumpster fire with Jamarcus Russell playing horribly but they do have a pretty good offensive line with really good backs when they hold onto the ball and a decent defense. I could see Houston winning 54-6 but I’m picking the Raiders to cover because I’m stupid.
Texans 26-17

TEXANS 29-6

Holy smokes are the Raider horrible. Wow. Even when you know this fact it is still mind boggling how bad they are. Houston completely stuffed the Raiders running game after letting each of their previous 3 opponents run right through them.

Tennessee (0-3) @ Jacksonville (1-2) +2.5
It’s hard to imagine the Titans going 0-4 but they are clearly not the Titans we have grown accustomed to despite losing very hard fought and close games. Shockingly it’s the Titan defense that has been the letdown. They will bounce back and even though the Jags are coming off a win they have not played well.
Titans 27-20

TITANS 37-17

It appears the 0-4 Titans have quit on Head Coach Jeff Fisher after allowing the struggling Jags to blow them off the field. Hard to believe but hard to argue.

Buffalo (1-2) @ Miami (0-3) +2.5
The Chad Henne era begins. Miami has played well against the run and been gouged through the air while the Bills have struggled in their passing game with Trent Edwards but their ground game has been great. Something has to give and I’m a Dolphins fan so there!
Dolphins 27-16

DOLPHINS 38-10

The Phins break into the win column in impressive fashion by dominating the Bills on both sides of the ball. Believe it or not the Dolphins boast the #3 ranked rushing offense and are also ranked #3 against the run. Two numbers that usually results in lots of wins. Hmmm…

NY Jets (3-0) @ New Orleans (3-0) -6.5
A battle of two undefeated teams. Mark Sanchez and the nyj have to be one of the biggest surprises of the season thus far and no rookie QB has ever even started 3-0 let alone 4-0 so the odds are already in the Saints favor. Aside from that Drew Brees has this team rolling and Pierre Thomas hase brought to life their running game making them even more frightening.
Saints 27-17

SAINTS 24-10

Mark Sanchez, Earth. Earth, Mark Sanchez. Three picks by the rookie was more than enough for Drew Brees and the Saints offense against the blitz happy nyj defensive scheme.

*St. Louis (0-3) @ San Francisco (2-1) -9.5
The Rams are a disaster offensively and must play without Marc Bulger and Laurent Robinson against the 49ers defense that held Adrian Peterson to 80 yards rushing. The Niners will be without Frank Gore but Glen Coffee has proven to be more than capable.
49ers 28-10

49ers 35-0

49ers defense outscored both their own offense and the entire Rams team after scoring 3 touchdowns. The Rams are a lock for the 1st pick in next April’s draft while the 49ers are quietly one of the best teams in the NFL over the past 11 games dating to last year with an impressive 8-3 record.

Dallas (2-1) @ Denver (3-0) +3.5
The Broncos have looked great defensively and they are 3-0 but I firmly believe it’s all smoke and mirrors while the Cowboys have played so inconsistently offensively but are very close to being excellent. Marion Barber and Felix Jones might both be out but even then I can’t see this Broncos team sitting at 4-0.
Cowboys 24-20

COWBOYS 17-10

I still think the Broncos are the worst 4-0 team in the history of the NFL after the Cowboys handed them this game to go along with their fluky week 1 win over Cinci. That said the Broncos are playing excellent on defense and Kyle Orton is making the Jay Cutler debacle seem like a blessing. As for the Cowboys, Tony Romo continues to struggle.

San Diego (2-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-2) -6.5
Pittsburgh is a tough place to play and when the west coast goes east it usually spells doom but I think the Chargers have enough offensively to keep it close, especially with the Steelers missing their defensive leader Troy Polamalu.
Steelers 23-17

STEELERS 38-28

The Steelers are tough at home but they dismantled the enigmatic Chargers and if it wasn’t for a late surge by Phillip Rivers and Co. this could have easily been a 20+ point blow out. That’s saying something considering the Chargers think they are Super Bowl worthy. Looks like the defending Champs aren’t willing to relinquish their crown just yet.

Monday, October 05
Green Bay (2-1) @ Minnesota (3-0) -3.5
And so it begins… the Brett Favre vs. Green Bay Packers era. Favre tends to play out of body in these type of games and I have a hunch the Vikings at home will be so physical that AP dominates late in the game.
Vikings 24-17

This week ATS: 6-7

Season to Date ATS: 29-32

This week Best Bets: 1-2

Season to Date Best Bets: 3-9