NFL Picks – Week 1

By Ronn Burner • on September 10, 2009

Football is finally here, which mean every Joe Schmoe around will make claims that make you sick. “I knew they were going to win by 20!” “What were you thinking taking those guys.” That guy just annoys the hell out of me so each week I will post a short thought or two on each game and post a prediction against the spread (ATS) and a final score. For no reason whatsoever other than just simply putting it out there and hoping to get some criticism as to why I’m such an idiot. My trick… it’s simple. Vegas begs us to bet one way and baits us with something that looks like an “easy” win or “lock” so when we bite they lick their chops and watch the other side win so they can add more amzaing Hotels to their sky line. I like talking lines and covers so here’s my thoughts. My favorite 3 games are in red with an asterisk (*) denoting so. I’ll tell you right now that two games jump out as “sucker” bets, Minnesota and Philadelphia. I’m not saying I know it all but to me that is Vegas telling us to pick them. I’ll take Cleveland and Carolina. Oh by the way, I don’t know nothing.

Week 1 – September 13, 2009

(Thur.) Tennessee @ Pittsburgh -5.5

No way the Champs lose their home opener, right? Heinz Field will be loud and going bonkers and the Steelers will be amped. Tennessee will keep it close and try to win the field position battle but it won’t be enough in this low scoring affair.

Steelers 20-16 (Steelers 13-10 OT)

Hines Ward. Whew.

Kansas City @ Baltimore -12.5
The Ravens are for real and will show everyone why. Their defense will dominate and this one won’t be close. The Chiefs will struggle to move the ball and score points. Ray Rice will have a huge day running the ball.
Ravens 31-13 (Ravens 38-24)

More shocking? Ravens gave up a lot of points. Ravens scored a lot of points.

ny jets @ Houston -4.5
A cold weather team, playing on the road in the ridiculous Houston heat, with a rookie quarterback starting his 1st game. I’ll take Houston. Not to mention that Matt Schaub and company should be vastly improved.
*Texans 24-17 (NYJ 24-7)

Mark Sanchez. Wow.

Dallas @ Tampa Bay +5.5
The Cowboys just have too many weapons offensively for the Bucs to contain. Tampa will try to eat clock and put together long drives. If they can do so and keep Tony Romo of the field and out of rhythm it should be closer than you might think.
Cowboys 24-20 (Cowboys 34-21)

Tony Romo looked great.

Philadelphia @ Carolina +1.5
I hate this line. It makes me feel like Vegas is begging you to take The Eagles. You know what that means? Bet Carolina! The Eagles will be a very good playoff team and Carolina has some defensive line issues to work out but I expect DeAngelo Williams to run wild.
Panthers 27-23 (Eagles 38-10)

Vegas is brilliant, I am stupid.

Detroit @ New Orleans -13.5
This has blowout written all over it. Making me think it won’t be but I just can’t take Detroit here on the road with a rookie QB. Despite the rookie, Matt Stafford I still think Detroit will be much better on both sides of the ball than expected. I see 3 maybe 4 wins but many competitive games. Just not this one.
Saints 34-20 (Saints 45-27)

Drew Brees. Oh my gawd.

Minnesota @ Cleveland +4.5
Cleveland can expect a barrage of Adrian Peterson early and often. The Vikings smothering defense will give Brady Quinn fits but the Browns are better than advertised and the Vikings can’t blow anybody out. I like the home dog to cover but still lose a close one.
Vikings 23-20 (Vikings 34-20)

AP is disgusting. 2000 yards is a lock if he stays healthy. 2300 yards is possible.

MIAMI @ atlanta -4.5
Miami will run all over the Falcons defense keeping Matt Ryan and that potent Falcons offense on the sideline. Atlanta should find some success through the air and Michael Turner is capable of taking over any game but I’m calling for the upset here. Take the moneyline. (Editors Note: Betting with heart here.)
Dolphins 27-20 (Falcons 19-7)

Either Atlanta is unbelievably good or Miami is unbelievably bad. Ugly game. Fins are soft. Atlanta crushed them.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis -4.5
The Colts on their home turf are always tough but jack Del Rio always seems to get his guys to play Peyton Manning and the Colts tough. David Garrard is much better than he gets credit for and another reason this one will be closer than expected.
Colts 27-23 (Colts 14-12)

Pesky Jags always play Peyton and the Colts tough. Reggie Wayne dominated.

Denver @ Cincinnati -4.5
Call me crazy but I think the Bengals will be very good this year and should have no problem looking like it as they face the Broncos who I expect to be one of the leagues bottom feeders. The Cinci offense with a healthy Carson Palmer and focused Chad Ochocinco should be potent.
Bengals 27-13 (Broncos 12-7)

Brandon Stokley’s fluky miracle late Touchdown was the only watchable play. Bengals should be very disappointed.

St. Louis @ Seattle -8.5
Steven Jackson is great, unfortunately he is the Rams only legit player and that won’t be anywhere near enough against a much-improved Seahawks team. Matt Hasselback should have a field day against a horrible Rams defense.
Seahawks 30-13 (Seahawks 28-0)

Impressive win earning a shutout in the NFL even if it is the pathetic Rams.

Washington @ NY Giants -6.5
I just get the feeling that the Giants will be back to their Super Bowl form and the Redskins will take a step back from mediocrity to not good. Despite the division rivalry this just feels like a Giants easy win.
*Giants 23-10 (NYG 23-17)

Giants look very solid all the way around but that defense is ferocious.

San Francisco @ Arizona -6.5
Mike Singletary will get his troops to play hard and tough but Kurt Warner and that high-powered Cardinals offense will be just too much for the 49ers to deal with. Despite the improving Niners offense they really have more than Frank Gore, which will not be enough to keep up.
*Cardinals 27-13 (49ers 20-16)

Super Bowl hangover? Kurt Warner was harassed all day.

Chicago @ Green Bay -3.5
I don’t care what the situation is, when these two teams play each other and the line is over 3, TAKE THE POINTS. Bitter rivals and the addition of Jay Cutler, the emergence of Devin Hester at WR and Matt Forte a banafide elite back, I think the Bears can keep up with and score on a good Green Bay team.
Bears 27-24 (Packers 21-15)

Jay Cutler looked bad. Aaron Rodgers didn’t. Losing Urlacher for the year is unfortunate.

(MNF) Buffalo @ New England -10.5
The last time Tom Brady played football he threw for 50 touchdowns. The Patriots are back and although they may not set scoring records this year I don’t think they’re going to struggle. Buffalo is a mess and Fred Jackson is a solid stand in for suspended Marshawn Lynch but he’s not going to be enough and T.O. isn’t going to be the savior Bills fans are hoping for.
Patriots 34-20

Horseshoes and hand greneades. Just adds to the Patriots mystique and the Bills doldrums.

(Weird other MNF) San Diego @ Oakland +9.5
Oakland can’t possibly be as bad as advertised and I’ve never even taken a sip of the Chargers punch so despite the obvious expected blowout I’m going with the big time home dog here. The Chargers are dangerous offensively but the Raiders defense is pretty good actually and I think they have enough weapons to put points on the board this year behind Darren McFadden.
Chargers 27-20

Wow. A game that actually went as I envisioned it would. The Chargers are not as good and the Raiders are not as bad as advertised.

Week 1 Record ATS: 6-10
Overall Record ATS: 6-10

Week 1 Best Bets: 0-3