(3-4) Miami Dolphins Vs. (5-2) New England Patriots (-10.5)
Gillette Stadium – 1:00 PM EST
Foxborough, MA
Miami Dolphins fans and players alike may view the New York Jets, who by the way Miami swept this season (Easily. Pfft.), as our arch nemesis but every year the schedule comes out those same fans and players circle the two games against the New England Patriots as the most anticipated. You see, “we” expect to beat the Jets, they are beneath us in our eyes. I assure you the Jets feel the same way about the Dolphins and if you didn’t believe that prior to Miami sweeping them then I’m sure Head Coach Rex Ryan and linebacker Bart Scott’s pouty rants changed your mind. The Patriots and Tom Brady are considered to have set the bar for excellence in the NFL and after Spygate they are marked. The difference is the Dolphins expect to beat the Jets, they hope to beat the Patriots. Historically speaking the Dolphins have played the Patriots tough and last year first meeting the Wildcat was unveiled and resulted in a drubbing that New England has not forgotten. The good news is the Patriots cannot bully this Dolphins team. Miami is too good. The bad news is catching the Patriots off guard isn’t going to happen. New England is too good. As a matter of fact the Patriots are starting to look like the 16-0 Patriots of old. Frightening. Hence, the reason the Dolphins circled their two meeting. Whether it’s admitted or not, it’s a measuring stick. Oh by the way, a win here would put Miami at 4-0 in the AFC East and only 1 game behind the Patriots with a very manageable and softer second half schedule coming up. A loss and the Dolphins would likely have to have a 7-1 second half with some help to make the post season. No pressure or anything.
WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL:
I’m just going to say it, Miami has to throw the ball down the field. They looked awful against the Jets and if it wasn’t for Ted Ginn’s heroics with two kick returns for touchdowns the Dolphins would be sitting at 2-5 and talking draft strategy. Teams are not afraid of the Chad Henne and the Dolphins receivers, therefore loading up the box and strategizing against the Wildcat. Miami was #1 in the league rushing the football at over 175 yards per game 2 weeks ago and they have suddenly slipped to 3rd averaging still a healthy 154.3 yards per contest. New England isn’t exactly the steel curtain ranking 15th against the run and allowing 109.4 yards per game on the ground. Overall the Patriots rank 6th allowing only 285 yards a game. Miami has to figure out a way to get tight end Anthony Fasano involved in the game. His face should be on a milk carton at this point. It’s not entirely his fault or Ted Ginn’s or Chad Henne’s entirely for that matter. At some point the Dolphins have to trust their players and drop back and throw it. Yes, Henne hold on to the ball too long. Yes, Ginn has dropped key passes. Yes, Fasano hasn’t shown up this season but the coaches just have to trust their players and make the correct calls to alleviate some of the pressure form the defense and keep them honest. Make the defense fear Ginn’s speed and Henne’s arm. Make the defense fear Fasano dominating the middle of the field. Make the defense play on their heels and unable to load the box to stop the Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams show.
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL:
Pray. New England is lethal through the air, Miami has been shredded through the air. The Fins have already faced the likes of Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers and Drew Brees so the Patriots aren’t likely to throw something at them more complex or difficult to stop than what they have already faced but the trick is stopping it, since they have yet to thus far this season. Miami has allowed 236.0 passing yards per game (21st in the NFL) while the Patriots are averaging 291.0 yards a game (2nd in the NFL). It’s pretty clear that Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker will be looking to exploit the soft spot in the Dolphins defense. TE Ben Watson has to even be considered a dangerous weapon since the Dolphins have struggled all year stopping them and any receiver for that matter down the middle of the field. It’s a broken record at this point, the Dolphins must get better at their downfield coverage and not allow receivers to run freely down the field. Stop it, they will find success, don’t stop it and expect the same result as what happened to Indianapolis and New Orleans. The Fins have been excellent at getting after the passer and once again it will prove to be vital in helping out rookie corners Sean Smith and Vontae Davis by disrupting Brady’s rhythm and constantly pressuring him into making quicker decisions than he would like. Jason Taylor always plays the Patriots well and must be licking his chops to get another sack on Brady. The Dolphins should be able to stuff Laurence Maroney and the Patriots 14th ranked rushing attack since Miami is #6 in the league allowing only 92 yards per game with a 3.6 yard average. Besides, it’s no secret the Patriots will be looking to set up the run through the pass and their short quick passing style leaves them little concern about their running game.
KEY MATCH UP:
Wes Welker Vs. Vontae Davis
The former Dolphin is one of the peskier guys in the NFL. There is no one in football tougher to defend on 3rd and 4 than Wes Welker. He will be the target of likely 15-20 Brady throws and what he does with them will likely decide the Dolphins fate. Welker keep drives alive, he moves the chains and keeps defenses on the field and on their heels. The uber athletic Sean Smith at 6’3” will probably spend a good portion of his day trying to stop the great 6’4” Randy Moss leaving Vontae Davis to try to shut down Welker. These kids have the skills but it’s going to be up to Dolphins Defensive Coordinator Paul Pasqualoni to make the right call and not allow the Patriots to catch them in bad matchups. What we don’t want is Channing Crowder lined up across from Welker. That would be bad. Welker creates that type of problem.
FEARLESS PREDICTION: (Based on my record this season…)
The Dolphins have no chance of winning this game. It will be over by halftime. Chad Henne will not be able to throw the ball effectively. Ted Ginn has no prayer of making any legitimate contribution offensively and he most certainly won’t be able to duplicate the aberration of last week in the return game. Joey Porter and Jason Taylor are far too old to apply any pressure on Tom Brady and Vontae Davis and Sean Smith are far too young and inexperienced to present any defensive problems for Randy Moss and Wes Welker. The Patriots are the best team in the history of the NFL and the Dolphins are still rebuilding and years away. My 100% Stone Cold LOCK of the Century!!!!
Dolphins 13
Patriots 38
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