The banged up Miami Dolphins will be limping into Buffalo as a 3.5 point favorite to improve their record to 6-5 and in very much in the mix in the AFC Playoff picture. The dysfunctional 3-7 Bills will be drooling over the opportunity to play spoiler after losing a game they could have won in Jacksonville, 18-15.
Miami has been plagued with injuries losing numerous key starters for the year but remarkably have had little drop off with their back ups. Chad Henne has played efficiently, effectively and poised in place of Chad Pennington. Vontae Davis and Sean Smith have stepped up and proved to be exceptional draft picks this past year in place of Pro Bowl corner Will Allen. They get to face Terrell Owens and Lee Evans this week after already having matched up against the league’s very best in Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, Roddy White and Vincent Jackson. Ronnie Brown goes down, Ricky Williams steps in and shoulders the load with 3 touchdowns against the Panthers and consecutive 100+ yard performances. It would take an entire medical staff and a press conference to detail the injuries and events that have unfolded on the offensive line. All you need to know is Nate Garner took snaps at 4 positions on the offensive line against Carolina. Justin Smiley, Vernon Carey and both centers, Jake Grove and Joe Berger had to leave the game due to injury. Garner stepped in and displayed a versatility of Magic Johnson proportions. He even took a snap at tight end and at that point I was pretty sure his next snap was going to be directly to him out of the Wildcat. Charlie Anderson and Cameron Wake even stepped in and played phenomenal football after Head Coach Tony Sparano benched out cast Joey Porter for undisclosed reasons. That wasn’t due to injury but the point being the Dolphins reserves have been more important to the teams 5-5 record than J. Lo’s booty has been to her career.
The Dolphins are now forced to replace run-stopper and savvy 13-year veteran, Jason Ferguson, in the middle of their defense. Paul Soliai, Tony McDaniel and Randy Starks will be asked to plug that giant hole with little drop off if Miami is serious about making a playoff push. No small request considering the success or failure of the entire defensive unit falls solely on the push up front against the pass and the ability to stuff the run.
Luckily, the Dolphins get the Bills this week as sort of a litmus test as to where they stand and more importantly the opportunity to gain invaluable experience and cohesion all in the form of a victory – there I’ve said it – before hosting New England in what will amount to the AFC East driver seat. (More on that later.) The Dolphins will be flying back to Miami Sunday afternoon after defeating the Buffalo Bills improving to a 6-5 record. It’s pretty simple really; if they get on that plane at 5-6 then all of this is moot and we start talking about whether or not we would rather have Dez Bryant or Damian Williams lining up at WR for us next year.
It’s pro football and Buffalo defeating Miami at home would be far less shocking than Oakland upsetting Cincinnati or Kansas City stunning Pittsburgh last week but considering that Miami’s season is on the line anything other than a Dolphins drubbing of Buffalo would be very disappointing. Miami is the better team in nearly every single area statistically not to mention they’ve already dominated Buffalo by 4 touchdowns, 38-10, in week 4. Buffalo is the 3rd most penalized team (75-566) while only Jacksonville, with one less, has fewer penalties than Miami 51-418). Only the Colts at 50% are better than Miami (49%) on 3rd down conversions, Buffalo is 31st at 27%. Buffalo is better defensively on 3rd downs, however, allowing only 42% converted while Miami is tied for dead last forcing a punt 33% of the time but other than that it’s pretty one sided in Miami’s favor. Aside from all the “any given Sunday” crap the Dolphins are a road favorite despite being only a .500 team and decimated by injuries. Bottom line: Miami better win this game.
Now that we’ve established a Dolphins victory let’s get back to the Patriots and the AFC East race. Walk with me here: With 7-3 New England heading into New Orleans as under dogs to face the 10-0 Saints it’s very possible, if not likely, that Miami and New England collide in week 13 with only 1 game in the standings separating them and the division title at stake. Miami would be 4-1 in the division (assuming they beat Buffalo) with New England at 3-1 but having already beaten Miami 3 weeks earlier and only hapless Buffalo remaining on their divisional schedule, essentially putting them at 4-1 as well. The goal and key to the AFC East crown is a 5-1 record in the division and only one team can achieve it.
In other words, the entire season will be decided in week 13 when the Dolphins host New England and despite what you may think the Dolphins stand an excellent chance of winning that game. Why? Consider this: in addition to Miami getting 10 days to rest, heel and gel for Buffalo the Patriots are forced to travel to New Orleans for a much hyped and likely physically and emotionally demanding game on Monday Night Football against the undefeated Saints and then turn around and travel to Miami for their 2nd consecutive road game on a short week to face a hungry and motivated division rival. Ironically, the NFL’s “hardest schedule” is doing Miami a huge favor and putting the Dolphins in the perfect scenario to defend their title as long as they don’t overlook Buffalo.
Key to this…. Beat Buffalo!
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