Burner’s Fearless Round-up Vol. 4

By Ronn Burner • on October 5, 2009

I was feeling purty good about this week too. Ouch. Just can’t seem to get over that .500 hump. There’s always next week.

NY Giants (3-0) @ Kansas City (0-3) +9.5
The Chiefs might be the worst team in the league while the Giants might be the best. This is the 2nd straight road game for the banged up Giants, which is really a tough task but I just tend to think they are so much better that it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs challenging here.
Giants 23-13

GIANTS 27-16

Same ole same ole Giants. Same ole same old Chiefs. Game was nowhere near as close as the score.

Baltimore (3-0) @ New England (2-1) -1.5
The numbers make this game look like an obvious Ravens win but there’s just something terrifying betting against a Tom Brady, Bill Belichek wounded animal. Some things just don’t make sense so despite all the obvious Ravens advantages I reluctantly love the Patriots here. Oxymoron, maybe, Tom Brady, yes.
Patriots 34-30

PATRIOTS 27-21

Tom Brady and the Patriots are getting closer and closer to clicking offensively, which strikes fear into the rest of the league. The Ravens are good and something tells me these two will meet again in January.

*Cincinnati (2-1) @ Cleveland (0-3) +5.5
The Bengals are for real, the Brown are a joke with one of the worst offenses in recent memory. Not only do I think Cinci wins but I will be shocked if it’s even close, in fact, it’s my favorite bet of the week, which means Cleveland will probably clobber them.
Bengals 30-13

BENGALS 23-20

Derek Anderson kept this game a lot closer than expected but it wasn’t enough as the Bengals move to 3-1 and atop the AFC Central. Cinci needs to find their offensive groove if they hope to stay there though.

Seattle (1-2) @ Indianapolis (3-0) -8.5
The Colts offense is remarkable as long as #11 is under center and they always seem to play that much better on their home turf while the Seahawks are notoriously bad on the road and will be playing again without their leader Matt Hasselback. Tough combination.
Colts 31-20

COLTS 34-17

Peyton Manning and the Colts are 4-0 yet again and getting better every week. Seattle never had a chance.

Detroit (1-2) @ Chicago (2-1) -10.5
The Lions are hot right now and will go to Soldier Field feeling great about themselves. Jay Cutler has been playing better than you think and should be able to outscore the Lions with the banged up Bears defense playing better than expected without Brian Urlacher.
Bears 23-13

BEARS 48-24

The Lions hung in for the better part of 3 quarters at 21-21 before the Bears and Jay Cutler exploded to a whopping 48-24 route. The Lions are getting better and the Bears are starting to gel offensively.

*Tampa Bay (0-3) @ Washington (1-2) -6.5
The Bucs are horrible offensively and will be starting Josh Johnson at QB, um, who? Not to mention the fact they’re asking him to go on the road to play a team that just got beat by the Detroit Lions ending that 19 game losing streak. No thank you.
Redskins 27-13

REDSKINS 16-13

I think it’s safe now to throw the Redskins into the same category as the Bucs, Lions, Raiders, Rams and Browns, which is not the category you want to be in. Just a putrid game and the fact the Redskins went to the wire with the Bucs at home a week after getting beat by Detroit tells you how bad the Redskins really are.

Oakland (1-2) @ Houston (1-2) -9.5
I hate everything about this pick. The Raiders are a dumpster fire with Jamarcus Russell playing horribly but they do have a pretty good offensive line with really good backs when they hold onto the ball and a decent defense. I could see Houston winning 54-6 but I’m picking the Raiders to cover because I’m stupid.
Texans 26-17

TEXANS 29-6

Holy smokes are the Raider horrible. Wow. Even when you know this fact it is still mind boggling how bad they are. Houston completely stuffed the Raiders running game after letting each of their previous 3 opponents run right through them.

Tennessee (0-3) @ Jacksonville (1-2) +2.5
It’s hard to imagine the Titans going 0-4 but they are clearly not the Titans we have grown accustomed to despite losing very hard fought and close games. Shockingly it’s the Titan defense that has been the letdown. They will bounce back and even though the Jags are coming off a win they have not played well.
Titans 27-20

TITANS 37-17

It appears the 0-4 Titans have quit on Head Coach Jeff Fisher after allowing the struggling Jags to blow them off the field. Hard to believe but hard to argue.

Buffalo (1-2) @ Miami (0-3) +2.5
The Chad Henne era begins. Miami has played well against the run and been gouged through the air while the Bills have struggled in their passing game with Trent Edwards but their ground game has been great. Something has to give and I’m a Dolphins fan so there!
Dolphins 27-16

DOLPHINS 38-10

The Phins break into the win column in impressive fashion by dominating the Bills on both sides of the ball. Believe it or not the Dolphins boast the #3 ranked rushing offense and are also ranked #3 against the run. Two numbers that usually results in lots of wins. Hmmm…

NY Jets (3-0) @ New Orleans (3-0) -6.5
A battle of two undefeated teams. Mark Sanchez and the nyj have to be one of the biggest surprises of the season thus far and no rookie QB has ever even started 3-0 let alone 4-0 so the odds are already in the Saints favor. Aside from that Drew Brees has this team rolling and Pierre Thomas hase brought to life their running game making them even more frightening.
Saints 27-17

SAINTS 24-10

Mark Sanchez, Earth. Earth, Mark Sanchez. Three picks by the rookie was more than enough for Drew Brees and the Saints offense against the blitz happy nyj defensive scheme.

*St. Louis (0-3) @ San Francisco (2-1) -9.5
The Rams are a disaster offensively and must play without Marc Bulger and Laurent Robinson against the 49ers defense that held Adrian Peterson to 80 yards rushing. The Niners will be without Frank Gore but Glen Coffee has proven to be more than capable.
49ers 28-10

49ers 35-0

49ers defense outscored both their own offense and the entire Rams team after scoring 3 touchdowns. The Rams are a lock for the 1st pick in next April’s draft while the 49ers are quietly one of the best teams in the NFL over the past 11 games dating to last year with an impressive 8-3 record.

Dallas (2-1) @ Denver (3-0) +3.5
The Broncos have looked great defensively and they are 3-0 but I firmly believe it’s all smoke and mirrors while the Cowboys have played so inconsistently offensively but are very close to being excellent. Marion Barber and Felix Jones might both be out but even then I can’t see this Broncos team sitting at 4-0.
Cowboys 24-20

COWBOYS 17-10

I still think the Broncos are the worst 4-0 team in the history of the NFL after the Cowboys handed them this game to go along with their fluky week 1 win over Cinci. That said the Broncos are playing excellent on defense and Kyle Orton is making the Jay Cutler debacle seem like a blessing. As for the Cowboys, Tony Romo continues to struggle.

San Diego (2-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-2) -6.5
Pittsburgh is a tough place to play and when the west coast goes east it usually spells doom but I think the Chargers have enough offensively to keep it close, especially with the Steelers missing their defensive leader Troy Polamalu.
Steelers 23-17

STEELERS 38-28

The Steelers are tough at home but they dismantled the enigmatic Chargers and if it wasn’t for a late surge by Phillip Rivers and Co. this could have easily been a 20+ point blow out. That’s saying something considering the Chargers think they are Super Bowl worthy. Looks like the defending Champs aren’t willing to relinquish their crown just yet.

Monday, October 05
Green Bay (2-1) @ Minnesota (3-0) -3.5
And so it begins… the Brett Favre vs. Green Bay Packers era. Favre tends to play out of body in these type of games and I have a hunch the Vikings at home will be so physical that AP dominates late in the game.
Vikings 24-17

This week ATS: 6-7

Season to Date ATS: 29-32

This week Best Bets: 1-2

Season to Date Best Bets: 3-9

Dolphins Thrash Bills 38-10

By Ronn Burner • on October 5, 2009

The Miami Dolphins opened division play with a very decisive 38-10 statement win over the Buffalo Bills in an odd 4:PM EST matchup. The Dolphins move to 1-3 on the season but an important 1-0 in the AFC East while the Bills dropped to 0-2 in the division and tied even with Miami at 1-3 on the season.

Chad Henne went 14-22 for 115 yards, no interceptions and a touchdown pass to Ohio State rookie wide receiver, Brian Hartline. Henne to Hartline may sound weird now but it’s a connection we would love to ring in our ears just as commonly as Marino to Clayton or Marino to Duper did. Henne wasn’t spectacular in his first ever NFL start but he did play well and most importantly he didn’t make mistakes. There were obvious things he’ll need to improve on such as not taking 6 sacks and not fumbling when he does, he fumbled twice but Miami recovered them both. It’s a good day to be a Dolphins fan knowing that as each day passes Henne is getting better and it’s an excellent start to what hopes to be a long career as the Miami Dolphins franchise quarterback.

Henne was helped out tremendously by the running game which continues to punish opposing teams by amassing 250 yards at a 5.6 yards per attempt led by Ronnie Brown with 115 yards and Ricky Williams added 85 of his own. Miami found success on the ground against a Bills front that stacked 8 in the box making these already gaudy number all the more impressive. The Dolphins find themselves ranked as the #3 rush offense in the league and are making a strong case for being the best running team in football. The same cannot be said for the passing game unfortunately as our receivers have still yet to make any sort of an impact play and Ted Ginn has become a waste of a roster spot adding his stellar 1 catch 4 yard performance to a career filled with eye popping statistical games like this. Hartline, Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo are clearly the go-to guys in the offense snatching 9 passes for 76 yards combined and it’s starting to get concerning that Anthony Fasano is a non issue with his 1 reception for 7 yards. Moving forward Miami will have to get more production from the tight ends as well as find a way to make a big play downfield. It’s a broken record at this point.

Defensively the Dolphins were a force to be reckoned with and it’s exciting to see that the rookies were a huge reason for the dominant overall effort. Rookie corner Vontae Davis had his first career interception and touchdown on the same play. Canadian Football League two-time Defensive player of the Year, Cameron Wake, showed why he was so highly sought after by delivering a monster game that included 3 sacks, 2 hurries and a forced fumble to go with his 6 tackles. As a unit the Dolphins forced 3 interceptions and had 6 sacks terrorizing Trent Edwards all afternoon and spoiled Marshawn Lynch’s return from suspension for Substance Abuse with 8 carries for 4 yards. That is impressive in and of itself not to mention that the entire Bills were only able to gain 46 total yards on the ground on 17 carries, an average of a paltry 2.7 yards per carry.

It’s only one win and the Dolphins have a long way to go to get back into the playoff picture but winning can do wonderful things to a teams confidence and when good things start to happen it becomes contagious and is not out of the realm of possibilities to turn into a winning streak and with our upcoming schedule, we’re going to need it.

Chad Henne get First NFL Start at Home Against Buffalo

By Ronn Burner • on October 2, 2009

(1-2) Buffalo Bills at (0-3) Miami Dolphins +2.5

The all important division play begins for Miami who is in desperate need of a win, while Buffalo really hasn’t seemed to recover from the heart breaking loss in the opener to the Patriots. As it stands now both teams are chasing the nyj and New England Patriots within the division making this somewhat stale appearing game rather critical for one another. To be honest, not one person outside of those that are fans of these teams care one bit about this dud and I don’t blame them.

WHEN MIAMI HAS THE BALL:
There’s a new sheriff in town and his name is Chad Henne. I’d be lying if I told you I didn’t think Miami would be very conservative but that said I also expect a few shots deep to Ted Ginn serving two extremely important points 1.) the opportunity for a big play that Miami and especially Ginn so desperately needs and 2.) to open up the middle of the field to hopefully free up space in the running game and for underneath routes to Davone Bess, Brian Hartline, Greg Camarillo and Anthony Fasano as well as swings, dumps and screens to Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Miami should be able to run the ball on Buffalo as it is but obviously they must avoid penalties and turnovers to keep Henne in a favorable situation and try to avoid the must throw downs in 3rd and long.

WHEN BUFFALO HAS THE BALL:
Marshawn Lynch is back from a 3 game suspension for performance enhancing drugs and will split carries with the impressive Fred Jackson. Miami has played the run very well thus far but the passing lanes have been wide open. Tight Ends have shredded Miami so far this year and Buffalo will be looking to attack the Safeties, Gibril Wilson in particular who has struggled big time the first 3 weeks. Bills WR Terrell Owens is coming off his first game without a catch in 185 games and you can be sure that Buffalo will be throwing the rock his way early and often if for no other reason than to avoid a huge blow up. Trent Edwards has been less than expected but he does have weapons with T.O. and Lee Evans and more than capable backs at his disposal so he is still dangerous enough to outscore the Phins erratic offense.

KEY MATCH UP:
Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell Vs. Anybody!
Heading into the season the Safeties were thought to be one of our units of least concern, which has turned out to be our most glaring weakness thus far. Both Wilson and Bell have been caught out of position and exploited by opposing TE’s in paticular as well as a tendency to not provide over the top help to our corners allowing huge plays to Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon and every TE they’ve faced yet. And maybe more troubling than that is the number of missed tackles each has accumulated, Wilson specifically. Another poor performance and I would not be shocked in the least to see Wilson benched. It’s been that bad.

FEARLESS PREDICTION:
Make no mistake about it, 0-3 or not this game matters to the Dolphins in a big way. It’s the first of 6 must-win division games and essentially a new beginning figuratively and literally with Chad Henne and the clean slate of being 0-0 within the division. Miami has shown glimpses of excellent play offensively and based on the self induced streak of bad luck it only takes a big positive to get them back to believing and the opportunity to go 1-0 in the division will have them firing on all cylinders in the intensity department anyway. One win will go a long way towards the rest of the season and the psyche of Henne.

Dolphins 27-16

The Legend, er, Hype of Chad Henne

By Ronn Burner • on October 1, 2009

The Legend hype of Chad Henne and that big arm of his. Chad Henne has a big arm. Yes, we heard. It is mind boggling to me that every publication covering this story can’t stop talking about that “big arm” of Chad Henne’s, many of which are even including it in the headline. Palm Beach Post Staff Writer, Edgar Thompson, wrote the column “Chad Henne faces big challenges, but he’ll give the Miami Dolphins a big arm” and “Chad Henne has strong arm but shouldn’t be given free rein” by Ethan J. Skolnick of the Sun Sentinel Times. This just in: So did Ryan Leaf. So did Jeff George. I think we all know how those stories ended. Chad Henne has a big arm holds about as much water as Ted Ginn sure is fast. See where I’m going with this? Not that either of those two talented writers that I frequently read are making any grandiose claims but the point being that since the days of Dan Marino Dolfans have been praying to the football gods for the next great quarterback to lead us to the promised land. The bigger our inflated expectations become, the bigger the unfair burden on Henne becomes.

Chad Pennington is gone for the season with a separated shoulder to his already twice surgically repaired throwing shoulder and not only is his future with the Dolphins in jeopardy but his entire career hangs in the balance. As unfortunate as this news is, life in the NFL must go on. Now his protégé is thrown into the spotlight trying to salvage the season after a tough 0-3 start. Make no mistake about it, Miami has high hopes for Henne. The kingdom was going to be his soon enough, however, soon enough wasn’t supposed to be until late this year when Miami had played themselves out of the playoff picture or next season after having 2 solid years of absorbing every detail possible from Pennington. His time is here, however premature it may or may not be. With that, we as fans have to be prepared for the inevitable growing pains that are certain to come and not expect too much from him beyond what you would expect from any young quarterback. He will make mistakes, he will throw interceptions, he will need to learn to read and react to blitzes, stunts, coverages and every other tricky nuance that defensive coordinators are licking their chops to throw at him, he will hold the ball too long, he will get rid of it too early, he will have happy feet, he will telegraph passes and he will probably even line up under guard at some point but as long as he learns from each mistake and continues to grow from one day to the next, as long as he displays poise and gets back up after taking a sack and brushes himself off unphased and walks back into the huddle calling the next play confidently and proving to his teammates that he has fire in his eyes to lead them and do everything in his power to be the best quarterback in this league he can be then that’s all we can ask for. Everything else that we “hope” he becomes will come in due time but these stages are the most crucial of his young career and if we believe in hi and support him he very well meet our lofty expectations. It is important that we not use that exciting year in 1983 when Marino was unveiled as the barometer in which to judge Henne. As far as I’m concerned that’s an unfair comparison for any quarterback to ever walk the planet. There is only one Dan Marino.

Henne will be making his first NFL start Sunday at home versus the Buffalo Bills. Hey! Didn’t Dan Marino make his first NFL start at home versus the Buffalo Bills? Just saying. Then again, Ted Ginn sure is fast.

Dolphins lose more than game in SD

By Ronn Burner • on September 30, 2009

Miami Dolphins 13

San Diego Chargers 23

What a difference a year makes. Last season the Dolphins were coming off of a 1-15 season with minimal expectations yet played a physical, mistake-free and very efficient brand of football resulting in an 11-5 Division Championship season matching the greatest single season turnaround in NFL history. Coming into this year, despite boasting the leagues toughest schedule, expectations were high but what we’ve seen thus far is vastly different than that of last year and that was blatantly obvious against the San Diego Chargers. Miami just can’t seem to stop shooting themselves in the foot. Just when they look like they are here to stay and able to compete with anyone as demonstrated with a 17 play, 94 yard drive eating nine and a half minutes off the clock they do something to completely implode like Ronnie Brown fumbling on that 17th play before there was even contact at the 1 yard line through the back of the end zone for a touchback. They never recovered; in fact, it only got worse from there.

There are glaring holes in this Dolphins squad that keeps being highlighted as each week passes. Most notably is the play of our safeties, Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell, who haven’t proven they can cover their mouths when they sneeze let alone All Pro’s like Tony Gonzales, Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates who have completely gouged the Phins secondary. Phillip Rivers threw for over 300 yards and Vincent Jackson had 120 yards receiving. The Dolphins run defense has been excellent actually and they proved that yet again by holding the dangerous Darren Sproles to only 41 yards on 18 carries but it’s a moot point when the secondary has been falling asleep allowing the Chargers to have 7 passing plays over 25 yards.

Offensively, Miami has proven that they cannot play without the lead and even when they do move the ball and make something positive happen they do something stupid to kill the drive like a penalty or turnover, something they did not do last season. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams continue to punish defenders with their running style and they produced great numbers, albeit many came from the Wildcat, accumulating 130 yards on 26 carries. Miami would take that every week and feel good about their chances of winning the game but that has not been the case. In fact, Miami has done very well in run defense, run offense, time of possession, first downs and passing efficiency which are normally good indicators of success yet the Phins find themselves 0-3 because they have struggled wit pass defense, red zone offense, turnovers and 3rd down efficiency on both sides of the ball, which are clearly good indicators that you won’t be successful. Miami’s passing game has struggled with Davone Bess being the only receiver worth mentioning with his solid play in the middle ala Wes Welker in New England. Ted Ginn continues to struggle this time going without a catch entirely and dropping two consecutive low passes when Miami was attempting to mount a rally. Tight End Anthony Fasano has been a non-factor for some unknown reason this year after being one of the focal points last year. Like I said, what a difference a year makes.

To add insult to injury, on the first possession of the second half Chad Pennington was hit legally by LB Kevin Burnett after attempting a 3rd down pass and fell to the ground dislocating his already twice repaired throwing shoulder. It was later determined that the injury is season ending and truly unfortunate for CP10 as his value to the Dolphins cannot be quantified in numbers. Heir apparent Chad Henne stepped in and immediately showed why he didn’t win the job outright by displaying happy feet, showing nervous jitters and telegraphing his throws, one of which was picked and returned for 6 by CB Eric Weddle. In defense of Henne, the entire Dolphins team seemed to lose its steam and confidence after Pennington left with the injury.

While the Dolphins look to have lost another season at 0-3 the San Diego Chargers have their sights set on a deep playoff run. Hopefully next year with a polished Chad Henne at the helm we will be able to make that claim. Here we are after 3 weeks and still in September and thoughts about “next” year are already creeping in. Not good.

Burner’s Fearless Roundup – Vol. 3

By Ronn Burner • on September 28, 2009

(*) Denotes Best Bets

Tennessee (0-2) @ nyj (2-0) -2.5
The Titans are in desperate need of a win and they are way too good of a team to start 0-3 while the Jets are bound to come back to earth sooner or later and what better time than following a huge emotional win over division foe New England.
*Titans 20-16

nyj 24-17

Holy crap Mark Sanchez. God I hate that he plays for “them”. “They” just happen to look like they are for real. That defense is just fun to watch which is painful to say. So much for desperation as the Titans fall again knowing full well that no team has ever made it to the Super Bowl starting 0-3 while only 3 teams have ever even made it to the postseason.

Jacksonville (0-2) @ Houston (1-1) -3.5
Houston found their groove offensively and the Jags have struggled in all areas especially defensively where the Cardinals lit them up last week. Matt Schaub will do the same this week.
*Texans 27-17

JAGUARS 31-24

Maurice Jones-Drew ran wild scoring 3 touchdowns including a 61 yarder giving the difficult to guage Jags their much needed 1st victory. Equally confusing Houston has looked great at times offensively while their defense just can’t seem to stop anyone. Costly turnovers held the Texans to 24 points including a late goalline fumble costing them a chance for OT.

NY Giants (2-0) @ Tampa Bay (0-2) +6.5
It’s the second consecutive road game on the heels of a short week duel with division rival Dallas. That’s tough and the Bucs will try to take advantage of that but in the end the Giants eek out the win.
Giants 24-20

GIANTS 24-0

The Giants took care of business by completely dominating the Bucs who didn’t obtain their first 1st down until late in the 3rd quarter. With Detroit finally winning Tampa Bay looks to be the front runner of earning the dubious distinction of being the leagues worst team although Oakland, St. Louis, Clevaland and Kansas City might have something to say about that.

Cleveland (0-2) @ Baltimore (2-0) -13.5
Baltimore looks amazing on both sides of the ball and I have no reason whatsoever for taking Cleveland to cover considering the Browns offense is dreadful but that many points just makes me think a back door touchdown will cover.
Ravens 27-17

RAVENS 34-3

Granted, Cleveland is terrible in all phases of the game but it’s really difficult to ignore the dominating fashion that the Ravens are playing on both sides of the ball. The real test will come in New England next week but you can bank on seeing Baltimore in the playoffs and likely with at least one home game and a BYE.

Washington (1-1) @ Detroit (0-2) +6.5
Could this be the week the Lions get out of the doldrums? Eventually they will win and they are clearly a much better team than last year and with the struggles of the Redskins offense this is a golden opportunity to get that elusive W.
Lions 23-20

LIONS 19-14

I am a genius! Ok, I admit it was hardly an earth shattering prediction but still. Mathew Stafford really looks like he has all the tools to be very successful and from top to bottom the Lions really are much improved and clearly heading in the right direction. As for the Redskins, they are clearly not.

Kansas City (0-2) @ Philadelphia (1-1) -10.5
If it were any other team than the Chiefs than I would call you crazy if you said that Kevin Kolb and a banged up Michael Westbrook and DeSean Jackson would blow a team out. I think they do. The Chiefs are not very good.
Eagles 24-13

EAGLES 34-14

Even without Michael Westbrook and Donovan McNabb the Eagles easily dismantled the lowly Chiefs. While the Eagles look poised to make yet another NFC Championship push the Chiefs look to be competing with Tampa Bay, Oakland, Cleveland and St. Louis for the #1 selection in next April’s NFL Draft.

Atlanta (2-0) @ New England (1-1) -4.5
I’m not convinced the Patriots are just average. I think once they iron out the kinks they will be very dangerous and put up a ton of points. The Falcons look great but Matt Ryan will have to face the crafty Bill Belichek defensive scheme.
Patriots 27-21

PATRIOTS 26-10

Anyone else get the feeling that the Patriots are still trying working things out? If so, look out because Atlanta is a very good team that Tom Brady and New England hammered while it still felt like the Patriots were “off” of their game. New England and Baltimore next week is must see tv!

Green Bay (1-1) @ St. Louis (0-2) +6.5
St. Louis could find some success on the ground but even then they are so outmatched that they will struggle to find points while the Packers should be able to score plenty with an angry Aaron Rodgers hoping to redeem last weeks embarrassing loss at Lambeau to the Bengals.
*Packers 31-10

PACKERS 36-17

Poor Steven Jackson. Now the Rams may have to play without quarterback Marc Bulger and #1 receiver Laurent Robinson who both went down with injuries. Aside from SJAX the Rams are not good on offense yet they somehow managed to score 17 points on the Packers defense. I would be a little concerned in Green Bay who was coiming off a home loss to the Bengals last week.

San Francisco (2-0) @ Minnesota (2-0) -6.5
The Vikings rarely blow people out and with each team looking to pound the ball it’s really anybody’s game that could be decided by an untimely turnover. Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore all day long.
Vikings 20-17

So much for the AP Frank Gore mathcup as Gore left and did not return after one carry injured his ankle. AP was held under 90 yards and had the game won until good ole #4 stole the limelight yet again with a last second laser to the back of the end zone to the normally inactive Greg Lewis who was only even in the game because Percy Harvin was so exhausted after running 7 consecutive go patterns. Welcome to the NFL kid. The 49ers got Favred. Plain and simple.

Chicago (1-1) @ Seattle (1-1) +1.5
Both teams are banged up but the Bears still have their offense in tact while the Seahawks will be without quarterback Matt Hasselback meaning Seneca Wallace gets the start. No way I can pick Seneca Wallace to beat the Bears.
Bears 27-13

Boy was Jim Mora pissed off that Olindo Mare missed two field goals. Assume Mare is on unemployment very soon. Truth is the Seahawks defense is really to blame not being able to stop Jay Cutler and the Bears offense when they needed to late. Penalties and missed kicks certainly didn’t help matters though.

New Orleans (2-0) @ Buffalo (1-1) +5.5
This one has all the makings of an old fashioned shootout. Drew Brees couldn’t be any hotter while Trent Edwards is holding his own and instilling confidence in the entire Bills organization. At some point the Saints have to play just average so I’m guessing it’s here.
Saints 31-27

SAINTS 27-7

T.O. was held without a reception for the first time in 12 years so it’s safe to assume we can expect a blowup in the very near future. This one was close well into the 3rd before the Saints offense found their groove and started moving the ball — on the ground! If that continues then the Saints become downright scary.

Pittsburgh (1-1) @ Cincinnati (1-1) +4.5
The Bengals broke into the win column in a big way by winning at Lambeau and this one against division and Super Bowl champ Pittsburgh would go a long way in proving to the rest of the league that the Bengals mean business. That’s enough to keep it close anyway.
Steelers 21-20

BENGALS 23-20

Don’t look now but the Cincinnati Bengals are for real and one fluky Broncos touchdown from a 3-0 start. Carson Palmer looked like the All Pro that he is on an impressive game winning drive in the closing seconds against the mighty Steelers defense albeit without star safety Troy Polamalu. The Steelers will be fine despite their 1-2 start and the Bengals are looking strong as playoff contenders.

Miami (0-2) @ San Diego (1-1) -6.5 The Dolphins are in desperate need of a win and a desperate team is a dangerous team. Miami played great last week against the Colts but let the win slip away so they will look to do many of the same things to try and keep Philip Rivers and the high-powered Charger offense sidelined.

Dolphins 31-23

CHARGERS 23-13

Great googly moogly.

Denver (2-0) @ Oakland (1-1) -0.5
Both these teams appear better than expected actually making this game remotely interesting. The Broncos look great and defense and the Raiders look horrible on offense so it stands to reason Denver would be the clear favorite yet Oakland is favored at home. Hmmm..
Raiders 24-21

BRONCOS 23-3

The Broncos are surprisingly 3-0 and they have looked good defensively and running the ball thus far but I wouldn’t get too carried away as they beat up on Cleveland and Oakland and they had nothing offensively until that Brandon Stokely miracle last second touchdown took out the Bengals in week 1. Oakland is heading for yet again another top 5 draft pick for the umteenth straight year.

Indianapolis (2-0) @ Arizona (1-1) -1.5
It doesn’t take a genius prognosticator to tell you that the ball will be thrown a lot in this one. Kurt Warner found his groove last week and Peyton Manning never loses his. This one might be going down to which team has the ball last but I actually think Arizona rolls.
Cardinals 27-17

COLTS 31-10

Peyton Manning could lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to an 8-8 record and I’m beggining to think he could drive and score with 10 girl scouts. What else can you say other than the Colts are the Colts and will be a tough win for anyone. The Cardinals are wildly inconsistent at best. The fact that this offense has played so poorly in 2 out of 3 games is mind boggling and must have Cardinals fans worrying.

Monday, September 28
Carolina (0-2) @ Dallas (1-1) -9.5
The Panthers are looking to get in the win column by running DeAngelo Williams and James Stewart as much as possible which won’t be easy as Dallas is home for the second consecutive week and coming off a tough loss to the Giants. Tony Romo will look to silence the naysayers.
Cowboys 31-23

COWBOYS 21-7

The Cowboys potentially potent offense has yet to click on all cylinders which was evident after Carolina held them at the 1 yard line twice forcing field goals. It now looks like the Cowboys may be without both Marion Barber and the electrifying Felix Jones who tweaked an ankle Monday night. The Panthers start out 0-3 after winning the division last season and can’t be real happy with how they’ve started this year.

This Week ATS: 7-9

Season to Date ATS: 23-25

Last Week Best Bets: 1-2

Season to Date Best Bets: 2-7

Dear Ted Ginn,

By Ronn Burner • on September 28, 2009

You are dead to me. I’ve never despised a Dolphins player more in my 30 years as a die hard Dolfan than I do you. Admittedly this is a harsh statement but I just can’t help myself. I’m so sorry, I want to love you and admire you and respect your game but you just don’t give me any reason to. Maybe I despise you because I defended you insufferably until we could see you in your 3rd year, which I feel is the least we could do for a wide receiver and especially in your case considering you came into the league as a raw talent and for a 1-15 team going through growing pains of their own. Maybe I loathe you because I believed in you and you broke my heart by letting me down week in and week out after I kept telling people that you were very close to your star emerging. In fact, I would argue that you actually got worse which defies logic. Now I’m almost worried about you because as far as I’m concerned your career is in jeopardy because I think you’ve now become a head case in regards to your own confidence in the ability to make a big play, your confidence in running the correct routes effectively that the defense is giving you in addition to your limited skill set. Let’s face it, Teddy; you’re nothing more than a padded track star. You’re not a football player. I don’t want to hear one more excuse, period. I’m a very knowledgeable football fan, former player, former coach and sports writer and from what I’ve seen and what you have shown I cannot in my right mind call you a football player. Just look at Davone Bess if I’m not making any sense. Bess went undrafted by 32 NFL teams for 8 rounds due to size, speed and skill set yet got invited to camp and just flat out showed that despite his physical limitations the kid is just flat out a football player. Brian Hartline, another under sized guy considered to have a somewhat limited skill set, seems to be coming along nicely as well proving that he too has the opportunity to excel in this league. I’m sorry, Ted, I’m sure you’re a great guy and it isn’t your fault you were drafted prematurely with expectations that were so unrealistic that it makes Michael Jordan’s thoughts of a Major League Baseball career seem feasible but it is your fault that you run poor routes, it is your fault that drop almost every pass that you get both hands on, it is your fault that you short arm passes and in the end zone that’s just uncomprehensible, that you run out of bounds 1 yard shy of a first down, that you constantly slide down to avoid contact and that your effort level, heart and desire to get better is just flat out non-existent. That is unacceptable and not a trait of a football player in general let alone one that you want on your team. I’m sorry, Ted, but you are an embarrassment to the entire Miami Dolphins organization and fan base but that being said, it’s not all bad news. There’s is some good news for you Ted. Are you listening? Pay attention to this because it’s very important and just might save your career. The good news is that you and only you have the power to change this perception.

Sincerely,

Disgruntled Dolfan